Indiana Pacers (1-3) vs Washington Wizards (3-1)
It took six games for the Indiana Pacers to defeat the Washington Wizards in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season as Roy Hibbert and company were in full Struggle-mode and looking nothing like the contenders they had once been. While the Pacers are certainly not contenders anymore, Hibbert looks like he remembered how to play basketball again. The problem now is the Wizards are working to build themselves closer to taking that contender role in the Eastern Conference, and Indiana is shell of its former self. Pacers: Old (injured) and busted. Washington: Young and ready to take the next step. We can say it a million times, but the most frustrating thing about the Pacers right now is knowing that injuries are the real reason behind the drop off from last year. Missing a franchise player like Paul George is devastating enough, but losing David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson is only compounding the issue. The Pacers only really have a 11-man roster right now, so let’s try to keep the current set of struggles in context as they are addressed.
Turnovers (18.3 a game) have been absolutely devastating to the Pacers so far and arguably cost them their last two games. Against both the Hawks and Bucks, the Pacers were able to cut the down into single-possession games before their opponent put them away. There was a total of 48 points off turnovers in those games and it doesn’t take deep analysis to see why that is a problem. Cut those in half and that maybe Indiana is in position to win instead of just play it close and lose. Luis Scola, Donald Sloan, and C.J. Miles have been leading the team in turnovers, with Chris Copeland not far behind. While Sloan and Miles at least make up with it with about 10 points a game, Scola has 3.5 turnovers to 6.5 points a game. He’s by far the biggest hole on the line-up so far, with a -14.8 +/- thanks to his poor defense. Sloan is second worst on the team at -10.3, and Miles is a little further down at -8. While Scola’s minutes have been taken down to around 21 minutes a game, Miles and Sloan are playing starters minutes. And just for the record, Copeland has a +8.3, so he’s on #TeamNotKillingThePacersChances
If these players keep turning the ball over, it isn’t going to get any better against Washington. The Wizards have been scoring 16.3 points a game off 19.5 turnovers by their opponents. The Knicks are the closest to the Pacers as far as pace, and they struggled in their 98-83 loss to Washington, turning the ball over 18 times for 14 points. I don’t imagine the Pacers are magically going to fix these turnover issues on the second game of a back-to-back.
There are a lot of match-ups to hate for game. John Wall vs Donald Sloan, C.J. Miles vs Paul Pierce, Nene vs Luis Scola, none of those are favorable in anyway to Indiana. I think Hibbert will do better against Marcin Gortat than he did in the playoffs, but I don’t think you can count on that as a sure thing in any way. It is hard to see where Indiana is going to get an advantage in the game. Pacers fans can hope Copeland has his moments against Otto Porter or Andre Miller, but that won’t likely be enough. I think the Washington bench might roll some momentum over from their performance against the Knicks.
Who to watch on the Wizards: Marcin Gortat may not always be matched up against Hibbert as the Wizards second and third most used lineups have had Drew Gooden at the center and Gortat at power forward. That means Scola vs Gortat. That doesn’t seem any better than against Nene and I can see either eating Scola alive.
Who to watch on the Pacers: Chris Copeland has been leading the Pacers with 16.8 points a game but has been shooting at only 39.3 percent from the field on 14 shots a game. The only reason this is acceptable is because of his 3-point shooting. He is hitting 3.5 of 8.5 of them a game. His shooting needs to improve, but he has been a net-positive influence on the Pacers.
The Big Question
How bad is this going to get? This is probably the best team the Pacers have played this year and they’re doing it on the end of a back-to-back I want to be surprised, but I’m not optimistic about that happening.
If you have followed Tim Donahue on Twitter, you might have seen his recent tweets about the Pacers starters simply not getting it done so far this season.
So, in 5 mins of action starting w/ tie score this yr IND's starting lineup - Sloan, Miles, S Hill, Scola, Hibbert - has been outscored 17-2
— Tim Donahue (@TimDonahueZ) November 5, 2014
They've posted an OffEff of 28.6/100 and a DefEff of 174.2/100, and eFG% of .167 while allowing .700.
— Tim Donahue (@TimDonahueZ) November 5, 2014
Of course, it's not like that's what's killing them. They've been outscored by 20 in their other 47 minutes on the floor.
— Tim Donahue (@TimDonahueZ) November 5, 2014
They are simply outmanned as they’re playing a 3rd option at point and 2nd options at shooting guard, small forward and power forward. Injuries are reason, but that isn’t going to magically fix itself as West has been ruled out for another week, Hill for two more, and Watson’s status is uncertain.
Things will get better eventually.
For perspective, last year's starters were -18 in 128 mins of action starting with a tie score. +226 in 664 mins w/ margin <5 1 way or other
— Tim Donahue (@TimDonahueZ) November 5, 2014
Betting Line
The Wizards are a -9.5 favorite against the Pacers with a over/under of 188.5. I thing it is tough to take any team in almost any match up as a 10 point favorite, but with Indiana’s injury depleted roster, I think Washington can get the win. I’d take the under on points with both teams being tired at the tail end of back-to-back games.