Just like the Indiana Pacers, 8p9s is in training camp mode. Over the next few weeks, we will be welcoming some new contributors. Some will make the team and some will just get a nice workout. Today’s entry is from William Furr, an avid Pacers fan who rarely misses a game. If you would like to try out for 8p9s, email 8pts9secs@gmail.com.
The two biggest reasons for Indiana Pacers fans to have high hopes this year were lost when Lance Stephenson decided his practices should be spent challenging His Airness, and when Paul George suffered a horrific leg injury while playing for Team USA.
The Pacers do not have a realistic shot at contending for a title with their best player (sometimes) in a walking boot on the sideline. But they also do not appear to be interested in following the Philadelphia 76ers model of fielding a D-League team peppered with rookies.
Many fans are passively rooting for a bad year and a trip to the lottery, but years of evidence suggest none of the trio of Larry Bird, Donnie Walsh, or Herb Simon have any desire to intentionally position their team to lose. Combine that with Coach Vogel’s constant positivity and drive to succeed, and I think this year’s Pacers team will look very similar to the Derrick Rose-less Bulls teams from recent years. They will be intensely competitive on defense, but undermanned on offense.
I’ve identified three keys to determining whether PG’s urging of his guys to get in the playoffs for him to return will succeed, or whether his return will wait until next year regardless of his health.
1. Can the Hometown Hero Rediscover “IUPUI Mode”?
In George Hill’s senior year at IUPUI, he averaged 21.5 points per game and nearly 7 rebounds, while shooting 54.5% from the field and 45% from behind the arc. I don’t think Hill’s NBA averages will ever reach those heights, but it’s up to him to show those numbers weren’t completely due to the Summit League Competition he faced. Hill’s aggression on the offensive end has visibly tapered off since moving to point guard, and it got to the point last year that it could be argued that his presence on the floor was a net negative to the offense. If the team is to stay afloat in Paul George’s absence, Hill will need to step up his game on offense in a big way.
Prediction: Hill gets to see an increased number of minutes at the 2 playing alongside CJ Watson, and rediscovers the aggression that Pacers fans have been clamoring for while putting up just north of 15 points per game.
2. Will Solomon Hill or Chris Copeland Start at Small Forward?
Throughout the preseason, coach Frank Vogel has chosen to start C.J. Miles at the 3 spot. However, Miles lacks the size and strength to defend even moderately bulky small forwards, and I can’t see Vogel sticking to that for long before his defensive roots force him to try a change.
Chris Copeland and Solomon Hill are waiting in the wings (excuse the terrible pun) to take that opportunity, and both provide very different skill sets.
Hill has the potential to be a solid defender, though not yet near the elite status Vogel has been selling. He can ball watch on occasion, but is overall a positive on that end. However, he has proven to be much less useful on the offensive side of the ball, shooting only 42.5% from the field and 30% from the arc in limited minutes last season. He reportedly spent the offseason working on his corner 3, and being proficient at that shot would probably be enough to win him the starting role (though he suffered a setback when an injury sidelined him for awhile this summer).
Short of that, we have the other side of the coin: fan favorite Chris Copeland, a long-range gunner who can’t credibly guard any position on defense. If Cope can improve his defense to a passable range, he could win Vogel’s trust enough to get 20-25 minutes a game, and a spot in the starting lineup.
Prediction: Vogel starts all three at different points of the year, eventually returning to starting Miles as the nominal small forward and trusting the vet and the defensive scheme to hold up well enough.
3. Roy Hibbert: Bad year or a Big Man in Decline?
Despite setting a career high in minutes per game last year at just over 30 (30.2) and playing 73 of a possible 82 games, Roy Hibbert’s production plummeted. His point, rebound, assist, and block averages per game declined for the second consecutive season, and he turned in the second-worst shooting year of his career.
Hibbert will never be a 20/10, 60% shooting type of center, but the Pacers will never ask him to be. If he can return to his 2011-12 form on the offensive side of the ball (13 points/9 rebounds/2 assists/50% shooting) while maintaining his mastery of the verticality rule, it will go a long way towards keeping the Pacers afloat while PG is out.
While offseason trade rumors surfaced about the Pacers moving Hibbert, I can’t see that happening unless either the big man completes his decline and is no longer a useful player (on both offense and defense), or some team on the cusp of title contention makes a godfather offer to the Pacers of first round picks and expiring contracts.
Prediction: I think Roy, minus the distraction provided by “some selfish dudes” and knowing to keep things in-house, returns to his previous borderline All-Star form with a line in the neighborhood of 15 points/8 rebounds/2 blocks/47% shooting/2 photobombs.