A nightmare scenario is looming for the Pacers

BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 9: Victor Oladipo #4 of the Indiana Pacers grabs the rebound against the Boston Celtics on February 9, 2018 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - FEBRUARY 9: Victor Oladipo #4 of the Indiana Pacers grabs the rebound against the Boston Celtics on February 9, 2018 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers
CLEVELAND, OH – JANUARY 26: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers reacts during the final second of the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on January 26, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Pacers 115-108. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

 Scenario 3: The Pacers get the 7-8 seed, swept in playoffs (Nightmare)

No one wants to see this, but the possibility of it happening shot up considerably after Thursday’s events. This Pacers team is well-cemented in the playoffs. If they fell, it probably wouldn’t be hard enough to knock them out. And they still probably aren’t good enough to actually make noise once April hits.

What does that leave? The nightmare scenario. The one that Pacers fans lived last year. The one that was the nail in the coffin for the Paul George era in Indianapolis. There is a decent chance that this team ends up with a bad playoff seed and ends up getting swept (or gentleman swept) in the first round.

The Pacers are probably the 7th or 8th best East team on paper. Their record reflects that they’ve  outplayed their hand, but the final stretch of their season may bring them back down to earth. It seems fair to say that the Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers, Wizards and Bucks are solidly above this team and will likely finish above the Pacers in the standings. Their teams objectively have more talent. It would take a miracle (i.e Scenario 1) for the Pacers to leap past any of them.

That leaves the Pacers, 76ers, Heat and Pistons to fight for spots 6-9. The Pacers are probably landing somewhere in the middle. But even if the end up 6th, that means they’re facing one of the Big 3 teams in the East in the first round (Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers). Can this squad with little to no playoff experience put an actual dent into one of those squads?

It’s a bleak and pessimistic outlook, but it’s also a realistic one. After not changing anything at the deadline, this Pacers team might have cemented its place in no-man’s land for the 2017-18 season.

Such a scenario gives the Pacers the worst of both worlds. If they get swept by one of the blue bloods of the East, they don’t have much “success” to add to their development or chemistry. It’ll make 2017-18 feel like a failure, even though they weren’t expected to do much anyway.

Plus, their 2018 draft pick will be in the mid-to-high teens, which can often be the difference between a core piece and a role player. The Pacers lose out on both ends, and enter 2018-19 not much better off than they were at the beginning of this year.

It’s a bleak and pessimistic outlook, but it’s also a realistic one. After not changing anything at the deadline, this Pacers team might have cemented its place in no-man’s land for the 2017-18 season. It’s hard to see that given the team’s recent success, but a storm may be coming that makes an ugly mess out of what has consistently been an exciting year.

For what it’s worth, the players have gone out of their way to show their faith in this team in the final few months of the season. Faith can go a long way. But at the end of the day, talent matters, and the Pacers’ luck just might run out. A nightmare scenario is looming, and it’ll take one of two unlikely scenarios to prevent it.

Next: 8p9s Roundtable: No moves, good news?

But everything about this Pacers season has been unlikely, so maybe there’s still plenty of hope for this team yet.