Domantas Sabonis truly is a star, now it’s just time for the world to take notice.
Welcome to Pacer Profile, the series where myself and 8.9 Seconds contributor Aaron Braaksma take turns breaking down and analyzing the players who will be suiting up in that notorious navy and gold for the Indiana Pacers during the 2020-2021 NBA Season.
Today we are breaking down the skill set, strengths, weaknesses, and projected utilization and production of the Pacers’ star big man Domantas Sabonis.
Strengths
Scoring: Interior Dominance
From a scoring perspective, Sabonis is making it hard to warrant putting a single defender on him if stopping an easy two points is the opposing team’s objective. In 2019-20, Sabonis was extremely effective inside the arc because of his borderline unarguable post-game, filled with powerful drop steps, soft-touched post hooks, and some nasty post spins that would make his father Arvydas proud.
Each of these look as if they’ve been done hundreds of times, as his footwork might be some of the purest and fundamentally sound in the league.
In the aforementioned 2019-20 season, he took 92% of his field goals from inside the arc and converted on about 56% of these attempts. This speaks volumes about his ability to convert inside, and he gets lots of these buckets after coming out of a pick and roll, where he is a great diving big man out of this pick and roll situation.
To put the icing on the scoring cake, he appears to have some real upside as a shooter, as his standstill mid-range shooting is already a viable option.
Passing: 6-foot-11 offensive hub
Simply put, Domantas Sabonis is in the same tier as a player like Nikola Jokic when it comes to big men who pass like elite floor generals. It’s difficult to find plays where the Pacers’ point forward doesn’t hit the right man in an offensive set, and he routinely manipulates defenses with his needle threading passes to cutters or open three-point bombers like T.J. Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, Doug McDermott, and Justin Holiday.
He seems to know exactly where everyone is on the floor at any given time and he even makes passes based on assumption, not actually seeing a teammate yet, a skill only possessed by elite passers. He is a bit dependent on his left hand when making these plays, but his decision making is quick enough to mitigate this deficiency.
To throw some stats at you, in the 2019-20 season Sabonis made 67 passes a game, which was in the top three of players in the entire league, ahead of star passers like Luka Doncic and Lebron James. Although he only averaged five assists a game, he dished out 8.2 “potential assists” a game, which shows his ability to hit teammates in scoring position.
Rebounding: A real glass-gobbler
Sabonis is becoming one of the better rebounders in the league, and that is largely due to his instinctual “nose for the ball” and more importantly how he utilizes his superior strength and box out skills. Domantas has developed the ability to box out out of necessity because he can’t just out-length everyone like some bigs. Although he is 6-foot-11, his wingspan matches that, which doesn’t allow a lot of error when playing against players with over 7-foot wingspans.
Domantas actually seems to use this as a biological advantage, because it seems that this “average” wingspan for his size has actually allowed him to throw on much more muscle than his tall peers, which in turn can boost his post scoring and the aforementioned rebounding.
In 2019-20, he averaged 12.4 rebounds, which put him in the top five, while being top twelve in offensive rebounding with around three a game. They say whoever controls the glass will win the game, and there are nights when it seems like he is doing that all by himself.
With all of the previously listed strengths being enough to put him among the best big men in the league, there are still serious chinks in his armor that are holding the 24 year old back from superstardom.
Weaknesses
Defense: Thank God we have Myles Turner
While the former Gonzaga Bulldog is truly dominant on the offensive end, you could argue that he is a straight liability on defense. If it weren’t for his ability to lend plays via his work on the glass, he wouldn’t have tons of value on this side of the ball. With his below average lateral movement and sliding, he isn’t near a wing defender and most likely won’t ever be.
Although his strong, albeit limited wingspan allows him to fend off bullying big men from backing him down in the post, it doesn’t exactly help him when trying to deter shots at the rim or be a legit threat in passing lanes.
Shooting: Not enough three-point volume
Although the Pacer big man shot four threes in this season’s opener, three-point shot making is the final piece in the buffet of bucket-getting needed to make Sabonis a Jokic-level superstar offensive hub. Like I said earlier, his mid range game shows solid fundamentals and great touch around the rim could project that Domantas could in theory become a real three-point threat.
Because he is a 75% free throw shooter, we can probably assume that he could progress into a legit pick and pop threat someday. As of right now, we haven’t been given a big enough sample size to determine if this is true, as last season he only had a three-point attempt frequency of 7.9%.
No matter the talents and detriments a player may have, what’s more important is how they, and more vitally, their coach utilizes these skills in game action.
How should we utilize our All-Star Big?
Offense: New Nate’s engine to the Pacers offense
One development all nerdy Pacer fans alike should be watching throughout the year is how much the exposure of Pascal Siakam to Nate Bjorkgren as an assistant in Toronto will impact his utilization of Domantas Sabonis in Indiana as the new Head Coach.
Does he let Sabonis bring the ball up the court with his sneakily solid handle to initiate dribble hand-off situations or other dime dropping plays? Do we finally see an increase in three point volume with a coach who knows there is a three-point line? Do we see Sabonis’s elite passing ability used more frequently?
I’m assuming yes is the answer to all of these questions, and Nate Bjorkgren might’ve been the best thing to happen to Sabonis’s career because of these new freedoms that will further unlock his valuable skill set. He averaged five assists with a lack-luster coach, and in a newly spaced out offense that uses cutters and three-point bombing, I could see the All Star big man punch that number up to even seven a game if the ‘Cers flow through him like they should.
We will probably still see him in dive situations as that is where he is most difficult to guard, but I’m guessing Domantas will get plenty of opportunity as the offenses primary initiator in lots of sets this season.
You add even the slightest threat of a three-point shot to a player that is already killing defenses with interior scoring that demands double teams and next level passing, and you have one of the more valuable offensive big men in the NBA thanks to a system that finally suits his skill set.
Defense: Turner’s help-side assistant
Because of the defensive abilities that Domantas lacks, I see him utilized as a help man who uses his size to slow down slashers, allowing defensive stud Myles Turner to recover and rim protect as he does. I’d like to see his defensive IQ progress in some form, maybe in the way of more defensive communication, but with how high of an offensive load Sabonis could carry this season I’m not sure defense should be the priority yet.
Projected Stats
Because we could see an increase in Domantas Sabonis’s passing and overall usage rate, a realistic stat line could be along the lines of 20-24 points, 10-14 rebounds, and 5-7 assists a game. The biggest question is again, the three-point volume. If the Gonzaga alumni is utilized like he should and these realistic stats come to fruition, we could see an NBA caliber season out of the Power Forward in 2021.