How valuable is T.J. Warren to the future of the Indiana Pacers?
To the average NBA fan, T.J. Warren may seem like the least important starter for the Indiana Pacers. He is flanked by two All-Stars in Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, a fringe DPOY candidate and league-leading shot-blocker in Myles Turner, and a borderline All-Star in Malcolm Brogdon. Not only that, but Warren also has the lowest annual salary at $12 million this year compared to the rest of the starters being around $20million.
Yet most advanced metrics had Warren as the second-best player on the Pacers last year behind Sabonis, and we saw what he was able to do in the bubble as the first option. While advanced metrics aren’t everything, and he is definitely the least accomplished starter, he may be one of the most important Pacers because of the ceiling he showed at what I believe to be the most important position in the league.
Warren is under contract for two more years, and is eligible for an extension in the upcoming summer of 2021 for up to four years, $70 million. This is also the offseason when Victor Oladipo will be looking for his next contract, expecting a raise on his $21m a year to potentially that of a max deal.
So as we glance forward to what this team and its cap sheet may look like, it is important to consider what T.J. Warren is worth.
But more importantly: What is he worth to the Pacers?
What is T.J. Warren worth?
An extension of four years, $70 million would put Warren’s average annual salary at about $17.5 million. Without context, that doesn’t mean very much. However, the free agency period of 2020 brought a few contracts signed by players with a similar skillset at a similar stage in their career that can be used as a reference point.
As Pacers fans well know, 30 year old Gordon Hayward signed a four year deal for $30 million a year. Other deals include 26 year old Jerami Grant and 32 year old Danillo Gallinari signing three year deals for $20 million a year, and 31 year old Marcus Morris signing a four year deal for $16m a year.
But if we compare all those players to T.J. Warren, who will be 29 when he is a free agent in 2022, there is a legitimate argument that Warren is the most complete player of that group when factoring in age, offense, defense, and health.
T.J. is a much better defender than Gallinari, a more complete and selfless player than Morris, and has less significant injury concern than Hayward. Grant is the only player younger than what Warren will be at the time of his potential signing, but Warren is more versatile offensive player than Grant. All of this together makes it unclear if Warren will look for an extension when he can become a free agent and likely command a deal in the $20 million range.
So then the question becomes: What is T.J. Warren worth to the Pacers?
What is T.J. Warren worth to the Pacers?
Not only is there the external leverage from the market for SF/PFs, but Warren also has some internal leverage as the only Pacer who can consistently play SF/PF on both sides of the ball. Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott do a lot of great things, but are not suited to be full time PFs on the defensive end. This is even more evident right now since the Pacers are playing without Warren as he recovers from plantar fasciitis.
We know the Pacers won’t pay the luxury tax, which is understandable right now since we don’t know if this team can compete at a level worth paying the tax for. Until they prove otherwise, we can assume there is a hard cap at the $132.6 million expected for the 2021-22 season, with the potential to slightly rise in 2022-23 when T.J. Warren’s new deal would kick in.
Other than a trade sending a large salary out while receiving minimal salary back like what Boston did with Hayward, the Pacers will have to sacrifice depth in order to retain everyone in their starting lineup without going into the tax. The most straightforward path is the Pacers could simply opt to not bring back Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell, and Jeremy Lamb over the next two off-seasons.
McDermott and McConnell combine for $10.8 million that could be freed in 2021 for Oladipo’s raise, while Lamb could free up $10.5 million in 2022 for Warren’s raise. A little rich of a raise for both players right now, but it makes for easy math!
Except the Pacers won’t give each player an $11 million raise because Aaron Holiday and Edmund Sumner will also be free agents after the 2021-22 season alongside Warren. Holiday has earned a raise from his $4 million salary, and while Sumner may not be guaranteed another deal, at the very least those two present more variables to keep in mind moving forward.
Where does that leave the Pacers?
What to expect moving forward?
Since the Pacers can’t offer an extension to Warren until the summer of 2021, Victor Oladipo will almost definitely be the first domino to fall in regards to what options the team has. That may come in the form of a four-year, $113 million extension that could be agreed to any time this season, or could be whether or not the Pacers and Oladipo come to an agreement in free agency.
There could also be trades between then and now that drastically change what the Pacers look like on the court and on the cap sheet. A lot can change in a season, and the team does have some short term questions they need to answer before they get too far ahead of themselves.
But keeping an eye on the future while addressing the present is what great front offices do, so there is no doubt this thought has made it’s way through Bankers Life already.
My evaluation of Warren’s potential deal could be way off, and if Oladipo ends up leaving then the Pacers will have plenty of space to work with. This past free agency period showed that teams have no problem overpaying for wings, but it’s possible Warren could take less than my projected market value in the form of a long term extension.
Even though that would provide the team a little more wiggle room, the Pacers would have to find more players like Warren to squeeze all the value they can out of that few million dollars to stay towards the top of the East while staying under the salary tax.
All that said, T.J. Warren is without question one of the best value contracts in the league for the next two years at arguably the most important position in the league. While the Pacers have a more high profile decision to make with Oladipo, retaining T.J. Warren should be very high on Kevin Pritchard‘s list of priorities, especially if he can bring some of that bubble magic to the Pacers this year.