Indiana Pacers: Will Domantas Sabonis continue to improve?

Fresh off a contract extension and his first All-Star appearance, Domantas Sabonis is set to lead the Indiana Pacers in 2020-21.

Seen by many as a throw-in or project added to the Paul George trade, Domantas Sabonis has taken significant strides in each of his first three seasons as a Pacer. As a rookie with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2016-17, the big man averaged just 5.9 points 3.6 rebounds in 81 contests.

Since then, Sabonis has increased his scoring output and rebound numbers each year. During the COVID-19 disrupted season in 2019-20, he averaged 18.5 points and 12.4 rebounds prior to the season being suspended. Sabonis did so on an efficient 54% shooting from the field while also dishing out five assists.

His pre-Covid performance was enough to earn the first All-Star nod of Sabonis’ young career. He was the best player on a revamped Pacers squad that earned the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference without his presence in the Orland bubble.

Expectations for Sabonis will be sky-high during his fifth season in the league. He and the rest of the roster appear to be healthy. The roster is nearly unchanged while the landscape around the league saw a massive overhaul during the condensed offseason. Plus, the organization appears to have a young, progressive coach to usher the franchise into the modern era of NBA basketball.

At just 23-years-old at the time of his first all-star appearance, Sabonis became one of seven forwards/centers to earn their first midseason honor at 25-or-younger over the past five seasons. One of those seven big men was Bam Adebayo who also joined the group this season.

That leaves five other recent big men that earned respect early in their careers. Luckily for Pacer Nation, the other five names on the list continue to impress. Let’s take a look at how Sabonis’ first all-star season compare to other young big men in recent memory.

Andre Drummond – Cleveland Cavaliers

2015-16: 81 GP, 16.2 PPG, 52.1 FG%, 14.8 RPG, 1.5 STL, 1.4 BLK
2016-17: 81 GP, 13.6 PPG, 53 FG%, 13.8 RPG, 1.5 STL, 1.1 BLK

Andre Drummond is a double-double machine and has been for his entire career. He has averaged double figures in both categories in seven of eight seasons excluding his rookie campaign. On four occasions, Drummond has led the league in rebounds highlighted by his 16 per game during the 2017-18 season.

During the 2015-16 campaign, Drummond earned his first All-Star nod at 23-years-old. That season, the Detroit Pistons were made up of a hodgepodge of players. Some were towards the tail end of their career like Steve Blake while others were beginning to shine like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Tobias Harris.

That season, Drummond helped Detroit to the eighth seed in the East before being swept by the eventual NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers. In 2016-17, the Pistons’ roster was not much different in terms of roster make-up with the lack of a star player. That squad missed the playoffs as the 10 seed.

Following his first All-Star appearance, Drummond’s stats did slip slightly. This could be due to teams zeroing in their defensive strategies on the big man with the lack of offensive threat around him. Domantas Sabonis could see a similar defensive attack this year, especially if injuries continue.

Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves

2017-18: 82 GP, 21.3 PPG, 54.5%, 1.5 3PM, 12.3 RPG, 1.4 BLK
2018-19: 77 GP, 24.4 PPG, 51.8 FG%, 1.8 3PM, 12.4 RPG, 1.6 BLK

There is an argument to be made for KAT to have been an All-Star in 2016-17. He did compete in the Rising Star Challenge over All-Star weekend, but he had All-Star stats including 25.1 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. A detriment to him, the Minnesota Timberwolves finished that season with a 31-51 mark.

Despite scoring fewer points per game, Towns was named an All-Star in his third season. Minnesota was vastly improved, adding Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. The team squeezed into the playoffs as the eighth seed and even stole a game from Houston to avoid a first-round sweep.

In 2018-19, Butler was traded after just 10 games, Head Coach Tom Thibodeau was fired after 40 games, and the Timberwolves were back to the bottom of the pack in the West. Despite all that, Towns did manage to up his scoring average and began to develop the reputation as an outside shooter culminating in more than three made three-points per game last season.

Fans should not expect Domantas Sabonis to develop an outside shot, but he does have a much more established core around him than Towns has.

Joel Embiid – Philadelphia 76ers

2017-18: 63 GP, 22.9 PPG, 48.3 FG%, 11 RPG, 1.8 BLK
2018-19: 64 GP, 27.5 PPG, 48.4 FG%, 13.6 RPG, 1.9 BLK

Drafted prior to the 2014-15 campaign, Embiid appeared in just 31 games over the next three seasons. Finally, at full health, he has made the All-Star roster in each of the three seasons since.

During the 2017-18 season, “The Process” finally showed progress jumping from the 14 seasons the previous season all the way to the three seed with a 52-30 record. A strong combination of young stars and veteran leaderships grabbed a first-round win in the playoffs over the Miami Heat and set clear expectations for the future.

Embiid was clearly the best player the Philadelphia 76ers had during 2018-19. He improved in nearly every statistical category and pushed Philadelphia to legitimate title contenders evident by the seven-game series with the Toronto Raptors (eventual NBA Champions) that came down to one of the most iconic shots in NBA history.

While Embiid has maintained his status as a top-five, maybe top-three big man in the league, Philadelphia struggled in 2019-20 and may not return to championship contention this season. It goes to show, with some natural athleticism and the ability to score the ball inside can go a long way for any team.

Ben Simmons – Philadelphia 76ers

2018-19: 79 GP, 16.9 PPG, 56.3 FG%, 8.8 RPG, 7.7 AST, 1.4 STL
2019-20: 57 GP, 16.4 PPG, 58 FG%, 7.8 RPG, 8.0 AST 2.1 STL

Similar to Embiid, Simmons missed his entire rookie campaign before being named the league’s Rookie of the Year in 2017-18. He joined a team mixed with veteran leadership and young talent that earned the three seed in the Eastern Conference.

It was 2018-19 when Simmons became an All-Star for the first time after nearly averaging a triple-double. At 6’10”, 240-pounds, Simmons is often used as a primary ball-handler and he has thrived in the role.

Consistency has been the name of the game for Simmons. For each of the past three seasons, he has averaged 15.8, 16.9, and 16.4 points per game. Even better, Simmons rebound averages have been 8.1, 8.8, and 7.8. Even more incredibly, Simmons has dished out 8.2, 7.7, and 8.0. That consistency helped get Philadelphia back to the playoffs last season despite some questionable roster decisions leading to the team being swept by the Boston Celtics in the opening round.

Comparing Ben Simmons to Domantas Sabonis is a bit of a stretch. The only way they are almost the same size as humans, but their play styles are nearly the exact opposite. If Sabonis can find the same sense of consistency, Pacers fans will be incredibly happy.

Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets

2018-19: 80 GP, 20.1 PPG, 51.1 FG%, 10.8 RPG, 7.3 APG, 1.4 STL
2019-20: 73 GP, 19.9 PPG, 52.8 FG%, 9.7 RPG, 7 APG, 1.2 STL

Despite his seven-foot, 284-pound frame, Jokić has developed into one of the best all-around players in the NBA. His ability to score inside and out along with a natural ability to distribute the ball out of the post is the perfect skill set for a big man in the modern NBA.

In Jokić’s first All-Star season, the young Denver Nuggets improved from ninth in the West to the two-seed with a 54-28 record. In the first round of the playoffs, the Nuggets put the metaphorical nail in the coffin on the San Antonio Spurs dynasty before falling to the Portland Trail Blazers in a seven-game series.

The development of a young core around Jokić took some of the pressure off the big man in 2019-20. It took a pair of seven-game series for the three seed to get past the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in the Orland Bubble playoffs. It was the eventual NBA Champion Los Angeles Lakers that send the Nuggets home.

After a pair of All-Star seasons, Jokić appears to be leading a young championship-caliber team out of Denver. It’s no surprise to see his stats decline slightly with the team results continuing to improve. Ideally for Domantas Sabonis, the Pacers’ roster stays healthy and continues to develop taking some of the pressure off the young big man in a model similar to what Jokić saw in Denver last season.