The Indiana Pacers delightful 2017-18 season has long since ended, a fluorescently blinking caution light on LeBron James’ road to an eighth consecutive NBA Finals. But the journey for this Indiana team is far from over. The summer awaits.
The sweat had barely evaporated off of Victor Oladipo’s skin before he was firing off text messages to his trainer announcing that he was ready to work this summer to “take (his game) to another level.”
It’s the type of message a fan loves to see coming from their best player in the immediate wake of a game 7 defeat. The best season of his life — and best by a Secretariat-at-the-1973 Belmont margin — wasn’t good enough for him. There is a higher peak that Oladipo can summit. Or at least he believes that there is. If his transformative summer from a year ago can be any guide, then he’s probably right.
That’s a good launching point for this summer preview. The franchise’s most important player is striving to better his best. If that alone happens then the Indiana Pacers will be one of the three or four best teams in the Eastern Conference next season.
But that can’t be it, can it?
Oladipo taking the second leap does not magically fix the Pacers ineptitude when he missed games (0-7 without Vic in 2017-18). Nor does it guarantee that career years from key contributors (mainly Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison) are the beginning of a new normal instead of an aberration. It also doesn’t mean that Kevin Pritchard (who’s pulled the trigger on 17 trades in 4.5 years as the decision-maker in Portland and Indiana) will sit idly by sipping iced tea while twiddling his thumbs on his porch.
A summer of change lies ahead, if not for the Pacers then for the NBA as a whole.
Some moves will be seismic (LeBron’s next decision) while some will be inconsequential (whatever will Sacramento do with Bruno Caboclo!?). In between those two poles, volatile waters lurk. They will capsize some teams. Leave others adrift. But the opportunity is there too for the savviest few. If you can navigate these waters fluidly they can result in perennial success if not championships.
The most important piece is already in place: Oladipo seeking self-improvement. But what about the rest? Who should Indiana highlight as trade or free agent targets.
Which college players should realistically be at the top of the Pacers’ draft board. What about the current roster, where can Indiana internally improve on 48 wins. And what about the league as a whole, where will those big moves come from? In the story that follows, we will imperfectly do our best to read the stars and point out ways that this good Pacers team can become even better.
The Indiana Pacers current outlook
The tale of Indiana’s summer (like this article) begins with Victor Oladipo. To date — and this is a rough estimate — gallons of metaphorical and literal ink have been spilt chronically his brilliant season.
More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds
- 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
- Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
- 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
- 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
- Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?
He made a bunch of different “All” things: an All-NBA team, first team All-Defense, he was an All-Star. In summary he was pretty damn good. So, if it’s alright, we are not going to dwell on Vic too much here and instead focus on what’s around him
The toughest part of team building is locating a star player (check), the next step composing a roster that accentuates said star’s strengthens.
For instance it’s no coincidence that James Harden’s Rockets look for one-on-one matchups, nor that Golden State runs the flowing offense that a maestro like Stephen Curry would thrive in.
When we look at who Oladipo is, at his basketball core, he is an attacking guard. He’s lethal when driving the basket (he’s a 67% finisher at the rim), and when opponents have to overly commit to stopping his drives, at that point, is when his pull up threes (career-best 37%) can become a significant weapon.
Point Guard: Stay put or look to the future?
When finding an ideal backcourt-mate for Oladipo we need to take what Victor does into account. For example, attacking guards (like Vic) are at their best with the ball in their hands.
So, the best hypothetical point guard needs to be adept at moving off the ball and provide the dangerous spacing that both punishes defenses for collapsing on Oladipo and for not doing so. Cleveland did not possess such a fear in the Quarterfinals, they lustily doubled Oladipo and it worked. The second guard needs to be someone who can’t be ignored.
This second guard also needs to actually be a point guard, or at least a have a sure handle. Oladipo can have his lapses, on 25 occasions he turned the ball over 4 or more times; including a ten turnover game against Milwaukee on March 5.
Turnovers will always be a part of his game, it’s the necessary recoil from someone who plays aggressively. But this can’t be the case with the Pacers starting point guard, his sure-handness is an invaluable counter-balance that will allow Vic to take the necessary risks to play at the high level he does.
More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds
- 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
- Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
- 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
- 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
- Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?
A sure-handed point guard will also give Indiana an option when defenses double Oladipo, or to guide the team for the long stretches before Oladipo takes over.
The most perfect match would be a native Hoosier, the Grizzlies’ Mike Conley. When healthy he shoots well, creates his own shot, protects the ball and is a strong defender. The problem is he hasn’t been healthy in three years and makes far, far, far too much money to trade for.
Darren Collison fits most of these categories, which is probably why he had a career year in 2017-18. His 46.8% from three led the league as did his +4.1 assist/turnover ratio. He’s not a lockdown defender but he competes. If the Pacers stick with Collison none of this will change, he’s always sure-handed, he usually shoots well, and he’ll do his best on defense.
Truthfully, Collison, will likely never get the credit he deserves for how well he plaid this past year.
An alternate view with Will Furr
Bojan Bogdanovic (29 years old) and Darren Collison (30) put up career years for the 2017-18 Indiana Pacers. Bogdanovic excelled on offense in his first opportunity to start, and Collison flirted with a 50/40/90 year on his way to leading the NBA in 3 point shooting.
Both guys were entrenched starters on a 48 win Pacers team that took LeBron to the brink in the first round. A lot of folks are hot to run it back with the same 5 starters; all are potentially under contract, with Bojan and DC being partially guaranteed, and Thad Young having a team option. The prevailing theory is that this team could’ve won 50, and almost beat the Eastern Conference champs – why not roll the dice again?
Career year Darren Collison and career year Bojan Bogdanovic are perfectly fine starters on a perfectly fine regular season team.
However, both were exposed in the playoffs. Both experienced drops in shooting percentages across the board. Darren Collison looked afraid to score the basketball at critical moments, in situations that could’ve changed the outcome of the series.
Bojan had one huge offensive game, but was targeted play after play after play by the Cavs on defense, and looked bad guarding just about anyone, LeBron or not. If you think you can count on career years from one and/or the other again, they have proven that their best is good enough to be a cog on a good regular season team.
However, if these Pacers have higher aspirations, those should be the two starters they look to upgrade.
However, if these Pacers have higher aspirations, those should be the two starters they look to upgrade.
It’s important to note: all of that can be true, and keeping one or both can still be the right decision. Both are good players on valuable contracts. While either would be better suited to a bench role (and real minutes off the bench), them starting next year wouldn’t be the worst thing. Both are capable starters that could serve as a placeholder while the Pacers develop or target potential upgrades.
Keeping good players who are part of a good locker room on good contracts is definitely not a bad idea, and the Pacers would do well to bring both back next year. However, if they have higher aspirations, starting Bojan and DC should be a thing of the present, not a thing of the future.
If the dream is for Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner to play more together, more time in the laboratory is needed. There were some kinks that need to be worked out. But, the basic structure is there. Sabonis, easily superior as a five, would be the center and Turner, who moves far better on the perimeter, would be the power forward.
This is a good thing. Indiana has two interchangeable centers that can potentially play with each other because of their complementary strengths.
More from Pacers News
- 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
- Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
- 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
- 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
- Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?
One thing should be for certain is this (and remember this for the draft section of this story): the Pacers shouldn’t waste their time trying to find an upgrade a center. If you include rookie Ike Anigbogu — who spent the year either learning from the bench or in the G-League — the Pacers have three centers on the roster that are 22 years-old or younger. Sabonis and Turner have offered decent evidence that they both could be franchise cornerstones.
Remember Jermaine O’Neal averaged 3.9 points and 3.1 rebounds during his first four NBA seasons in Portland. The Blazers traded him, before his age 22 season, to Indiana. O’Neal was an all-star at 23. It never hurts to be able to develop your own talent.
The real question for the front court is what to do at power forward, especially if Thad Young opts out. As our Dylan Hughes chronicles, the situation could get tricky. Young wants security, which the Pacers could offer, but at what price?
The Pacers will likely be bidding against themselves if he does opt out, but that might be a bad way to look at it. Young and the Pacers have been good for each other.
A compromise of around $10M per year for three years should be a decent compromise. That is, if Indiana wants to commit to Young.
Kevin Pritchard has spoken of a desire to add more shooting to the power forward position. Of all the many attributes that Young is, a three-point marksman (33% career) is not one of them. So do the Pacers take this opportunity to scour the landscape for other options, while knowing Young’s options are few and far between?
Maybe that’s unnecessary and the added shooting is already on the roster. The easily ridiculed T.J. Leaf did hit 43% of his threes last year, and had double-figure scoring nights on four occasions. And he’s just 20 years old.
Another internal option is Bojan Bogdanovic who might be able to play some minutes as a floor-stretching undersized four. Speaking of Bogdanovic, the Pacers shouldn’t be in too big of a rush to replace him at small forward. Yes, there are more than a couple small forwards than he is, but he’s better than most of the fish in the sea. Bogdanovic spent most of season as Indiana’s only real option at the three, which clearly took it’s toll on him after the Bogey Game. Maybe the Pacers should find him some help.
The rest of the Pacers’ roster
Secondary Scorer — Indiana does need a counter-punch to pair with Oladipo. You just can’t go 0-7 when your best player doesn’t play, nor is it smart to bank your entire offense on one player. The Pacers need a player who consistently scores in the 17-20 point range or better and can dependably take the lead when called upon. If that player is on the roster (Turner and Sabonis being the leading candidates) he didn’t reveal himself last year. If Pritchard doesn’t acquire one this offseason he’s tempting fate.
Glenn Robinson III — After an injured start to the season, it’s most fair to call his 2017-18 a push. When he did play he was caked in rust, but he did shoot well from three in a very small sample size (he was 14-for-34, 41.2%). If he could stretch that out for a full season, that would be just what the doctor ordered to boost the Pacers bench. The question would be how much will he get on the open market? Probably not much, and if that is the case Indiana should strongly consider keeping him around on a prove-it contract. If Robinson leaves, deepening the small forward position becomes a necessity.
Indiana has almost unarguably the cleanest cap-sheet in the league. Oladipo’s combined $42M is the only significant salary on the books for 2019 and 2020. That means that as long as the Pacers play it smart they could be players not only in this year’s offseason but the next two as well. Just avoid the bad contracts.
Because this is a manifesto and all, we’re breaking this down into a few chapters. The next chapter is the outlook on the rest of the NBA, but feel free to skip around.
Next: Matthes' Manifesto: The rest of the NBA's outlook
- If you want to go navigate back to the beginning of Matthes’ Manifesto, click here.
- To check out how the rest of the NBA affects the Pacers, click here.
- To look at Indiana’s realistic targets in the draft, click here.
- To see which guards they should target in trades, click here.
- To see which forwards they should target in trades, click here.
- To see which free agents they should target, click here.
- For a modest proposal, click here.