As part of Jonathan Matthes’ offseason manifesto, we look at which players make the most sense for the Pacers in free agency for this offseason.
If the Pacers want to hunt for impact players, this section is not for them. Mowing through these quickly: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, and definitely, most definitely Paul George are not coming to Indiana.
A word on the last one: a player like Paul George (superiorly gifted two-way wing) would be perfect in Indiana, while a player that is Paul George (the guy who captained two underachieving teams, and didn’t want to be here anyway) is not.
Also not making this section are good players who would be poor fits in Indy (Clint Capela, Julius Randle, Derek Favors, Enes Kanter, Jusuf Nurkic), significant injury risks who haven’t rounded back into shape (Cousins again, Isaiah Thomas, Jabari Parker, Zach LaVine) or players who gained a pseudo-cult recognition while playing in obscurity only to wilt like a dandelion in the sun when inserted onto the big stage (Rodney Hood).
Instead of tossing too much money on these players Indiana should focus their remaining cap space on supplemental players that will add to the meat of the roster. Positions like the fifth guard, the second small forward (if Robinson goes elsewhere or Indy decides someone else is an upgrade), the backup four (Trevor Booker’s spot, if Indy elects to move on), more shooters anywhere, can all be upgraded through free agency. Options for all of these (both good and bad) are below.
Dylan Hughes on why the Pacers should target Aaron Gordon
Jacob Breece on why the Pacers shouldn’t target Aaron Gordon
Now let’s look at some of the other power forwards
Power Forward
A coup would be Jerami Grant (Thunder, 8.4, 54/29/68, 3.9 Rebs, $1.5M cap hold). Grant finished the year as the fourth best player on Oklahoma City while playing off the bench. He’s an energizer bunny constantly active both offensively and defensively.
His three-point accuracy wasn’t flattering last year (29%) but that might be an anomaly. He shot 37% the year before and his overall shooting percentages have generally trended up, a very positive sign.
And, it’s not like he’s the first player to see deflated scoring numbers playing alongside Westbrook.
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The genesis of signing Grant would be that he’s a 24 year-old who plays like a starter, who will be cheaper than the flashier models on the market, and whose team might not be able to keep him (even when George opts out they will be over the luxury tax).
An intrepid team could try to price the Thunder out of Grant who will only be a back-up as long as Carmelo Anthony is on the roster. But in Indiana, he could be -depending on how Thad’s situation progresses- much more influential.
A less-heralded yet steady option would be Anthony Tolliver (Pistons, 8.9, 46/44/80, 3.1 Rebs, $3.9M cap hold). For most of his decade-long NBA career Tolliver was treated as a traditional power forward, which was a mistake because he isn’t. During his short stay with Charlotte, he started ranging out to the perimeter and has been a 40% shooter ever since. He kicked it up several notches to close out the year for the Pistons, averaging a 17 and 4 while hitting 55% of his threes during their final ten games.
If a team needs a steely veteran with a sweet touch from the four, Tolliver abides.
The Wing
There is a decent amount of wing talent available this off-season, including Indiana’s own Glenn Robinson III who shouldn’t be overlooked.
There are rising players like Joe Harris (SG Nets, 27 yrs, 10.8, 49/42/83, 3.3 Rebs, $1.5M cap hold). Harris had a revelatory season with Brooklyn. Is he a starter on a really good team? Doubtful, but maybe. He moves well both off the ball and on defense. He’s a knock-down shooter who’s only real flaw is he has a tendency to drive baseline into two defenders, jump before anyone is open, then promptly turns it over. It’s humorous when it happens because it’s infrequent, but he does it enough that it can’t totally be ignored either. A bigger issue is Brooklyn really likes him, and he’s saying all the right things about wanting to stay there too, so it might be difficult to snatch him away.
There are enigmas like Mario Hezonja (G/F Magic, 23 yrs, 9.6, 44/34/82, 3.7 Rebs, $5.2M cap hold) who could either be really promising or really misguided additions. Hezonja moves alright but has never been a league-average three-point shooter. Does that mean he’ll never be that? No, but it also doesn’t mean he’ll ever master it either. Patrick McCaw (SG Warriors, 23 yrs, 4.0, 41/24/77, +0.7 A/T, $1.7M cap hold) is in the same boat, for different reasons. McCaw’s stock is high in part because he plays for the Warriors. His numbers don’t scream future star. But how could they since it’s hard to get enough playing time on that team?
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There are players on the downside of their careers like Danny Green (SG Spurs, 31 yrs, 8.6, 39/36/77, 3 Rebs, $10M Player option) who has consistently gotten worse over the last four years and then cratered in the playoffs scoring a total of 21 points on 26.7% shooting in five quick games against Golden State. It’s a similar case for Jamal Crawford (SG T-Wolves, 38 yrs, 10.3, 42/33/90, +1.1 A/T, $5.2M cap hold) who’s scoring average has fallen steadily from18.6 ppg in 2014 to 10.3 this year, his lowest since his third year in the league. His shots just aren’t falling like they used too.
And players that are on the downside of their career that still have tread on their tires like Trevor Ariza (SF Rockets, 33 yrs, 11.7, 41/37/85, 4.4 Rebs, $12.9M cap hold) who is as steady as they come. Ariza’s been a starter for the last five years, scoring between 11.7 and 12.8 ppg in each of the last four years. He’s proven himself eminently valuable to the Rockets, it would take a lot for him to leave.
Some players have been successful role players, but will always be role players like Pat Connaughton (G/F Blazers, 26 yrs, 5.4, 42/35/84, 2 Rebs, $1.8M cap hold). Or players that have inflated reputations, like Will Barton (G/F Nuggets, 28 yrs, 15.7, 45/37/81, 5 Rebs, $6.7M cap hold). Barton gets viewed as an up-and-coming young player. He’s one year younger than Bogdanovic and nowhere close to him, shooting-wise.
Barton does defend and rebound better, but not by enough to shift the scales in his favor. He averaged 24 ppg against Indiana last year, which might be why Pacers’ fans are so high on him. Add it all up and he’s an inconsistent player who might be a valuable backup but don’t expect too much more.
Then there is Wayne Ellington (SG Heat, 31 yrs, 11.2, 41/39/86, +0.3 A/T, $8.2M cap hold). Ellington has one marketable skill, he shoots, and he’s really good at it. Since he’s undersized and one-dimensional he’ll be a bench player for the rest of his career, but that’s not a knock against him. Miami’s unleashed his bench shooting and he’s made 376 threes in that two-year stretch.
The question for Ellington isn’t his ability to deliver, he -like Thad Young- wants stability. After playing for seven teams in six years, who can blame him. Whichever ever team can find the balance between role, price and amount of years will probably land him.
Guard
There are two players in this section and they are polar opposites. The first is Marcus Smart (G Celtics, 24 yrs, 10.2, 37/30/73, +2.4 A/T, $13.6M cap hold) the restricted free agent is a defensive ace, looking at times more strong safety than point guard. Pairing him next to Oladipo would create the most formidable defensive backcourt in the NBA. Two ballhawks with quick hands? How would you get through that.
The problem with Smart is the other side of the ball, he is a well below average shooter. For example Darren Collison shot 64% better from three. Your starting point guard can’t produce so little offensively.
But then again, he isn’t a point guard anymore. The Celtics have played him as the off-guard most of the time (77% in ’17-18) for the last three years.
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- 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
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So, he’d have to be a second unit player in Indy. Since Boston can match, Indy might have to pay through the nose to snatch a backup away from the Celts, but the Pacers might not be the only team that would have interest.
Any team that is looking for a compliment to a shoot-first-and-second guard, will have an eye for a player like Smart. Look out for Dallas, Phoenix, and maybe Utah.
The second is Tyreke Evans (G Grizzlies, 29 yrs, 19.4, 45/40/79, +2.9 A/T, $3.9M cap hold) he’s angling for a big pay day, and just might get it.
Evans is at his best with the ball in his hands on offense. His usage rate of 28.4 led the Grizzlies, which would be the problem with the Pacers, because Oladipo should have the ball in his hands the most. And Evans hasn’t shined in situations where he has to share the ball, at least not yet.
If the Pacers signed Evans to be a starting wing player (he’d be an undersized small forward) they’d be taking a big gamble that he can produce big numbers in a role he’s never produced big numbers in. If they sign him to be a backup…well, how much would you spent on a back-up who just came off a career year at age 28, with other teams interested in his service?
Next: Matthes' Manifesto: A modest proposal
- If you want to go navigate back to the beginning of Matthes’ Manifesto, click here.
- To check out how the rest of the NBA affects the Pacers, click here.
- To look at Indiana’s realistic targets in the draft, click here.
- To see which guards they should target in trades, click here.
- To see which forwards they should target in trades, click here.
- To see which free agents they should target, click here.
- For a modest proposal, click here.