Indiana Pacers Draft Profiles: Bigs
By Jon Washburn
This is the fourth part of our Indiana Pacers Draft Preview series. For an overview, check out this Draft Primer. For deeper-dive analysis on the potential players that Indiana may select, check out his previous break downs of potential Pacers playmakers and wings.
There is perhaps no more pressing issue for the Indiana Pacers than deciding whether Myles Turner is a four or a five going forward.
The safe road is also the easy road: Re-sign Ian Mahinmi this summer and rededicate yourself as a big and powerful team that will create matchup problems with a league that is increasingly shrinking. Last year’s numbers seem to indicate that the Pacers actually play better with these big lineups, and Myles Turner provides the floor spacing to make it work offensively.
However, Larry Bird has made no bones about it: He wants to go play smaller and faster. It’s unclear whether Myles Turner and the Pacers would be better with him manning the center position, but it’s certainly a more “entertaining” style to progress with. Turner is a good enough rim defender to fill the roll and the offensive possibilities would be endless, provided the Pacers found the right stretch four to make it happen.
So the smart money this summer is that the Pacers will let Mahinmi walk and look for a guy who can play the 4 as Turner slides into the center spot full time.
None of the players in this year’s draft that will be available at #20 will likely be good enough to step into this role from year one. Heck, Myles Turner was awesome last year, and even he wasn’t ready for extended minutes in prime time until April. But here are the options for Larry Bird to choose from Thursday night.
Stretchy-Fours
Taurean Prince
- Height: 6′ 7.75″
- Weight: 220 lbs
- Wingspan: 6′ 11.5″
- Max Vertical: 36″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 19th, O’Connor – 25th, Draft Express – 19th, Chad Ford – 34th, Sports Illustrated – 21st, NBADraft.net – 32nd, Doug Gottlieb – 22nd
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Harrison Barnes
The Baylor wing man has garnered a lot of comparisons to DeMarre Carroll, and the comparison is an easy one, especially when Prince’s hair is factored into the equation, but I see a little more Harrison Barnes in his game.
Prince already looks like an NBA player. He’s long, strong, and athletic, with measureables that work perfectly for an NBA 3/4. He’s got an explosive first step, and he gets off the floor well. Offensively, he’s probably one of the most polished wings in the entire draft.
Prince shot 38% from long range over the last two years, taking more than four attempts per game. At Baylor, he excelled shooting off of ball-screens and flairs, but he also featured an improved pull-up game, and he has deep range above the break. He is already an above-average slasher, and he converted more than 50% of his floaters, which put him at the very top of college basketball.
Perhaps most intriguingly, Prince scored almost 10% of his points by volume via post ups, and he has already mastered a nice little fadeaway turning over both shoulders. He also vastly improved as a passer over his last two seasons, and showed good awareness of higher level offensive concepts regarding the second level of defense. More than anything, Prince is a decisive basketball player. He tends to see the floor and make the correct decision quickly.
Oh, and he might be the funniest guy in the draft, too.
Prince is a good athlete, but he’s not a great athlete, and some scouts have wondered whether he will be able to create for himself at the next level. This is where the Harrison Barnes/DeMarre Carroll comps are helpful. Both guys have excelled in roles where they weren’t asked to be the first, second, or even third option on offense. One could see Prince fitting in nicely with Jeff Teague, Paul George, and Myles Turner on that end of the floor, but struggling if he was asked to carry a bench unit.
My biggest concern comes on the defensive end. Prince looks like he could be a good defender in the NBA, but there’s really no way to know. Baylor players are like Syracuse players on that end of the floor; because both teams spend so much time playing a funky (and worthless for next-level scouting) zone, their players often come to the league ill-prepared to handle higher defensive concepts. Prince projects to be just fine on that end, but he would likely give Nate McMillan more than his fair share of headaches as a rookie.
Honestly, Prince is the player I most hope the Pacers can select on draft night. He provides positional versatility, shooting, and chemistry to a young and promising core. A front line of Myles Turner, Taurean Prince, and Paul George would be able to battle all styles of teams, were Prince to maximize his potential.
Juan Hernangomez
- Height: 6′ 9″
- Weight: 220 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 0″ (estimated)
- Max Vertical: NA
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 17th, O’Connor – 19th, Draft Express – 15th, Chad Ford – 18th, Sports Illustrated – 27th, NBADraft.net – 28th, Doug Gottlieb – 15th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Poor Man’s Rashard Lewis
The other small-ball four is probably less known to Pacers fans, but should not be any less regarded. Juan Hernangomez has a lot to love for anyone looking for a stretchy four.
Juan Hernangomez is actually held in higher regard by nearly every scout on this list (including me, who, by the way, perhaps only prefers Prince because his name is easier to type). The Spaniard has good physical tools, a beautiful jump shot, and an impressive offensive arsenal.
Hernangomez is an above-average shooter with deep range, and he’s already good at attacking close outs decisively. He’s a little thinner than Prince, but he’s also one year younger. Because of his floppy hair and…um…complexion, he’s got a little bit of a “Lol! White guy!” athletic ability, but he’s a very comparable athlete to Taurean Prince. (In fact, I think that Prince is the more intelligent and hard-nosed prospect while Hernangomez often seems to coast by on his athleticism and physical tools…don’t tell this to any tired and clichéd play-by-play announcers.)
Defensively, Hernangomez is already expert at challenging vertically, keeping his long arms almost perfectly perpendicular to the floor, not unlike Roy Hibbert. He’s got good instincts and fills passing lanes well, and has a good understanding of help-defense principles.
I’m just not sure Hernangomez will ever be able to defend at a high level. Currently, he’s far too frail to defend NBA fours, and while he has a good frame that should bulk up, he would be a massive liability early on his career. He would also be a decent liability on the glass were he to play the power forward slot.
The decision to go small is often predicated on a desire to have more versatility on switches, and while it’s unlikely the Pacers will ever ask Paul George to step off of the other team’s best player, Hernangomez is probably not quick enough to defend real NBA perimeter players.
Prince has a higher ceiling, and could potentially blossom into a starter on the Pacers. Hernangomez seems like a career bench player.
True Bigs
Skal Labissiere
- Height: 6′ 11.75″
- Weight: 216 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 2.5″
- Max Vertical: 35″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 21st, O’Connor – 23rd, Draft Express – 10th, Chad Ford – 14th, Sports Illustrated – 15th, NBADraft.net – 16th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: A raw Myles Turner
Damian Jones
- Height: 6′ 11.5″
- Weight: 244 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 3.75″
- Max Vertical: 37″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 27th, O’Connor – 7th, Draft Express – 21st, Chad Ford – 27th, Sports Illustrated – 33rd, NBADraft.net – 13th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Everything you were hoping to get from Daniel Orton
Skal Labissiere and Damian Jones both spent time impressing and underwhelming in the SEC. Both guys possess all of the physical tools that NBA scouts covet but lack the polish necessary to stick in the NBA.
Labissiere was the second-ranked high school recruit in the entire nation and entered Kentucky with a lot of attention as people wondered whether he would be the next Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Davis. He wasn’t. But that doesn’t mean he won’t blossom into a good NBA player. Labissiere’s biggest problem is his inexperience.
He has pretty famously only played basketball for a short time, and he still looks lost in an actual game setting, no matter how great his physical tools look in warm ups and scrimmages. Further, while his physical tools are impressive, they aren’t as impressive as some scouts initially thought.
It’s hard to imagine Labissiere ever doing this consistently against real NBA players.
Jones is a mammoth of a man, and flashes some “Andre Drummond-lite” size and athleticism. He’s combines a 37-inch vertical with his frame that’s just a half-inch shy of 7-feet tall. He’s got NBA length and strength, and even features a decent mid-range jump shot.
But both guys lack one of the most important attributes for an NBA big man: motor. It’s too easy, and potentially unfair, to throw around character-driven words like “lazy” and “lackadaisical.” But neither guy was able to consistently dominate his smaller opponents at the college level.
Both guys project to be backup big men in the NBA, and probably would be of no value to the Pacers as they try to make their future stylistic decision.
Ante Zizic
- Height: 6′ 11.5″
- Weight: 249 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 2.5″
- Max Vertical: 27″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 29th, O’Connor – 20th, Draft Express – 23rd, Chad Ford – 21st, Sports Illustrated – 19th, NBADraft.net – 33rd
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: A miniature Boban
Brice Johnson
- Height: 6′ 10.5″
- Weight: 209 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 0.25″
- Max Vertical: 37″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 29th, O’Connor – 32nd, Draft Express – 34th, Chad Ford – 36th, Sports Illustrated – 38th, NBADraft.net – 14th, Doug Gottlieb – 16th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: A More Athletic Tyler Hansbrough
The other two bigs for Larry Bird to consider have no problem with motor.
Brice Johnson is a prospect that many Pacers fans have been pining for all spring. Ante Zizic is someone they’ve likely never heard about. Both play with an admirable intensity and drive for every second they are on the floor. Neither projects to be a future NBA starter.
Zizic towers over nearly every other prospect with a standing reach of 9′ 3.” He’s got broad shoulders and soft hands, and seeks out contact on both ends of the floor. Unfortunately, he’s almost painfully slow.
The team that drafts Zizic will have to build their entire defense with him in mind and commit to dropping back on all pick-and-rolls. Many recent NBA defenses have excelled with this gameplan, but it definitely needs to factor into the decision-making process. Zizic lacks the versatility to play with other bigs, and would almost certainly need to be paired with an athletic floor spacer in order to be a part of an above-average NBA offense.
Johnson dominated the boards in college basketball last season and helped drag UNC to the NCAA title game. Unfortunately, he’s too short and too skinny to ever play center, and he’s probably not skilled enough to be a stretch-four.
Johnson will certainly be useful to an NBA team as an energy guy off the bench. One could easily envision him having a 10-year, Lavoy Allen-esque career in which he cleans up both boards for 15-20 minutes per game. It’s possible that he even maxes out as Kenneth Faried in a starting lineup. But Faried brings his own set of problems, and if Brice Johnson can’t continue to improve his jump shot, he looks like an NBA backup.
The Enigma
Thon Maker
- Height: 7′ 0.75″
- Weight: 216 lbs
- Wingspan: 7′ 3.5″
- Max Vertical: 36.5″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 24th, O’Connor – 36th, Draft Express – 41st, Chad Ford – 19th, Sports Illustrated – 25th, NBADraft.net – 25th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Anthony Randolph/Perry Jones, III/Jonathan Bender/Giannis Antetokounmpo/Nobody has any idea
Thon Maker is the guy that every fan covets and pines for, but makes NBA GMs wake up in a cold sweat. Maker will almost certainly cost somebody a job in the next few years. If he’s a superstar (and he really does have that potential), his name will be mentioned first in some poor GM’s exit interview. But it’s probably a fireable offense if he’s a bust and he’s taken too highly.
Maker is a 7’1″ Dante Exum: There is so much to love — in the four minutes of game film that we have. But even those four minutes are littered with red flags. Who are these guys he’s playing against? Is this a local YMCA? Why won’t his agent let him play against other prospects? What are they trying to hide? Is he really 33 years old? Is he a taller Kevin Durant? What did I just say?
Oh man, let me watch this highlight video again…
Screw it. I’m drafting this guy and never looking back. Sign Mahinmi as insurance. If Maker fails, then you simply move forward with Mahimni/Turner/George and are committed to staying big. There are worse things in life.
But I can’t risk letting the revolution pass me by. Let that video wash over you like a Thon of Bricks. It’s a Maker miss league; choose wisely, Larry Bird.
I’ll be here all night.