Pacers vs Mavericks: Danger Zone

Indiana Pacers (5-8) at Dallas Mavericks (10-3)

Good news everyone!

Bad news everyone!

The Pacers get back Stuckey and Miles, but the rest Indiana is still back to fielding about 2/3 of a basketball team again. And fielding anything less a full squad doesn’t bode well for any team trying to take down the Dallas Mavericks. The Fighting Mark Cubans are leading the league in points per a game with 109.9 and play average defense, but that is more than enough to handle the Pacers. Indiana’s 9th ranked defense relies on Roy Hibbert to protect the rim and he’s the best at it in the league. Ian Mahinmi plays strong defense and will likely see most of Roy’s minutes, but there are reasons why he doesn’t start. One of which is his offense as Mahinmi averages 4.6 points a game. Normally that wouldn’t be as big of a concern if Indiana was fielding a healthy line up, but with the league’s 28th ranked offense missing Hibbert’s 13.1 points a game, this doesn’t look good for the Pacers.

Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons versus Mahinmi, Luis Scola and Chris Copeland doesn’t sound like a fair match up at all in the front court. Even if Mahinmi can handle Chandler, that still leaves Scola and Copeland to play defense on an all-time great and Parsons. When those three have been on the court together (for a total of 45 minutes) they’ve played below average offense and slightly above average defense for a net rating of -9.8. That’s not so bad, but that isn’t great either. It will be interesting to see how those three handle a that group of Mavericks averaging 43 points a game. It will be Donald Sloan and Solomon Hill in the front court trying to handle Jameer Nelseon and Monta Ellis, but with all the mismatches behind them, it is only going to open up the whole court for an offensive barrage by Dallas. Solomon Hill has another tough assignment tonight with Ellis who has averaged 19.5 points a game this season. Keeping him under 20 is the goal for Hill. I see a lot of 3-pointers and terrible post defense in Indiana’s future. I know that Indiana is playing with house money right now due to all the injuries, but it is hard not to be pessimistic about their chances against a quality opponent like the Mavericks.

Who to watch on the Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki is facing Luis Scola (or Chris Copeland). I see a lot of points happening.

Who to watch on the Pacers: Team trainer Josh Corbiel and assistant trainer Carl Eaton. We’ve seen a ludicrous amount of injuries with the Pacers this season and these guys have to be working a lot of overtime to keep up. Also if anyone else gets hurt, coach Frank Vogel may try putting them in the game, rules be damned.

The Big Question

Can Scola and Copeland do anything to stop the Mavericks? They play decent defense when they have Roy Hibbert behind them to defend the rim but with the talent Dallas and no Hibbert, this looks like a recipe for disaster. I think Mahinmi can play defense well enough at center, but if he’s having to cheat out to help his teammates, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for the Mavericks.

Betting Line

The Mavericks are a -14.5 home favorite with 197 over/under. Take the over and the Mavericks.

One Random Thing

I thought I made a bad video last year… but this is much, much worse.