Game #12 Preview – Our Resistable Force Meets Their Movable Object

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors
Air Canada Centre
Toronto, Ontario
7:00 PM EST

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Glossary: Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | eFG% | Pace

It’s shaping up to be a very odd season for your boys in Blue & Gold.  Thus far, they’ve sandwiched two three-game losing streaks around one five-game winning streak. Tonight, they open a back-to-back in Toronto trying to keep the second losing streak from reaching four.  Whip-lashed Pacer fans are understandably unsure of what to expect.

If you’re hoping I’m going to make you feel better, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Looking at all 11 games as a whole, the most consistent themes were not positive ones.

• Quality of Opponents – Of the five wins the Pacers have this season, only one (Boston) was against a winning team. The other four teams have a combined 10-40 record.  The first three-game losing streak came against teams with a combined 28-12 record, so that’s not alarming.  The current one includes an embarrassing loss to the then 1-9 Knicks at Conseco, and Sunday’s blowout loss to Charlotte, ending the BobKitties seven game losing streak.

• Lost Quarters – Last season, the Pacers scored 20 points or fewer in only 60 of the 328 regulation quarters they played, or about 18%. This season, they’ve scored 20 or less in 13 of their 44 quarters, or about 30%. Here’s are some of the most damaging quarters:

Game 1 @ Atlanta – Entered the fourth trailing by 1, get outscored 25-15 and lost by 11.

Game  2 vs. Miami – A 16-point first quarter puts the Pacers down 12 entering the second. A strong second quarter leaves the Pacers down two at the half, but a matching 16-point third gives Miami a 16-point lead, and they cruise to a 13-point win.

Game 3 vs. Denver – Outscored 30-13 in the first quarter of what turns out to be an 18-point loss.

Game 8 @ New Jersey – The Pacers keep New Jersey in the game with a dreadful 13-point third quarter. Only the Nets inherent incompetence keeps them from capitalizing, as the winless host only scores 14 for the quarter.

Game 9 vs. New York – The Pacers post twin 17-point quarters in the third and fourth, allowing a 15-point halftime lead to morph into a 7-point loss to a 1-9 team on the Pacers’ home floor.

Game 10 vs. Cleveland – The Pacers are outscored 28-13 in the fourth, turning a 5-point lead into a 10-point loss.

• Clang – The Pacers currently rank 24th in the league at eFG% at .476.  Their 3-point shooting has been an abysmal .303 (26th), while hoisting almost 20 per night. They have shot below 33% from beyond the arc 9 times this year, including five times below 25%. Last season, they only had six games all year where they failed to eclipse the 1-in-4 standard.

• Offensive Impotence – The Pacers currently rank 25th in Offensive Efficiency, scoring a scant 101.9 points per 100 possessions.  This would represent the lowest offensive output for the Pacers since 1984 (that team won 26 games).  It’s worse even than Rick Carlisle’s final year, when the team finished dead last in Offense.  They’ve been held under 1 point per possession in four of their 11 games, compared to only 12 of their 82 games last season.

• Worrisome Four Factors numbers – Even during their winning streak, they were not a statistically strong team. Dean Oliver’s Four Factors of Winning focus on Shooting, Turnovers, Rebounding, and Free Throws. There is a set for Offense and a set for Defense. If you combine the Pacers rankings in all of the factors, you’ll see that the Pacers are a below average offensive team and an average defensive team.  This was true even during the winning streak.  Historically, teams performing at the Pacers’ level will be anchored to the 36-win level, plus or minus five games. Given that their offense is trending downward, the Pacers are very much in danger of underperforming the historical win average.

I’m sure you’ll notice that the focus above is primarily offense. That’s because it’s the offense (or lack thereof) that is going to kill this team’s playoff chances this year. I realize that all the cool kids focus on defense, and yes, the defense has had it’s hiccups, but overall it’s fine. However, there are two ends to the court, and they’re pretty much equally important. More to the point, an incompetent offense puts the team’s defense at a huge disadvantage.

Defensively, the Pacers need to maintain their FG defense, which sits third best in the league at .471. They need to improve on their DefRB%, which is a middling .737, good for 15th out of 30 in the league. However, it will be very hard to do these things  if the opponent continues to get offensive opportunities off of Pacer missed shots and turnovers.

More importantly, if the Pacers remain in the bottom third 0f both offensive eFG% and Offensive Efficiency, their chances of contending for a playoff spot will be greatly damaged.  Since 1980, slight fewer than 1 in 4 teams in the bottom third for eFG% managed to meet or beat .500. The teams in this grouping averaged only 31 wins, and 146 of 254 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games. Fewer than 1 in 5 teams finishing in the bottom third for Offensive Efficiency were at or above .500. This group averaged only 30 wins, and 123 of 255 won the equivalent of 30 or fewer games.

At some point in time, the Pacers are going to have to stop bringing knives to these gunfights. If they do it again tonight, it’s going to get real ugly real quick.

The Raptors, on the other hand, have no problems whatsoever offensively. They bring a league best 114.7 Offensive Efficiency into tonight’s game, along with an eFG% of .521. Unfortunately for them, they also bring a league worst 116.4 Defensive Efficiency. This largely explains their 6-8 record.

The question is whether the Pacers offense is even capable of taking advantage of Toronto’s porous defense. If you find yourself watching the Pacers at the offensive end and screaming “Somebody move!”, it’s not going to be a promising outcome for the good guys. Put simply, the defense will do well to keep the Raptors at or below their average of 106 points tonight. If the offense doesn’t make a showing, it will be over quickly.

Chris Bosh is putting up MVP numbers, averaging 26 & 12, which drives a PER of just over 30. The #1 pick from the 2006 draft, Andrea Bargnani, has emerged as a solid scorer, posting just under 18 per night.  It’s the presence of these two agile bigs that has prompted Jim O’Brien to replace Roy Hibbert in the line up with Jeff Foster. Bargnani shoots almost 42% for treys, and takes just about a third of his 14 shots per night from there.

Big name free agent acquisition Hedo Turkoglu has been lackluster thus far this season, posting a slightly below average PER of 14.5. Former Pacer Jarrett Jack has struggled mightily, shooting only 37%, and Rasho Nesterovic has only been used sparingly.

Items of Note: Foster and Murphy are expected to join Ford, Rush, and Granger in tonight’s starting lineup…If you’re looking for a lot of Roy, consider this quote from O’Brien: “We can’t play Roy much unless they play Amir Johnson or (Rasho) Nesterovic,” O’Brien said. “We’ll start Jeff at center because we’re quicker and able to guard their pick-and-rolls.”…Watch Danny away from the ball. If he’s standing around (which he’s prone to do), then the entire offense stagnates around him…Pay close attention to times when Murphy and Hansbrough are on the floor together.  O’Brien likes the pairing, so if the Pacers struggle at those times, it could be cause for concern for the balance of the year.