The Indiana Pacers should return to the playoffs this season.
Earlier this week, we dove into a few reasons why the Indiana Pacers could continue to struggle next season after missing the playoffs in 2020-21. With the new season on the horizon, optimism is back in the air for the Pacers with Rick Carlisle taking over as head coach.
There is still plenty of talent on the roster despite the loss of Doug McDermott in free agency. T.J. Warren will hopefully return to the lineup after playing in just four games last season, adding a scoring boost to the starting five.
Chris Duarte, the team’s first selection in the 2021 NBA Draft, is ready to be a contributor right away, something that we don’t see often from Pacers rookies. His arrival to the bench will help alleviate some of the scoring that was lost when McDermott left for San Antonio.
Aaron Holiday was also traded on draft night for a draft pick which wound up being Kentucky big man Isaiah Jackson. Jackson, who may get some run as the backup four, probably will not see a ton of time in his rookie season unless the Pacers move one of the other centers.
With a few changes on the way but a lot of returning faces, will the Indiana Pacers get back into playoff contention next season?
T.J. Warren will carry the Indiana Pacers
Entering the final year of his contract, T.J. Warren will do everything he can to earn a massive payday next summer. I was a firm believer that Warren was set to be the team’s MVP last season before his injury shut him down for the season but that arguably strengthened his case.
With Warren gone, the Pacers struggled to stay afloat all season with defensive struggles arising more and more as time went on. Domantas Sabonis is not capable of being a defensive stopper like Nate Bjorkgren expected him to be last season and that led to a ton of problems all season.
Warren was much better defensively in his first season in Indiana than many expected and getting him back on the perimeter will be huge for the Pacers. While he may not be an elite perimeter defender, he does more than enough to ease the pressure off of Myles Turner in the paint.
The real reward of getting Warren back is his ability to put the ball down and score from anywhere on the floor. I am curious to see how he pairs with Caris LeVert but the Pacers now have three very good scoring options offense with them and Brogdon.
Replacing Doug McDermott and Justin Holiday in the starting lineup with T.J. Warren should produce much better output than what we saw last season.
The Play-in Tournament makes it a bit easier
With the Play-in Tournament returning next season, the Pacers will have a bit of an easier path to a playoff opportunity. Of course, they would have to win their games if they finish 7th-10th in the regular season but with 10 teams getting a crack at the postseason, that allows for some wiggle room.
Indiana missed out after losing the second game of the play-in but were on the verge of a playoff berth despite as many injuries as they endured. Having five good starters with depth behind each of them is good news for Indiana, as long as the injuries don’t pile up as quickly as they did a year ago.
It’s quite difficult to find 10 rosters better than what the Pacers can offer with Brogdon, LeVert, Warren, Sabonis, Turner, McConnell, Duarte, Brissett, and Sumner. Sure, there are weaknesses and a lot of room for improvement, but the Pacers have a very solid roster that should, at the very least, make the playoffs.
I would even argue that the Pacers, on paper, have a top-7 lineup in the Eastern Conference and could completely avoid the play-in games if things go well. Giving the Pacers some breathing room and asking them to simply be a top-10 team that can win a game or two should be plenty.
Rick Carlisle is back with the Indiana Pacers
In 19 seasons as a head coach, Carlisle has only missed the playoffs five times, including a three-year drought from 2016-2019 with the Dallas Mavericks. Aside from that, Carlisle has been a very good regular season head coach with some playoff success as well.
In four seasons with Indiana from 2003-2007, Carlisle made the playoffs three times and advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in his first season. It is reasonable to expect that he can turn things around for Indiana after the turmoil that ensued last season.
Carlisle’s reputation with Indiana took a bit of a hit in 2004 with the Malice at the Palace, which left a once-promising Pacers organization in the mud. Now, he returns with a chance to change his legacy and get the Pacers back on track.
He has been spotted working out with Myles Turner this summer, perhaps signaling that the Pacers will keep a two-big lineup and see if Carlisle is the coach that can make it work. Turner has continued to put in the work despite being a constant in the rumor mill for another full offseason.
It’s no secret that the Pacers have the roster to make some noise. Losing McDermott will have its drawbacks but they were able to replace him with a well-rounded rookie while also retaining T.J. McConnell to be the backup point guard.
Head coach Rick Carlisle has a lot on his shoulders but the front office gave him a very luxurious contract, another signal that the Pacers believe they are ready to compete. They want to get the right head coach that can help the team win right now.