TJ Warren‘s season-long injury last season was the first domino to fall for the Indiana Pacers in their disappointing campaign. Coming off a breakout season in 2019-20, he was sorely missed by the Blue and Gold, which ultimately failed to fill his scoring and defensive void from the forward position.
The 27-year-old’s ascent as one of the leaders of an up-and-coming Indiana team in the 2019-20 NBA season gave the franchise another steady foundation to build on. However, after turning a lot of heads with his sensational play in the Orlando Bubble, the 6’8 forward failed to live up to his billing in the following campaign after a foot injury limited him to just four games last season.
TJ Warren is projected to be back and healthy for the Indiana Pacers next season
As the Pacers stumbled, it’s easy to flick the team away from the East’s competitive table. However, Warren’s return, alongside a better coaching staff, some new additions and the return of an actual homecourt advantage, should all swing the tide better for Indiana next season. Who knows, maybe the team could turn out to be one of the biggest surprises in the following year.
Sitting atop the bucket list for the Pacers’ wishful improvement next season, however, is the scoring forward’s comeback. TJ Warren is one of the league’s better frontcourt players, but there is always room for improvement. Thus, here are four goals for him in the 2020-21 NBA season.
TJ Warren should be the first or second leading scorer for the Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers in the last two seasons have a lone All-Star in Domantas Sabonis, but make no mistake: this team is as egalitarian as it gets. Still, despite a strong cast of capable scorers in Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and the Lithuanian big, the Blue and Gold will be best served reinstalling TJ Warren as one of their primary options on offense.
Trotting out Sabonis as the number one option to score in the half court, while efficient on an individual basis, stalls the offense and wastes the team’s versatile scoring profile. Brogdon and LeVert are both high-octane scorers, but both players’ efficiency numbers don’t tell a sterling tale with them as your go-to weapons.
With a career field goal percentage of 50.7 percent, TJ Warren oozes efficiency as a scorer. He doesn’t hoist a voluminous number of shots, but his accuracy on the floor gives you the impression that he’s a rim-running big. In reality, he does most of his damage in the mid-range zone, attacking close-outs and using his deadly jumper to lull the defense in most bailout opportunities.
Setting the stage for him as one of the primary options on offense will not only ensure that the scoring attack has a clear pecking order, but it will also improve his decision-making and passing—all while keeping the team’s other key weapons from being overused and gassed out—a common motif from last season’s erratic design.
The Indiana Pacers will benefit from TJ Warren’s continuous improvement on defense
One thing that many Indiana Pacers fans can take away from the front office is their high regard for TJ Warren. Kevin Pritchard specifically pinpointed to his season-long absence last season as one of the biggest factors which exacerbated the team’s drastic decline as a defensive unit (subscription required).
While no one should peg Warren as a premiere stopper who can routinely shut down the league’s most dangerous scorers, he has the makings of a player who can be a solid one-on-one defender. With a 6’8, 220-lb frame to boot, the forward possesses the apt physical tools to be highly effective on defense.
Considering the Pacers’ moves in free agency, a return to the team’s longtime defensive identity is certainly achievable, especially if the Blue and Gold has a cleaner bill of health next season. Still, Warren must assert himself as a defensive piece. Luckily, he’s been much-improved on that department in his last full season.
In the 2019-20 season, Warren ranked 19th among all forwards in defensive win shares, ahead of guys like Paul George and Jimmy Butler. Finetuning his defense and improving on it will be pivotal for Indiana’s success, especially with the East boasting tremendous scorers like Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum, among many others.
TJ Warren should ride the three-point wave for the Indiana Pacers
Despite his strong offensive profile, the three-point shot is not necessarily TJ Warren’s calling card. In his last two seasons, the forward cashed in more than 40 percent of his triples on moderate volume, but he’s far from a designated gunner—at least, not yet.
In last year’s incredibly small sample size, Warren failed to convert on a single three-pointer, having zero makes on seven total attempts scattered across four games. Even with Nate Bjorkgren’s amiability on hoisting more three-point shots as a team, the forward never seemed comfortable in a supplementary catch and shoot role.
However, being hesitant on the perimeter will make the offense less fluid. As said earlier, Warren would be better off running as a primary option on offense with his skillset, but he won’t always have the ball in his hands. Thus, he should be more willing to fire away from downtown and make himself more dangerous without the ball.
The Indiana Pacers will get a massive boost if TJ Warren goes to the charity stripe more
One thing holding TJ Warren back from tallying a better scoring average, aside from his dilly-dallying on three-pointers, is his low number of free throw attempts. Throughout his career, he’s been only averaging 2.5 attempts per game, which equates to just slightly more than a single trip per outing.
Part and parcel of what makes his free throw attempts a marginal part of his game is his non-reliance on contacts to bail him out in tight situations. When running into a traffic, he prefers to out-finesse his defender with his footwork. This is not a clear negative and actually speak volumes to his prowess as a scorer, but going to the charity stripe more will certainly help the team.
Last season, the Indiana Pacers only attempted 20.7 free throw attempts per game, which ranked a measly 26th in the association. In Warren’s last full season in 2019-20, the team ranked dead-last.
With the Blue and Gold’s bevy of capable attackers, there’s no excuse for the team to rank so low in the free throw department. Warren as the catalyst for a more aggressive scoring attack will put more pressure on the defense and open up a lot of opportunities without players resorting to tough fallbacks in the process.