The Indiana Pacers are in serious danger of missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2008 and 2009.
Heading into last season, there was disbelief among Indiana Pacers fans that they could possibly miss the playoffs. With the roster they had coming into the season and the strong run the year before, many were hopeful that the Pacers could be strong contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Unfortunately, Indiana ran into some struggles early and was never able to get back on track, and missed the playoffs after losing in the play-in tournament. The team had the players in place to be dangerous last season but too many things went off the rails as the season dragged on.
Now, the Pacers are staring down another long season after an uneventful offseason up to this point. The 2021 NBA Draft produced a 24-year-old rookie guard in Chris Duarte who will add scoring to the bench to replace what Doug McDermott has left behind. The draft also brought another young big man to Indiana as Isaiah Jackson was acquired in exchange for Aaron Holiday and draft picks.
T.J. Warren also returns to the team after missing last season with a foot injury that required season-ending surgery. With new faces in the lineup, will the Pacers actually return to the playoffs? Here are three reasons we should be cautious of such expectations.
Injuries will always be a problem for the Indiana Pacers
Part of the reason the Pacers have built a roster on cheap deals is that they have targeted talented players with injury histories. Warren has battled injuries throughout his career and Indiana got lucky with his 67 games in 2019, the most of his career.
His absence last year was a crushing blow to the Pacers as they lost their leading scorer and turned to Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis to carry the load, two more players with significant injury concerns. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, Brogdon has not played in more than 64 games in a single season.
Sabonis missed the end of the bubble season in 2020 with a foot injury and missed time again at the end of the 2021 season. His wear and tear throughout the year are quite concerning for a big man, especially considering his recent string of lower-body injuries.
The rest of the starting five, Caris LeVert and Myles Turner, also have plenty of injury concerns of their own. With the core of the roster being a safe bet to miss some time each season, the Pacers should never be expected to dominate in the regular season.
Even if they survive enough throughout the regular season, the late-season ailments have been detrimental in recent years. It is tough to imagine a scenario in which those injuries just disappear this season.
The Eastern Conference is getting better
Looking around the Eastern Conference, the squads that were close to Indiana last season have all made some strides in getting better. The Wizards, who knocked Indiana out of the play-in tournament, turned Russell Westbrook into Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, and Aaron Holiday.
While Westbrook was a Pacers killer and is a star in his own right, the Wizards are still working to make Bradley Beal happy. Adding more talent at the expense of Westbrook was probably their best option this summer.
The Hornets were close to a playoff berth last season thanks to LaMelo Ball and the rest of the young core. They let Cody Zeller leave in free agency and replaced him in the draft with Kai Jones, the perfect running mate for Ball. Their youth and athleticism will be exciting to watch moving forward.
Chicago made moves as well, adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan in free agency sign-and-trades. Their starting lineup and early bench group is very exciting on paper but the fit will be worth monitoring. If they can click, they have the talent to challenge for a playoff spot next season.
The Raptors, Magic, Cavaliers, and Pistons were all near the top of the draft and were able to add plenty of upside as well. The Magic, who added Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner in the top 10, have a very fun team for the future. Could they be another threat to the playoffs? It’s unlikely this season but their time is coming.
Will the Indiana Pacers ever make the two-big lineup work?
Indiana has reached the postseason with a two-big lineup of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis but they have not advanced with them. With Sabonis missing the bubble in 2020 and Myles missing the play-in games in 2021, Indiana hasn’t really even had a chance to run both of them when it matters.
With their third head coach in as many seasons, we will see if the Pacers still try to make things work with both bigs in the lineup. There has been some speculation of a split that moves one to the bench – likely Turner – but that would also negate the need for both Goga Bitadze and Isaiah Jackson.
Turner and Sabonis are both making roughly $20 million per season for the remainder of their contracts, making them far too valuable to come off the bench. If they continue to share the floor, however, the Pacers will be extremely limited on both ends of the floor.
Rick Carlisle is going to have to sort things out in a hurry but Indiana needs to find a way to split the two bigs up. Whether through a trade or dividing their minutes, something has to change. The Pacers will struggle to beat good teams again in 2021-22 if they do not play a more modern lineup.