We are halfway through a very successful Indiana Pacers season so far. Let’s brainstorm some key things we learned in the first 41 games.
If you could script it, celebrating the conclusion of the season’s first half by getting incinerated by the Boston Celtics is not how the Indiana Pacers would have plotted it out. Alas, that is how it ended. Fortunately, Indiana had the New York Knicks to chase away that bad aftertaste Boston left. The season’s second half began much better than the first ended. Which was a shame because the first half offered so many highs.
The Pacers backed up the promise they inspired a season ago, finished the first half seven games better than their 2017-18 selves did. Those Pacers, with their magical run that reignited a dormant fanbase, hit the midway point 21-20, in fourth place in the Central Division and 11 games behind first place Boston in the Eastern Conference.
These Pacers hit game 41 at 27-14, three games behind first place Toronto and established in the third spot in a five team race to the top of the Eastern Conference.
Where the Pacers are today would have been a dream not even 12 months ago. But it’s not a dream, it’s the Pacers reality. Indiana by nearly all objective measures is one of the elite teams in both the Eastern Conference and the entire league. They are one of six teams with a winning record at home and away from home. There are eight teams in the league with a point differential of +3.0 (the mark of a good team) or better, the Pacers are a +5. The league average is an even 0. The team has gone a calendar year without losing three games in a row.
When we wrote our quarter-way recap the main question was: can the Pacers build on a volatile first quarter. They were up and down, struggling to string wins together. Indiana was just five games over .500. They showed flashes that they were a good team, but those flashes didn’t last long enough to offer confirmation. Since then the Indiana Pacers have gone 15-6, they are now 13 games above .500. They’ve had a 7-game win streak and a 6-game win streak.
The road will not get easier. March will be a particularly challenging gauntlet (Indy plays Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Portland, the Los Angeles Clippers, Boston, and Golden State once plus Denver and Oklahoma City twice). That’s a tall task for any team. At the same time, 23 of the remaining 38 games are at home, a distinct advantage for Indiana.
That’s all in the future though, let’s pause for the past, specifically for three takeaways from the season’s second quarter.
Myles Turner is a rising star
He might not have known it at the time, but the 26 and 12 performance that Myles Turner delivered on a December 10 win over Washington was the beginning of the best three week stretch of his career. Over the next eleven games, Turner would average 16.7 points (with shooting splits of 55 FG%, 53.3 3P%, 66.7 FT%), 9 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. It is a one-of-a-kind versatile stat line, no player has a similar combination of numbers over the course of this season. Turner was a force offensively and defensively, he played with the consistent aggression many felt he had been lacking throughout his career.
The revelatory stretch came to a cracking halt when Turner broke his nose. He has yet to see enough court time to accurately gauge how much his nose will effect him, if at all. But another lesson learned – this time in Turner’s absence – is how valuable he has been to the Indiana Pacers this season.
The Pacers defense has cratered without Turner this season. With Turner on the floor, the Pacers allow 101.2 points per game, 9.1 Points better than the league average for points allowed. In the five games without Turner the Pacers, almost unarguably the leagues best defense, are allowing 117.6 points per game. 117.6!
Normally, teams tread lightly against the Indiana Pacers defense. The Indiana defense shuts down drives to the basket and the Pacers rebounding wipes away second chance opportunities. Opposing teams resort to just trying to shoot over the Indiana defense instead of bothering with the fruitless endeavor of trying to pierce inside. The fulcrum that the defense pivots on is Myles Turner. Without Turner, the main deterrent is gone, and the Pacers become not only vulnerable over the top but at the rim and everywhere in between. It’s a similar situation when Roy Hibbert was at his peak. Hibbert at his best eliminated attacking the basket as an option of opposing teams. Teams had to settle for jumpshots and the Pacers defense thrived.
Now, Turner brings much more to the table than Hibbert did (like offense), but removing either from the defensive end dramatically decreased the margin of error for their respective iterations of the Indiana Pacers. Both on and off the court Turner’s presence in undeniable now, if he maintains this level of play, his new contact will immediately become a bargain.
Players trending in the right direction
During our last quarterly report, the shooting of Thaddeus Young and especially Darren Collison were reflected upon. They were shooting terribly. Bojan Bogdanovic, meanwhile, was leading the league in three-point shooting. In the second quarter of the season, all three player’s percentages have trended in the opposite directions.
Collison shot 43.9% from three over the season’s second quarter, the 14th best mark in the league. Fun tidbit, Myles Turner was second in the league over that stretch. Collison’s accuracy has been all the more remarkable because of how atrocious his three-point shooting was during the season’s first quarter. Collison made a total of 13 threes, shooting 31.7% from deep. It was a career-low by seismic proportions. Add it up and Collison shot 38% better from three than he did in the first half. This should be reassuring to Pacers fans that Collison’s season-opening slump was just that: a slump – which appears to be over. Another impressive aspect of Collision’s second quarter, he dished six assists for every one turnover. Not too shabby.
Young, like Collison, had almost a career-worst beginning to this season. He was averaging a sub-standard 9.7 points per game while missing 86% of his attempted threes. Young was still performing his usual glue-guy duties, making winning plays and such. He just couldn’t shoot.
That is not the case anymore. During the season’s second quarter, Thad Young averaged 15.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. His three-point shooting rocketed 181% from the first half to an above average 38.2% over that same stretch. Young also had a splendid four game stretch, from December 8 to December 14, where he averaged a double-double (21.3 points, 10.5 rebounds).
Bogdanovic’s first quarter was summed up a newly versatile offensive game and a firestorm from three-point range. 53% was his three-point percentage, best in the league by daylight. Bogdanovic’s second quarter saw his offensively versatility sustained but saw his three-point percentages fall off: it was 36.7%.
This isn’t all bad, the encouraging reading was that Bogdanovic was still tremendously effective from the field while not shooting a stellar rate from deep, a reality that seemed impossible before the season began. The assumption was that Bogdanovic’s brings space to the offense and little else. Not anymore, Bogdanovic is still dangerous even when his shot isn’t falling.
The Eastern Conference is quite Top-Heavy
The 2018-19 Eastern Conference is immensely competitive…for its top five teams and only its top five teams. Milwaukee, Toronto, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston are separated by 6 games and serves as proof that the East’s elite up top. All five have a win percentage of .600 or above (or close enough to round up).
Each tier below is clearly delineated. The second tier belongs to six mediocre teams: Miami (who’s above .500), Brooklyn, Charlotte, Detroit, Orlando, and Washington. Four games separate these teams.
Then there is the third tier: Atlanta, Chicago, New York and the breathtakingly terrible Cleveland Cavaliers (who, equally breathtakingly, upset the Pacers on December 18). This group is playing for lottery balls. Although Atlanta has had decent success, relatively speaking.
At the top, the only thing slowing Toronto is injuries. Only one Raptor has played in every game, Pascal Siakam. Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry have missed a combined 19 games. Fortunately for the Raptors, their depth is fantastic. Before the season there was a fair debate between Toronto and Indiana for the best bench in the East, a race so far won by Toronto. They excel at a switching style perimeter defense, which can be beaten inside, but if you get stuck playing their game you’re in trouble.
Milwaukee is an interesting case. No team in the NBA has won a higher percentage of their games via blowout as the Bucks have. Milwaukee is 20-3 in games decided by 10 points or more, meaning when their offense clicks it’s nearly unbeatable behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. The kicker is that Milwaukee is 9-9 in every other type of game. If either the Bucks struggle from deep or a team can make them play four quarters, the Bucks become an average basketball team. Typically, there are fewer blowouts in the playoffs, just food for thought.
Boston and Philadelphia both are experiencing various levels of discord. Jimmy Butler has again had issues with his own team‘s personnel, while Boston tends to play either up or down to their competition. A fun note on the Celtics, they effectively gave up on their much-hyped three wing lineup of Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford. That lineup was 7-6 together and haven’t started a game since November 17. Their most successful lineups have been more traditional: a Center (typically Horford or Aron Baynes), two scorers (Irving and Tatum), a versatile power forward (Marcus Morris), and Marcus Smart – who doesn’t need the ball. Boston just hasn’t figured out how to fit all their various pieces together yet.
The Indiana Pacers fit into this quintet quite well. Indiana is stable and potentially dynamic. It’s rare for the Pacers to not be competitive in any given game. But the further test lies ahead. Can Milwaukee sustain their torrid pace? Can Toronto get healthy? Can Indiana capitalize on a resurgent Myles Turner and defend the three? Will Boston and Philadelphia grow through discord or will it tear them apart? The answers lie in the second half ahead.