Since 82 doesn’t break down into even quarters, the Indiana Pacers technically zoomed past the season’s quarter pole at halftime of Tuesday’s game in Phoenix. It’s been an interesting, if imperfect, first quarter of the year. Here are six things to either like or dislike so far.
We’ve made it. It took 21 games but we made it, a quarter of the Indiana Pacers 2018-19 season has been completed. The first quarter of games went… okay. Epical tomes won’t be written about them, but there was more good than bad.
The Pacers spent most of the first quarter in the East’s upper third. Indiana is one of just six Eastern teams with a winning record, which is embarrassing, not for the Pacers but for the Conference. The 18-19 team is currently a game better (13-8) than the magical 17-18 squad’s start (12-9).
Victor Oladipo, though currently out, proved last year was no fluke. He averaged nearly 24 ppg (while shooting 45% from the field and 34% from three) in games he’s played uninjured. That would be good for 15th best in the league, instead, he’s currently 21st. The Pacers, unlike last year, aren’t hapless in his absence either. Indiana has won more than they lost in the five games Oladipo’s been absent for, a significant improvement on the 0-7 mark Indiana posted last season.
But, Oladipo’s continued journey to stardom doesn’t really qualify as a thrilling revelation, and it definitely doesn’t qualify as a disappointment. Here are six observations from this season’s first quarter that do count as one of those things.
1. The blossoming of Bogdanovic and Sabonis
Bojan Bogdanovic and Domantas Sabonis each showed up to play this season. Both posted career years last season, only to better them this season.
Bogdanovic has spent the first quarter of the season proving he belongs among starting small forwards in the league. At 53%, he’s the league’s best three-point shooter by a mile. He’s shooting 32% better from deep this year than last year when he shot a stellar 40%. But Bogdanovic’s biggest growth has come inside the three-point arc. His ability to attack off the dribble has dramatically improved. His passes are sharper, and he’s been swiftly driving past real-life defenders.
Bogdanovic was good last year, but he was hardly dynamic. That has changed this season.
Likewise, Sabonis continues his meteoric improvement year-after-year. His points and rebounds per game jumped by 97% and 114%, respectively, from his rookie season in Oklahoma City to his debut season in Indiana last year. He’s improved by 24% and 26% again this season. He’s grabbing two full rebounds more per game this year over last and his shooting percentage has rocketed from 51.4% to 66.7% (a 30% bump) that’s good for second in the entire NBA (he still leads the league in true shooting percentage). And he’s doing it all in just 24.7 minutes per game.
Sabonis is at his best when attacking in a crowded area. If the Indiana Pacers let him dribble 3-6 times before shooting (this normally happens when he catches the ball at the top of the key and drives or backing some loser down) he’s making 70.6% on his attempts. Sabonis is also the rare player who puts up his best numbers without space around him. He’s shooting 71.9% with defenders in “very tight” coverage, as opposed to 56.5% when he’s wide open, per NBA Advanced Stats. Those numbers mean that when he attacks the paint, thereby taking it to the defense, Sabonis is flourishing.
Since he’s been driving better, that has only made his passing game more lethal. Sabonis accounts for the sixth highest percentage of his team’s assists (among players at least 6’10”) in the entire league. The five giants who account for a higher percentage? Nikola Jokic (maybe the best passing big man since Domantas’ father Arvydas retired), Ben Simmons (a point guard), Pau Gasol, Blake Griffin, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The only player of those five with a lower usage rate than Sabonis is Gasol.
The moral of the story is that good things tend to happen when Sabonis touches the ball.
2. Indiana’s sticky fingers
Defense is difficult to grade, but by most standards, Indiana has been very good this season. While no team regularly holds teams to under 100 points, only Memphis (102.0) allows fewer points per game than the Pacers (102.2). For further perspective the league average is 110.6 – Indiana is allowing 8.4 points per game less than the league average.
Indiana is also the third-best team in the league when it comes to thievery (Indiana 9.2 steals per game, first place OKC has 10.6). The Pacers have the eighth best defensive rebounding percentage (74%, league-leading Milwaukee has 76.5). They have the fourth best defensive rating (just a point behind the Thunder). And Indiana is the league leader is disallowing opponent points in the paint (40.1). Add up all of that, and Indiana is firmly in the conversation for the best team defense in the league.
To be the devil’s advocate to my own article for a second, you can raise your hand to object to a couple points. First, something that helps the Indiana Pacers prevent scoring is that they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. We’ve already talked about how playing a slow pace doesn’t mean you’re actually playing slowly, rather it means that you’re playing fewer possessions per game than “faster” teams. Which is true, playing a slower pace means that the opponent has fewer opportunities to score. Although that hasn’t helped the Cleveland Cavaliers, who play at the third slowest pace and allow the seventh most points.
Second, one of the reasons that Indiana gets so many defensive rebounds and allows so few points in the paint is because NBA teams have resorted to shooting threes over the Pacer defense. Only Atlanta barely (by 0.1) allows opponents to shoot a higher percentage from deep than the Pacers do. And Atlanta is awful.
Part of the reason for that is that Indiana’s swarming defense is stout enough that teams feel they have a better chance finding an open look by avoiding the paint, which is a credit to Myles Turner‘s rim protection. It also highlights an area for improvement moving forward. Indiana has most of the defense-thing down, but they need to protect the three-point line better.
3. Slumping Collison
Darren Collison is not shooting well. Never in his professional career has Collison averaged less than 10.4 ppg, this year he’s at 8.9, which is a good name for a website but not great for a starting point guard who’s career average is 12.5. The only time he’s shot worse than his current 44.4 FG% was during the final year of his first stint in Indiana seven years ago. He’s one of the many Pacers who is having substandard performances from the free throw line. It’s not good.
Before we talk about his three-point shooting, here’s this. The phrase “regress to the mean” is used too much and wrongly on a lot on blogs. It’s liberally used whenever a player plays worse than what he had been doing either earlier in the year or in the season before. To regress, in basketball and everything, means an outperforming entity has receded to its typical performance level. Someone can also progress to the mean.
Anyway, I say that to say this: Darren Collison’s three-point shooting has not regressed this season. That would be a compliment. His shooting has been disastrous. For three straight years, Collison shot above 40% from three, the mark of an elite shooter. Never in his career has he shot worse than 33% (which is below average by today’s standards). For his career, he’s a 39% three-point shooter (well above average). Collison is currently shooting 31.0% from three, which is bafflingly worse than his league-best 46.8% from a year ago.
If things level off, his shooting should come up as the season progresses. He’s never shot this inaccurately in his professional life. But Collison is not the only Pacer starter misfiring from the field. Thaddeus Young is also doing two things he hasn’t done in forever. He has not scored this few points per game (9.9) since his rookie year in 2007-08 (8.2). Additionally, his 17.4 3-point% is the lowest mark he’s posted in six seasons. It’s actually surprising that his 17.4% has precedent. Both Collison and Young should (law of averages here) see their numbers improve. But it’s going to keep holding back the team until they do.
4. The cutting of Doug McDermott
When Doug McDermott signed with Indiana, the Pacers knew they were getting someone who can shoot the three. He’s shooting 42.9% from deep, which is very good. He has picked up the scoring pace in the last nine days, scoring in double figures in four of the five games since November 19. His back-to-back 21 point performances in Utah and Phoenix are encouraging.
But we’re not here to talk about his shooting touch, the most eye-popping facet of his game has been his cutting. This might be the most Hoosier thing to notice, but McDermott ability to slice into the paint is as refined as anyone in the NBA. He’ll create assist opportunities for others just because he can cut into previously non-existent passing lanes. He’s creating scoring opportunities not only for himself but also for his teammates. The moment he jilts his defender and bolts into open space, the wing defender mumbles some profanities and has to zip in to cover the now open McDermott which then leaves another Pacer open. It’s a thing of beauty.
Two points.
5. Tyreke not catching on
What makes the Indiana Pacers special on offense over the last two years has been their egalitarian passing system. At times it can be basketball at its finest. The times when the ball seems to stop the most are when Oladipo is winding up to zoom past his defender, or when Indiana passes to Sabonis to let him quarterback from the top of the key. Frequently good things happen when those events occur.
What is new this season is Tyreke Evans holding the ball.
Evans seems to prefer one-on-one opportunities. It’s very common (54.2% of the time) for Evans to possess the ball between two and six seconds before he shoots, and when he does shoot, in these situations, it’s not accurately (36.5% per the NBA’s Tracking stats). He also likes to dribble a lot before he shoots but doesn’t shoot well in those situations either. This means that, all too often, when the ball ends up in Evans’ hands it stays there for a while until it clangs off the rim. That’s not good. When Evans does this, it disrupts the Indiana Pacers natural offensive rhythm, which is fine if disrupting the rhythm results in points scored. But Evans is posting two-year lows in points as well as shooting percentages.
Tyreke Evans has had some valuable moments. His performance on November 16 was invaluable to garnering a win in Miami, for example. But of all the new pieces to the Pacers roster for 2018-19, Evans has been the slowest in acclimating.
6. On Holiday
What a couple weeks for the rookie from UCLA. Aaron Holiday did not play in 10 of the first 15 games of the season. When he did play, it was for 16 total minutes and he scored 5 whole points. Then he checked in to a far-too-close-for-comfort game, in Indianapolis, against Atlanta and, oh my…
Since then he’s scored in double-figures in every game except on Tuesday in Phoenix. His 11.2 ppg would be the eighth highest among rookies if it was over the course of the full season. His slash line is not too shabby (47-25-79). The most impressive attribute about Holiday can’t be found in the stat book. He fills Pacers-fans with confidence. Each three-pointer sunk feels like it’s worth four. And it’s mostly because of his performance on that Saturday night against Atlanta.
What Holiday represents is hope. He can score from deep, he can drive, he’s unafraid, he can defend and he can set up his colleagues. It’ll be interesting to see how Holiday finishes out the year.
While there’s a quarter of the season gone, here’s to the three that remain. We’ll keep an eye on how the Indiana Pacers play out. Now, on to the City of Angels.