If a recent report is correct, LeBron James has winnowed his possible destinations down to four. While the Indiana Pacers are not one of them, how would each move affect the Pacers?
It turns out The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor created a bit of a stir, a week ago Thursday, when he reported that LeBron James has a final four list of free agent destinations. What was a little funny was that the article wasn’t specifically about James, but news can find you in unexpected and mysterious ways. On the list is Houston and Cleveland, Tinseltown and the City of Brotherly love.
"There have been whispers, mostly on social media, about whether LeBron James would consider the Spurs because of the mutual respect between James and Popovich, now the coach of the U.S. men’s national basketball team. But I’ve consistently heard from multiple league sources that LeBron currently has only four teams on his list: the Cavaliers, Lakers, Rockets, and 76ers. -Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer, March 8, 2018"
Now, I have no way of knowing whether those “multiple league sources” are actually multiple league sources or not. What I do know is that O’Connor’s a good writer and that all of those locations make sense. So, if it’s not true it should be.
Each of these moves would not happen in a vacuum. For example, if LeBron “blasts off” to Houston, the Rockets aren’t going to just add him and keep their entire roster intact. To add LeBron and keep valuable pieces like Chris Paul and Clint Capela (both free agents), Houston would have to do some gymnastics to make it work. Which brings us to the point of this article: the gymnastics and the opportunities they might create for a team like the Indiana Pacers.
Signing James doesn’t just benefit the team that he takes his talents too, the ripple effect of benefits can be far reaching. Valuable players become not only expendable, but morph into must-moves. Then, due to the importance of cap space, LeBron’s new team can’t accept much salary in return, meaning an opportunistic team (or teams) can acquire a useful player for relatively little.
The Pacers might have no interest in any of the players that could be available. But, what the heck, let’s brainstorm a little. What could Indiana stand to benefit from each of James’s final four teams.
LeBron James stays with the Cleveland Cavaliers
We are starting here because it’s the most boring. After all the anticipation and passive-aggressive Instagram posts, LeBron James stays at the shore of Lake Erie. This might not be a permanent long-term signing, James could just keep Cleveland’s feet to the fire by signing another short-term deal with a player option, as he’s been want to do.
If James stays, the Cavs would retain their status as Eastern Conference contender. But they need to improve (i.e. add someone who, you know, protects the rim). The Cavs have played in 15 games since their tradeapalooza on February 8, and the results have been less than stellar (they’re 8-7 since the deadline).
Positive: Larry Nance Jr. has been really damn good. He’s been their second best player since the trade. Jordan Clarkson has been pretty good too, but Nance is the breakout player. Ironically, this author made the case for Indiana trading for both Nance and Clarkson at the deadline. Admittedly the Lakers got a ton more in return from Cleveland than the Indiana suggestion. Negative: neither George Hill nor Rodney Hood have been all that impressive. The Cavs’ net rating with Hill on the floor is plus-2.9, tenth best on the team and his PIE (player impact estimate) is 5.4 13th on the team. Hood’s been a little better (plus-3.8, and a PIE of 6.5).
Another negative is that Cleveland has yet to figure their rotation out, and another wrench will get tossed into the mix when they have to shuffle everything whenever Kevin Love returns.
In other words, the gigantic Cavalier trade deadline has netted a mixed bag (at best) as a return. If James decides to stay home, he’ll be expecting a further shake up which will be tough to accomplish, but the Cav front office has done it before.
Impact on Pacers
Probably not much. Not only would it leave a Central Division rival still intact, but it takes their most intriguing pieces off of the table. Kevin Love? He’d be a nice fit with Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis.
He’d cost a lot, but basketball-wise it’d work. Love, however, should also fit well with Nance (who is absolutely not available). Cleveland does have $88.1 million commited to Hill, Tristan Thompson and Kyle Korver over the next two seasons, which isn’t exactly a savory allotment of funds. But outside of maybe Korver, the Pacers should have next to no interest.
Houston Rockets
The Move:
Well, this would be something else. They have a dynamic trio (James Harden, Paul and Capela) that was won roughly 300% of the games that they’ve played together; and they surround those three with the type of role players that pose a significant threat to the Warriors’ dynasty. And the Rockets have the best record in the league.
Indiana Pacers
Houston does have a weird cap summer ahead of them. Currently they are well under the salary cap, which is the good news. The bad news is that valuable pieces (Paul, Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute) are either unrestricted or restricted (Capela) free agents. The Rockets have more than the gross domestic product of Tuvalu tied to Ryan Anderson over the next two seasons, which is great for Ryan and bad for Houston. If Houston wants to sign James and resign both Paul and Capela they’ll have to be creative. Just resigning Paul and Capela will push Houston up to, if not over, the salary cap. Which isn’t a problem, unless they want LeBron.
They could do a sign and trade with Cleveland. Sending both Anderson and Eric Gordon to Cleveland would work salary-wise, but I like Olaf’s chance of getting a suntan better than Cleveland thinking that trade is worthwhile. The only way they’ll be able to saddle Anderson’s contract on anyone is if they can find a team just looking to reach the salary floor and then sweeten the bejeezes out of it with a pick or two.
That’s not saying it’s impossible to move him. If LeBron decides on Houston, the Rockets will do what it takes to add him to the roster. It’ll just be interesting to see how they go about it.
Impact on Pacers:
If Indiana is looking for a 3-and-D type player, they should be very interested in this scenario. The Pacers could kick the tires on a player like Ariza, whom they could theoretically sign outright. But they could also try to be the benevolent organization that takes Eric Gordon off of Houston’s ledger. Fitting Gordon, or Ariza, in would be intriguing. Indy already has Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Glenn Robinson III and Bojan Bogdanovic on the wings, assuming Indiana resigns Robinson. It’s not like Indiana has a dearth of perimeter players.
But would Gordon fit? Both he and Oladipo are plus defenders, but if you started Gordon with Victor, it’d be a teensy-weensy perimeter unit. Indiana doesn’t really need a sixth man either with Stephenson on the roster. Lance isn’t in Gordon’s zip code when it comes to reliable shooting, but he’s a far superior passer and orchestrator. Adding a player of Gordon’s talents, as any Hoosier could tell you, isn’t a bad thing; the question would be does adding Gordon make the Pacers tangibly better? That answer is inconclusive.
Los Angeles Lakers
The long-fabled, much-anticipated dream is vivid, and in Los Angeles it feels like an inevitability: LeBron James saves the Laker franchise from the wasteland of mediocrity. The warning signs are neon bright. The has two mansions there. They’ve checked out a private school there. Yadda, yadda, yadda.
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L.A. has won eight of the 11 games that they’ve played since the All-Star break, which is encouraging. Their losses have only come against good teams (Portland, Denver and Golden State). There’s a lot to like about what the Lakers are showing. I doubt just signing LeBron is going to magically usher them into the private room occupied by Golden State and Houston.
To put it quickly, the Lakers are built to take advantage of other teams’ late season swoons. The Lakers have decent talent, which is a lot more than Memphis or Orlando can say. Most of their most productive players, over the last month, have bleak to nonexistent futures with the organization. Seven Lakers have averaged 14 or more points since the All-Star weekend, four of them (Julius Randle, Isaiah Thomas, Brook Lopez and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) aren’t viewed as integral to L.A.’s future. Two of the remaining three (Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart) have played a combined three games since the break, so the Lakers are succeeding almost entirely without them.
But, at the very least, this version of the Lakers with LeBron would be in the muck of the playoff conversation.
Of course, the plan isn’t to sign just James. He’d bring friends, and to pull it all off the Lakers would need to move some people. Like, for example, Isaiah Thomas would obviously not be welcomed back. If the Lakers do sign LeBron, it will be a busy summer for them.
Impact on Pacers
I’ve kinda already written about this. James isn’t going to be patient to let the Baby Lakers spend two to three more years rounding into shape. He’s a win-now type guy, as he should be. A player like Lonzo Ball looks like he’s got a future, but he’s nowhere close to being an All-Star. The Lakers would need to supplement him with a player like Avery Bradley, who’s game would better compliment James and Paul George whichever star would join James in L.A. While, the Lakers have the space to sign both James and George whomever, they don’t have enough space to sign those two any other significant supplementary players. Meaning, they’ll need to open up space.
This would make the Lakers, giddy to move any albatross contracts, like the one they are paying Luol Deng. If the Pacers want to capitalize on the Lakers passion for LeBron, finding a third team to accept Deng’s final two years, should do the trick. Then Indiana could receive a player freshly relegated to the bench (like Josh Hart) or maybe even Kyle Kuzma, in the trade. Ball, might be expendable too, since he skill set doesn’t exactly mesh with LeBron’s all that well. It would all be in an effort from the Lakers to add the experience necessary to contend with Golden State and Houston, which they could do, if they can further enhance their roster.
Philadelphia 76ers
By not resigning J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson, Philadelphia would have the space to sign James outright. And if he wants to find a good and young team, he wouldn’t need to look much further. They have Joel Embiid, they have a four who can do some floor stretching (Dario Saric), they have a wing who can do some floor stretching (Robert Covington) and they have a point guard who can do everything but floor-stretching (Ben Simmons). They also have a guard who can’t do anything at all (Markelle Fultz) but that’s neither here nor there.
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The Sixers with LeBron would be tantalizing because of the one-two punch of James and Embiid. But it would also be tantalizing because of the risks too. Embiid has played in 25 more games this year than he played in his first three years combined. Simmons has made exactly as many threes this year, in the NBA, as I have (hint, it’s not a lot). Simmons would become much easier to defend if he was moved off the ball. And no one knows what’s happening with Fultz.
James going to Philly isn’t a lock that it will result in a title, but the potential of them summiting the league can’t be dismissed either. Philadelphia would need to add shooters to their roster. They might even need to acquire a backup for Embiid because without him Philly would become rather one dimensional.
And then there is Simmons. The Australian is undoubtedly a major part of the draw in favor of Philadelphia, but his presence on the floor would also be a reason to doubt it’s possible success. What Simmons does well (drive/create for others with the ball in his hand) is exactly what James does well. The other major problem and I hinted at this earlier, Simmons does not stretch the floor at all. The furthest away shot he made this year was a 20-footer, in February, against the Heat. Yikes. If they didn’t move Simmons, they’d have to stager his minutes with James to be successful.
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Impact on Pacers
Addition by subtraction. James would no longer be in Cleveland, which would make Indiana the favorite in the Central. Maybe Indiana could make a run at signing JJ Redick, although Philly would have a really strong counter-argument (play with LeBron James). Maybe wings like Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot or Justin Anderson could be available, but that’s not going to raise the needle.