As the Indiana Pacers demonstrated in the last offseason, the Pacers are pretty good at this trading thing. Where might the next big Pacer acquisition come from?
There is a ton to love about the 2017-18 Indiana Pacers. Fifth in the East at the All-Star break; the playoffs likely ahead; Victor Oladipo being really, really good; a roster full of players you can root for; and legitimately not too much to complain about. And, to be clear, this isn’t going to be one of those nit-picky articles. (LOOKING AT YOU, RYAN.)
But, since we have no games on the calendar let’s take a look ahead at how the Pacers can keep improving during the upcoming offseason. Yesterday we published a story on what the free-agent landscape should look like — spoiler, it’s going to be cheap — today we’ll peak at the acquisition market and where the next Oladipo/Sabonis windfall could come from.
For starters though, a bit of full disclosure, I’m the type of “boring” writer that doesn’t think you should just make moves to make moves. You should make moves that have a tangible positive impact on your roster (i.e. basically what Boston, San Antonio, Golden State, and what a bunch of other good teams do). And looking at this Pacers roster there’s a lot to be happy about.
Oladipo can take over games. There is not one but two promising centers (Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis). There’s a point guard who compliments Oladipo extremely well (Darren Collison, who’s shooting the lights out this season, by the way).
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The second unit: Sabonis, Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson and eventually Glenn Robinson III is a unit as solid as most. So you don’t really need to tinker with the periphery of this roster to improve it, most roles are covered.
The area to improve is this disconcerting statistic: Indiana is 0-6 without Oladipo.
That’s a problem.
You have to have someone who can bear the weight when the star is gone and support the scoring workload when the star is active. In the mid-late 1990’s there was Rik Smits to share the load with Reggie Miller.
Then, for about a year and a half in the early 2000’s, Ron Artest was there to help shoulder the burden that Jermaine O’Neal carried.
While both Turner and Sabonis have flashed their capability for that role they aren’t quite there yet. Currently, Indiana doesn’t have that second consistently high scoring option. The Pacers aren’t going to improve much until they find that guy or guys.
Fortunately, there are options (both farfetched and realistic) this summer to do just that. The question is what type of players Indy should target. And to do that we need to look for compliments to Indiana’s best players.
Who pairs well with Victor Oladipo?
In Oladipo the Pacers have a player who’s at his best with the ball in his hand and initiating the offense.
Vic has four nearly unstoppable shots: One is his hellogoodbye straight drive layup where he just accelerates past any and every defender. Two is his Gumby wrap-around layup thing. Three is his pull-up jumper from the top of the key. Four is his corner three where he’s shooting something like 5 billion-percent on his attempts (I’m kidding it’s actually a mere 64-percent).
To compliment Victor, you’d need a wing who can stretch the floor. Someone who is dangerous off the ball and moves around the court well.
The ideal wingman can’t just be a catch and shoot scorer either, otherwise, that would render him much more defendable. He needs to be able to hurt you on drives. His defense needs to be at least average — he’ll have to guard threes after all — he doesn’t need to be all-world, but he can’t be a liability either.
Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner need a friend, too
Turner and Sabonis are both centers but they pay the position differently. They both run the pick and roll well. However, Turner prefers to hang around the perimeter, while Sabonis is more refined inside. Sabonis is the more consistent rebounder, Turner is the better shot blocker.
They both have a lot of room to continue developing (both are 21 years old) and learn how to collaborate together, something that the pair has yet to master.
The best compliment for them would be a versatile power forward, one with a competent low-post game but also with the ability to stretch the floor. He needs to have the size to battle for the rebounds that Indiana should reel in better but also the agility to guard on the perimeter.
And most importantly the four needs to allow the space for Turner and Sabonis to continue to blossom, meaning he needs to be a confident yet efficient scorer. He shouldn’t need a ton of shots to be dangerous.
Now, one of this means that Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young don’t fit these categories. At times they do very well. I’m just saying that if you want ideal compliments for your three best players, this is the recipe. A dynamic off-the-ball wing, and a versatile power forward who has the nose for rebounding.
To identify potential targets I’ve broken them into teams to watch. It’ll highlight the player, why they’d fit and why their current team might move the player.
Who does the Magic have that the Pacers want?
The Orlando Magic are the Cleveland Browns of the NBA, they collectively stink but some of their individual parts aren’t all that bad.
The word on the street, at the Trade Deadline, was that Orlando was looking to undergo another rebuild, but at this point, they aren’t rebuilding anything they’re in a whole new just old-fashioned “building” process.
Poor Frank Vogel. Anyway, something anathema to whatever Orlando is trying to do is having long-term contracts on the ledger, like Bismack Biyombo’s unmovable 4 years/ $72 million contract. That aversion could make Orlando both vulnerable and a willing trading partner.
Aaron Gordon, PF
I talked about him a little bit in the last article, but there are a ton of free agents who will be available at discounts this offseason. But most aren’t impact players, and while banking on restricted free agents is normally a reckless thing to do, Gordon’s makes sense. If Orlando wants to blow up their already young roster, and try again, paying any player $15-$19 million a year doesn’t make a ton of sense.
It’d be worthwhile poking around because Gordon can flat play. His offensive game speaks for itself, but he’s an underrated passer too. Gordon likes to hop down the side of the lane then do this little double-underhanded shovel pass thing to the other open big after the entire defense collapses on him that always works.
Gordon is also a tenacious rebounder. It’s not uncommon to see him pogoing up and down trying for tip-ins. Then, while he’s not in Turner’s league as a shot blocker, he’s not a defensive sieve either. Gordon’s the type of versatile big that would mesh with both Turner and Sabonis well, all the while providing Oladipo with a consistent high-scoring option to dish to.
Evan Fournier, G-F
Fournier can run a master’s class on moving without the ball. Watching him whip around screens is like watching a middle-classed Frenchman’s version of what Reggie Miller used to do. Fournier is also a knockdown shooter who knows how to find the outlet spots around the perimeter and always has his hand up ready to let fly.
However, he’s not anchored behind the arch. Fournier does well at creating his own shot off the dribble, using a couple careful body-bumps to create space. Like Danny Granger, he’s miscast as a number one scoring option, but he could be a lethal second or third option on the perimeter.
His defense is undersold. He’s not spectacular, but he’s not terrible either. He struggles when he’s switched onto short quick guards, and against superstars like Kevin Durant. But who doesn’t?
All things considered be plays fundamentally sound defense uses his peripherals well and rarely loses track of his man. He’s also been available almost since Orlando signed him to his most recent contract.
It might just take two of the Pacers non-guaranteed deals to land him, providing Orlando will cap relief and Indiana with a wingman for Oladipo.
The Pacers and Nuggets can prospect for (trade) gold
The Denver Nuggets are in an interesting spot. They have a very good and young team. Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray have all winked all-star potential. Harris, in particular, is an excellent shooting guard, doing Indiana proud in the process.
The only problem for Denver is that their roster is going to get really expensive. They are already over the cap, and if they want to keep Jokic, Will Barton (a free agent this year) and Trey Lyles, they’ll be a taxpayer very soon.
Trey Lyles, PF
Lyles has both some size (he averages the same amount of rebounds as Thad Young but in about a dozen fewer minutes a game) and a shooting touch from the outside (he’s shooting 40% from three). I’ll have to admit, my favorite thing about his games is that he wears those Easter egg blue sneakers, which not only look great but are super easy to spot.
Lyles’ problem is that he’s stonewalled from more playing time in Denver.
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Currently, the Nuggets like starting Jokic at the four and Mason Plumlee at the five. When Paul Millsap returns, Denver will have to start him and the four and shift Jokic to the five. At best Lyles is their third big and maybe their fourth come playoff time.
While Denver has an overabundance of bigs (they also have Kenneth Faried, Juancho Hernangomez, and Darrell Arthur) they don’t have much behind Harris and Barton on the wing. And Barton, as I said, is a soon-to-be free agent.
To be able to sign Barton and not creep up towards taxville, they’ll need to make some moves. Which is where the Pacers come into play. Indiana could offer an expiring contract to Denver for Lyles (who could start in Indiana) and one of their big contracts, like Faried.
Now, this doesn’t mean Indiana actually acquires Faried. If the Pacers and Nuggets can find a third team, this deal becomes near-perfect.
It would work like this: Indiana gets Lyles; Denver gets one of Indy’s expiring deals that would allow them to resign Barton; a cellar-dweller like, say Atlanta, would take on Faried’s expiring contract then receive a future draft pick each from Indy and Denver for shipping and handling.
If LeBron goes to the Lakers, the Pacers can go fishing for a trade
This whole section depends on one little thing: LeBron James signing with the Lakers. If that doesn’t happen, none of the rest of this applies. But if James does become a Laker, then a bunch of dominoes will begin to fall.
The Lakers shift immediately from a win-tomorrow team into a win-right-now team. Developing players have little value on a LeBron win-this-second squad. I don’t personally believe that, but LeBron does. The kicker is that after signing James, and a second star (cough Paul George, cough), the Lakers will still need to fill out complimentary veterans on an evaporated cap space. It makes their younger players expendable.
Kyle Kuzma, PF
You could fit Josh Hart or maybe even Brandon Ingram in this section too, but Kuzma would fit the best. He plays like a more consistent shooting version of Thad Young, and his development time-table would match that of both Turner and Sabonis.
Behind the Buck Pass
But, even if James signs with the Lakers getting someone like Kuzma would be tough unless Luol Deng is included in the deal. Again the Pacers don’t have to actually acquire Deng to make this deal work.
Say Indy offers Thad Young, a ready-made power forward who could start with James and George to form a rangy wing-unit. The Lakers would send Kuzma to Indiana, giving the Pacers a young starting versatile four that gives them scoring punch and pairs well with the two bigs.
Deng — who has two years left — goes back to Chicago where he’s beloved and can serve as a mentor for their young team while helping Chicago meet the salary floor.
Chicago would also receive a pair of picks for each year left on Deng’s contract (Indy’s ’19 first, ’20 second plus LA’s ’19 second and ’20 first, or whatever). This move would add a starter to the Lakers plus around $4 Million in cap space which could turn into three veterans on minimum contracts that would want to play with LeBron in L.A.
Enter Taxman, enter Kevin Pritchard
Klay Thompson, SG
I think Klay Thompson could be available this offseason. And here’s why: A day of reckoning is coming for this iteration of the Warriors.
Both Kevin Durant and Thompson’s contracts will be coming up (Durant could opt out this summer) and both would be owed extensions. Durant’s in the super-max range, Thompson just under it.
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Excluding Thompson for the moment: when Durant resigns damn-near the entirety of Golden State’s salary cap will be dedicated to three players (Durant, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green). If they then sign Thompson they will be pushing the tax with four players. And the tax is something Warrior-ownership cares about.
Moving Thompson at this offseason for a blue star package would not only save them money but also begin an inevitable restructuring in Golden State. If the Pacers made the trade, the cost would be high: start with either Turner or Sabonis, include an expiring deal, add in at least one youngster, plus a future first, then maybe another future first or young player.
And that might not be enough. Golden State doesn’t need to trade him, they could just play out his contract, be the favorite for another title and take their chances in the 2019 offseason.
Next: Victor Oladipo is playing better than Kyrie Irving
Thompson’s fit, while extremely unlikely, would be near-perfect alongside Oladipo. And while a Thompson-trade probably won’t happen the ambition to acquire a player like him or anyone in this article shouldn’t be dismissed.
The leverage to make deals, that Indiana will have in 2018, will be gone in 2019. Indy should consider using that flexibility to find the extra impact players to help them surge to the top of the East.