After a trade deadline in which the Pacers made no moves, their future remained intact and they still hold a strong team this year. That’s objectively great. But, they’ve opened up the possibility of a nightmare scenario for this season.
Despite the rumors, the Indiana Pacers entered 3 p.m. on Thursday with the exact same roster they had the day before. They didn’t make any moves to improve the 2017-18 team. They didn’t make any moves to improve their future prospects.
For many reasons, this is a pretty good thing. Many future-minded Pacers fans hoped for Kevin Pritchard to use the team’s cap space to take on a bad contract in order to score a nice young asset. A few Woj tweets confirmed the possibility, but ultimately nothing came of it. The right deal wasn’t on the table.
While that’s unfortunate, fans should be relieved that Pritchard didn’t force it. Taking on a bad deal for a lackluster pick/player would hurt the rebuild more than it would help, and Pritchard proved last summer that he’s more than willing to be patient to make the right moves. Besides, this summer is full of opportunity for the team, as most of the roster is still under contract for next year.
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Pritchard is essentially dealing with two teams right now: the current Pacers, and the Pacers in 3 or 4 years. The current Pacers are competitive and fun, but have no chance at winning a championship.
The team in 3 or 4 years might. Such a balancing act is what Pritchard signed up for. Perfect it, and the Pacers may look like Danny Ainge and the current Celtics. Mess up, and they’ll be looking more like the current Grizzlies.
The lack of a move eliminated any clarity the Pacers could’ve had for this year. If Pritchard dealed out the veterans for picks or young but inexperienced guys, the message would be clear that they have no intention of winning this year. If he had made an aggressive move for a win-now guy, it would’ve been clear that they could at least sort of contend in the playoffs this year.
With neither in play, this team could go three different ways. Two are good. One is a nightmare, and Pritchard’s action (as well as the rest of the league’s trades) made it a much more likely scenario.
Scenario 1: The Pacers pull off a miracle (Good)
The first (and probably most unlikely) scenario is that this team holds up and continues to improve. They actually grab the 4 or 5 seed and end up maybe even winning a playoff round. In such a world, the Pacers leap to the front of the pack that is the back half of the Eastern Conference playoff contenders and defeat teams that are much better on paper than them.
For scheduling reasons, this will be a tough feat. But, their immediate future looks good. Their final game before heading into the All-Star break is against the Brooklyn Nets, who are 19-38 on the year. And their first three games back? The Atlanta Hawks (18-39), the Dallas Mavericks (18-39) and the Hawks again.
Even though three of those four games are on the road, the Pacers stand a good chance at finishing 3-1 on the stretch. If they picked up all four games, they’d be 36-25 and almost assuredly fourth in the East.
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And so maybe, if they can ride that momentum and go through their last quarter of the season without burning out, the team could actually do what no one believed it could do: be a playoff contender.
And then maybe they could get some wins in the playoffs too. Barring catastrophic injuries, though, even a best-case scenario for this team doesn’t put them anywhere near championship level.
So, even though this scenario ends in the Pacers getting a bad pick for the 2018 draft, the wins would be invaluable to this team’s chemistry going forward. For Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, such success would be great for their confidence and ability to lead as the rebuild goes into its next phase.
All in all, if the Pacers somehow pulled this all off, it’d be a good thing for now and the future.
Scenario 2: Pacers miss the playoffs (Good)
While the Pacers didn’t make a move at the deadline, it effectively made their prospects of success this year worse. The Cleveland Cavaliers patched up any doubt that they’re the kings of the Central Division. The Detroit Pistons, who are currently behind the Pacers in the standings, grabbed Blake Griffin (and on a more low-key note, James Ennis).
Making the playoffs is no lock for the Pacers, even sitting 7 games above .500. They’re only one loss ahead of the worst loss-total in the East playoffs right now (the Heat have 26 losses, the Pacers have 25). Who’s in 9th? The Pistons, who only have 3 more losses and 1 more Griffin than the Pacers.
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Like the scenario where the Pacers do really well, the idea of the Pacers absolutely crumbling isn’t all that likely either. Not only would the Pacers have to stumble, but every other team in the East would have to keep their head above water as well.
Out of the Philadelphia 76ers, the Miami Heat and the Pistons, it’s likely that one of them will eventually fall off. It would take a perfect storm for the Pacers to end up with the 9th seed.
And even though it would sting now, this too is a good scenario for the Pacers. It wouldn’t be great for the 2017-18 team, but lottery picks are what this franchise needs. If Pritchard gets a top 14 pick, he has a lot more room to make magic as a GM.
Such a player could be one of the final pieces to a core of Oladipo, Turner and Domantas Sabonis. As good as the team seems right now, they’ve not a championship (or even an East) contender. They need a lot more and better assets to eventually become one.
Scenario 3: The Pacers get the 7-8 seed, swept in playoffs (Nightmare)
No one wants to see this, but the possibility of it happening shot up considerably after Thursday’s events. This Pacers team is well-cemented in the playoffs. If they fell, it probably wouldn’t be hard enough to knock them out. And they still probably aren’t good enough to actually make noise once April hits.
What does that leave? The nightmare scenario. The one that Pacers fans lived last year. The one that was the nail in the coffin for the Paul George era in Indianapolis. There is a decent chance that this team ends up with a bad playoff seed and ends up getting swept (or gentleman swept) in the first round.
The Pacers are probably the 7th or 8th best East team on paper. Their record reflects that they’ve outplayed their hand, but the final stretch of their season may bring them back down to earth. It seems fair to say that the Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers, Wizards and Bucks are solidly above this team and will likely finish above the Pacers in the standings. Their teams objectively have more talent. It would take a miracle (i.e Scenario 1) for the Pacers to leap past any of them.
That leaves the Pacers, 76ers, Heat and Pistons to fight for spots 6-9. The Pacers are probably landing somewhere in the middle. But even if the end up 6th, that means they’re facing one of the Big 3 teams in the East in the first round (Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers). Can this squad with little to no playoff experience put an actual dent into one of those squads?
It’s a bleak and pessimistic outlook, but it’s also a realistic one. After not changing anything at the deadline, this Pacers team might have cemented its place in no-man’s land for the 2017-18 season.
Such a scenario gives the Pacers the worst of both worlds. If they get swept by one of the blue bloods of the East, they don’t have much “success” to add to their development or chemistry. It’ll make 2017-18 feel like a failure, even though they weren’t expected to do much anyway.
Plus, their 2018 draft pick will be in the mid-to-high teens, which can often be the difference between a core piece and a role player. The Pacers lose out on both ends, and enter 2018-19 not much better off than they were at the beginning of this year.
It’s a bleak and pessimistic outlook, but it’s also a realistic one. After not changing anything at the deadline, this Pacers team might have cemented its place in no-man’s land for the 2017-18 season. It’s hard to see that given the team’s recent success, but a storm may be coming that makes an ugly mess out of what has consistently been an exciting year.
For what it’s worth, the players have gone out of their way to show their faith in this team in the final few months of the season. Faith can go a long way. But at the end of the day, talent matters, and the Pacers’ luck just might run out. A nightmare scenario is looming, and it’ll take one of two unlikely scenarios to prevent it.
Next: 8p9s Roundtable: No moves, good news?
But everything about this Pacers season has been unlikely, so maybe there’s still plenty of hope for this team yet.