Should Pacers Cash-Out for Kemba Walker?

The Indiana Pacers have built up quite the cupboard of assets, possibly enough to make a trade for a player of Kemba Walker’s ability. But is this the right time to do it?

No one was expecting the Indiana Pacers to be here last summer. A playoff team, two-and-a-half games back from the fourth seed, led by an All-Star, the Pacers are outperforming preseason expectations by a longshot.

Team president Kevin Pritchard constructed the contracts of their offseason signees Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic to sell at the deadline. Collison and Bogdanovic–solid reserves at worst–would be attractive to many teams, as their $10 million deals for next season are only partially guaranteed.

A buyer at the deadline could trade for either one (or both) and send back long-term, unwanted money. And to sweeten the deal for Indiana, said team could throw in a juicy asset (young prospect or pick), as Zach Lowe noted in October.

"Among my favorite versions of this: Winslow and Dion Waiters to the Pacers in exchange for Bojan Bogdanovic (on a semi-expiring contract), Cory Joseph, and perhaps some throw-in to make Miami feel less crappy about punting on Winslow. … Related bonus prediction: Indiana is a near-lock to flip one or both of Bogdanovic and Darren Collison, guaranteed just $3.5 million combined in 2018-19. If the Lakers send Luol Deng and Brandon Ingram to Indy for those deals (and some sweetener), the league should be very afraid L.A. knows a certain someone is in the bag."

It was very clear Lowe predicted these moves thinking Indiana had no true vision of what its future would look like. And who could blame him? The improvement of Oladipo almost came out of nowhere, and he has completely lifted this team to its current state.

With that said, Indiana may end up as a buyer at the trade deadline.

A few weeks ago, The Washington Post’s Tim Bontemps argued that Charlotte should trade point guard Kemba Walker (along with at least one of their bad contracts) to avoid the luxury tax this season. Included in the piece was this paragraph, which stoked the fire of Pacers Twitter.

"For another example, the Hornets could try to work out a trade with the Pacers, who have rebounded nicely from Paul George’s departure thanks largely to the man they acquired for him, Victor Oladipo. A trade of Walker and Williams for Darren Collison, Al Jefferson, rookie forward T.J. Leaf and Indiana’s 2018 first-round pick would allow Charlotte to essentially wipe out the $29 million owed to Williams over the next two seasons (thanks to Jefferson’s non-guaranteed salary for next season). The move removes the need for Charlotte to worry about the tax, and it also would receive a rookie project in Leaf, a first-round pick and – again – a boost to its own draft pick’s status. The Pacers could pair Walker with Oladipo and Myles Turner, potentially becoming an interesting team in the East."

It was an intriguing idea then, just three weeks ago. Once ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Charlotte was indeed willing to move off of Walker for the reasons Bontemps stated above, the idea turned into a real possibility.

On paper, this is a trade the Pacers need to make. Walker, nearly a year removed from his first All-Star appearance, is the only reason Charlotte isn’t dead last in the East. They are plus-13.2 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the floor this season, per Cleaning The Glass. His total on-off differential is plus-15.6, which ranks Walker in the 98th percentile among guards.

Walker’s numbers are down a bit from last season, which is why he’ll likely be sitting out of this year’s All-Star Game.

He’s still a very good player, though, and would help improve many teams at the point guard position–including the Pacers.

Whether he’s worth trading for is an intriguing question for this Indiana team, as talent isn’t the only thing to consider when it comes to adding a player.

Fit With Victor Oladipo

Walker’s fit alongside Oladipo has been a worry among Pacers fans, but it really shouldn’t be. Just because two players on the same team are better with the ball, it doesn’t mean they can’t produce without it.

The biggest revelation in Oladipo’s game this season has been his pull-up shooting, but his three-point catch-and-shoot numbers have quietly ticked up from 36.5 percent last season to 40.5% this season.

Keep in mind, Oladipo had much less attention in the shadows of Russell Westbrook last season and had more opportunities to fire open looks.

After starting his career as a 30 % 3-point shooter, Walker got that number up to 39.9% on 7.6 attempts per game in 2016-17. That number has dropped to 34.3% this season (7.1 attempts). It’s fair to wonder if the team around him has an impact on that, as no other player has the offensive gravitas to lure away help defenders.

He’s not at the elite 46.4% 3-point catch-and-shoot mark he was at last year, but this year’s 39.4% is still respectable.

Oladipo has also snuck away from defenders plenty this season, catching and finishing lobs.

On the defensive end, while Oladipo has been good this season, the Walker-Oladipo pairing would likely have to put their work in on offense to keep up with the top backcourts in the Association.

Age/Financials

Indiana’s core is Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. The latter two are 21 years old. With two key members of the core being so young, being patient and calculated in player acquisition is key.

Currently, the Pacers’ salary cap is clean. Behind Oladipo’s $21 million annual salary (which is looking like a major value, by the way), Indiana has no other big-money, long-term deals locked in.

That won’t be the case forever, though.

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Turner will be eligible for an extension this summer. But based on how this season has gone for him this far, it seems likely for him to wait for restricted free agency in 2019. Sabonis will be eligible for an extension next summer or will become a restricted free agent in 2020.

After the cap boom in 2016, the market has recovered and hit centers the hardest. There were no big names on the market last summer, but many of the available big men did not get what they wanted.

Nerlens Noel took his $4.1 million qualifying offer after not receiving the long-term deal he wanted, which may or may not have been more than $17.5 million per year.

The highest-earning big men of last summer were Pau Gasol (three years, $48.8 million, partial guarantee o the third year), Mason Plumlee (three years, $41 million) and Kelly Olynyk (four years, $45.6 million, fourth-year player option). These are not cheap deals, but these are also not bad players. Neither is Myles Turner, though he hasn’t improved at the rate many fans hoped after a good rookie campaign.

There is still a year and a half before he hits restricted free agency, but it doesn’t look like a lock for him to earn a full max salary–which would start at $27 million should the projected salary cap of $108 million in 2019 come to fruition.

It’s too hard to make predictions this far out, when salary caps are not set in stone and players improve. But by the time Sabonis’s time for a new deal comes, he probably won’t be a max player either.

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Let’s say by the time both of them are re-signed, they make a combined $40 million. That would be $61 million combined for the three players. Add in Walker, who will be owed a new deal in 2019 as well. Walker will have eight years of experience at that time, making him eligible for 30 percent of the cap and a max contract of over $32 million. And unlike the market for centers, the market for point guards is a very fruitful one.

If Turner and Sabonis make $40 million, and Walker makes $30 million, that would be $91 million tied into four players when adding in Oladipo. Keep in mind, when the time comes, Turner, Sabonis and Walker could certainly be making more than $71 million combined.

For round numbers sake, let’s just say the 2020 cap number comes in at $111 million — leaving Indiana $20 million in space. If Glenn Robinson III has a strong showing when he returns from injury, he could earn himself a $10 million deal this summer when he hits the free agency market. That would leave just $10 million in space to fill the remaining 10 roster spots (though they only have to carry 12 total players), unless they want to pay the luxury tax.

Teams take that financial burden for a team destined to at least make the Eastern Conference Finals every year. Maybe the Pacers would be at that time. But they are not guaranteed that just by adding a star talent.

And the prospects of re-signing a 29-year-old, 6-foot-1, 180-pound point guard to a long-term max deal are not particularly exciting.

Verdict

In the star-driven league that the NBA is, I am typically all for acquiring a star when the opportunity presents itself. For one, a star has proven himself as a star. Assets are only worth more if you do the right things with them.

But being patient can pay off, as Boston’s Danny Ainge showed last summer. NBA Twitter —including myself  — constantly made fun of Ainge for holding onto these precious assets but never actually turning them into anything — and then he turned them into Kyrie Irving. He was patient, didn’t jump on any and everything and ended up with one of the league’s best point guards. In the same summer, he signed Gordon Hayward.

Indiana probably doesn’t have the free agency pull that Boston does, but that doesn’t mean the Pacers shouldn’t follow suit. Walker is a nice player, but as we’ve seen over the past couple of years, star players becoming available is not a rarity.

Indiana could keep their cap clean, hit on a draft pick and then find themselves in a situation where they could acquire an even better player than Walker.

That plan includes simply hoping a lot of things work out. It’s easier to pull the trigger now and see where that gets you. But patience and hope got Boston into the position they are in now, and if the Pacers play their cards right, they could be in a similar spot some day.

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When it comes to acquiring a star, not many people would be upset. And if the Pacers did trade for Kemba, I would be cautiously optimistic. But it makes a lot more sense for the Pacers to feel out what they already have before making a move that has some downside long-term.