8p9s Roundtable: The Pacers are better than expected, but is trouble ahead?

The Indiana Pacers are doing better than expected this season, but the 8 Points, 9 Seconds roundtable is gathered to look into the team’s future.

Who (or what) has been the biggest surprise the 1st half of this season? *

Ryan Eggers: I could try and make a saucy answer for this one, but it’s obvious: the trade pieces from the Paul George deal. While both were young guys that didn’t have the best chance to shine in OKC, I doubt even Kevin Pritchard could have predicted this sort of growth.

Victor Oladipo is playing the best basketball of his life and is almost a shoo-in for Most Improved Player, and Domantas Sabonis has played so well that some people are ready to move forward with him as the franchise big over Myles Turner. That take might be a little farfetched, but it’s clear that both of these guys will be crucial parts of the Pacers core going forward.

Will Furr: Domantas Sabonis. Domas is shooting 14% better from the field, and putting up 12% better True Shooting. His offensive rebound percentage quadrupled (!!!!) and his overall rebound percentage doubled.If Victor Oladipo wasn’t superman, he’d be a contender for most improved player. (Note – Victor Oladipo is an obvious option here as well. I picked Domas because Oladipo had already put up big numbers elsewhere, and was on an 80 million dollar contact).

Domas didn’t even look like a rotation player last year. This year, some fans are clamoring for him to start over Myles Turner. To quote Luke Wilson, I did not see that coming!

Ben Renz: Domas, easily. I expected very little from the Lithuanian Addition. He played in 81 games last season with a Russ-dominant OKC team, shooting 39% from the field and looking every bit the rookie he was.

There was no reason to completely write the guy off, but he became so much an afterthought that he was hardly mentioned when it was time for the long-fabled PG trade to take place.

But now it’s January and I am fairly confident Domas’ numbers aren’t fool’s gold: 53% from the field on nine shots/game, 12.4 PPG, and 8.3 RPG (up from 3.6). He’s playing only five minutes more per game than last year, too, and getting to the line almost thrice as much. Domas’ play has been surprising and seems to be here to stay.

Tony East: Oladipo is the obvious answer, and the answer I am going with. Being an IU grad myself, I had seen flashes of Victor dominating his opponents before, but I thought he just just a prolific scorer in the NBA.

Then, his first 15 or so games of this season I thought were so surprising and impressive, but I thought he couldn’t sustain it. Now, I am eating my words, as he has been a star for over half the season. Just incredible.

Ben Gibson: Victor is the more exciting surprise, but the fact Domantas Sabonis is making some people ask if he should start over Myles Turner.

While some people forget what the term ‘throw in’ means, that’s what Sabonis was in the trade — at least in both outside observers minds. The thought at the time was Oladipo was going to be the one that determined the trade’s success or failure.

It turns out, both are playing much better than expected, but Domas is the bigger surprise.

Who (or what) has been the biggest disappointment?

Eggers: Another obvious one: Myles Turner. This is year 3- the year we usually see stars break out. Instead, Turner’s numbers have dipped in almost all statistical categories, while fellow 2015 draftees like Kristaps Porzingis and Devin Booker are having their expected breakout year.

Some of this can be attributed to some unfortunate injuries, but Turner still is failing outright when it comes to offensive aggressiveness and taking/making 3-point shots, a major point of emphasis for the guy who was supposed to take over the load offensively this year.

Obviously, the success of Oladipo changed those plans a bit, but there’s no reason why Turner shouldn’t have been able to make somewhat of a leap this year.

Furr: To me it’s Cory Joseph, but only because of the probably too high expectations I had for him. I thought he was a better shooter than his numbers coming into this year had shown, and I thought the Pacers starting 5 would benefit more from his shooting and defense than from what Darren Collison brought.

He hasn’t shown a starting level of basic playmaking, and Darren Collison has been much better than expected. I thought there was a real chance that CoJo would be the starting point guard to end the season and moving forward into his next contract. Short of injury, I don’t see him claiming that role just yet.

Renz: Dipo’s knee soreness and Myles’ sprained elbow.

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I had mentally prepared to be disappointed by nothing during this 2017-18 Pacers season and threw all expectations out of my thin, energy-deficient windows. Because of that, this season has exclusively consisted of surprises.

But Dipo’s five absences have been felt, and it’s unlikely that he plays out the remainder of the season without occasionally missing another game or two. By the same token, Myles has missed nine games so far, and is currently listed as week-to-week after hurting his elbow while dunking – simultaneously the coolest and uncoolest way to injure oneself.

Time will tell just how harmful these injuries will prove to be to the Pacers’ season. Cross your fingers, and try not to receive some freak injury doing so.

East: Glenn Robinson III’s injury. Robinson III was a part of the Pacers plans in both the present and the future. He was going to be one of the most prominent members of the rotation this year, and was looking to be groomed into a starter at some point down the line. His ankle injury unfortunately hurts both of those timelines, and it has been disappointing to see the amount of time he has missed already.

Gibson: It’s Myles Turner, but with a grain of salt. The injuries have now kept him out of roughly a quarter of the Pacers’ games this season. It’s hard for me to believe a 21-year-old got significantly worse over the offseason.

Turner was leading the league in blocks while still having to be the most overworked center when it comes to defending the rim. Maybe this season ends up being a wash, but I’d be shocked if Myles Turner doesn’t bounce back at some point.

Should the Pacers be buyers or sellers at the deadline (or stand pat)?

Eggers: Sellers, all the way. The Pacers have a good 4-5 movable pieces that almost certainly won’t be a part of their future. And realistically, I have some doubts about the viability of this squad when it comes to a postseason run.

If I thought they had a shot at winning a playoff series, I’d say go all in, keep the roster intact and go for it. But I’m not sure that’ll happen. And it’ll suck having to rebuild with first-round losses and high-teen draft picks.

If Pritchard can unload some veterans and grab some young talent and/or picks to boot, he should go for it. Nothing forced, though. I wouldn’t mind the Pacers holding if nothing worthwhile comes around.

Furr: If they’re going to be anything, it should be sellers. This team has been surprisingly good when healthy, and it’d be tempting to try to add a piece before the deadline. That would be the absolute wrong move. The ages of the 3 guys they should be building around (25/21/21 for Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, and Domas Sabonis) would likely not sync up well with any incoming deadline help.

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The Pacers should be building towards that timeline, rather than scraping and selling out future picks/money to maybe get into a competitive first round series. I would think it far more likely that some of the soon to be free agents (or guys with light guarantees next year) become available.

It’s hard to trade an important piece of a playoff team, but if the Pacers start to fall out of it, you could see guys like Thad Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Darren Collison become available.

Renz: This is a tough Q. Do the Pacers – who may or may not be overachieving in a weird season for the NBA’s East – trade a pick + TJ Leaf + salary for a useful piece for a playoff push? Who is that useful piece – and is it smart to pull the trigger before we know what Glenn Robinson III will bring to the team after recovering from ankle surgery?

Then, there is the argument that the Pacers should ship out a vet – maybe for a pick or a young player, maybe for someone who fits better with this team. Thad’s name gets floated out the most during these trade musings, and while his box-score production could be equaled by a few guys, will any of those guys truly be available, and if so, can they provide the intangibles Thad gives Indiana?

And if the Pacers were to trade one of the other vets — say DC or Bojan — could the team reasonably expect to receive a pick or a young prospect in return?

I’m not so sure the grass is greener in this case. I vote the Pacers play this season out with the roster they have.

East: Stand pat is my short answer. The team is exceeding expectations and a trade could break the chemistry that the team has been humming with. If I had to lean a direction, I would pick selling. This Pacers era will probably hit its peak in 3 or 4 years, with Vic in his prime and Myles/Domas approaching it

If the Pacers could get good future value for Collison/Bogdanovic/Thad Young (guys who probably aren’t a part of the future) in a trade, I think they should do it.

Gibson: There isn’t a need to make a trade that the Pacers don’t ‘win’. The team is overperforming expectations, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to push in the chips.

Look at the Phoenix Suns if you want to find a team that overplayed their hand and ended up worse off by trying to win now.

If they trade away Darren Collison or Bojan Bogdanovic, that’s fine. I have no emotional investment in them. But pretty much everyone else I’d rather see stay with the team.

Chances are they couldn’t find a player that takes the team deeper into the playoffs anyway, so I don’t see the point of trading any of the team’s youth away for more established talent.

What will the Pacers record look like by the end of the year?

Eggers: The Pacers will finish with around a 40-42 record. The latter half of their schedule is pretty tough, and I’m worried about this injury for Turner. If he’s out for more than just the next few days, that defense won’t be able to put up wins no matter how well they’re playing offensively.

Furr: This team has a lot of tough games down the stretch. I’d be really impressed if the Pacers finish the 2nd half of the season over .500, and therefor the season too. Somewhere between 40 and 42 wins seems reasonable; anything over 44 would be a (happy) surprise.

Renz: 42-40. The second-half of the season isn’t likely to be better than the Pacers’ first-half, and that’s okay. There’s some tough basketball and a handful of road trips to come. There are the injuries to consider. A .500-ish finish and a playoff-appearance would still give the Pacers a strong season to be proud of.

East: 41-41. If you read Ryan Eggers piece last week, you know that the Pacers have some obstacles in terms of rest in the second half of the season. Don’t forget too that they have two different road trips coming up in the second half of the season, though they are doing well in the first one now. A challenging second half schedule will prevent them from getting too far over .500, but the playoff push should let them win a few games that they normally shouldn’t and I think they ultimately finish 41-41.

Gibson: 44-38. I think they’ll ultimately win a few more games than we expect thanks to their style of play. As we saw against the Cavaliers and other teams this season, even when they’re down they can rip off enough points to keep themselves in games even when they trail by 20 or more.

I’m not betting too much on them winning more than 44 games, and I’d certainly take the under if money were on the the line. But unless the Pacers trade away veterans to get younger, they’re going to surprise us with a record just above .500.

Will the Pacers make the playoffs this year? What seed?

Eggers: Unfortunately, I think they eek in as the 8th seed. As much as I love this team and want them to success, I have my doubts and think they will end up at or slightly below .500.

Unless both the Pistons and the 76ers can keep up pace for the rest of the year (and I don’t think both will), that puts the Pacers at 8th. Their resilience will surely be admirable, but I doubt they’re going far at that spot.

Furr: I think so. They’re somehow going to wind up matched against the Cavs in Round 1and look like they could’ve beaten every other East time while losing in 6.

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In all actuality, seeds 8 through 6 are certainly attainable; I’ll split the difference and say the Pacers wind up with the 7 for the 2nd straight year.

Renz: Barring future injury trouble, I think the Pacers will slot into the playoffs, probably somewhere in the six-to-eight range. However, if the Heat cool off — a very real possibility — and the Wizards continue their confusing play, the Pacers could be in the mix for those four or five spots, too.

What I’m trying to say is, yes, the Pacers will make the playoffs.

East: Yep, probably 7th or 8th seed. I think seeds 7-9 are between the Pistons, 76ers, and Pacers. Given Joel Embiid’s injury history and the general youth of the team, there is reason to believe they could flounder down the stretch. The Pistons are floundering now. The Pacers could finish above these teams, but Turner’s injury hurts. It will be a close race but ultimately I think they sneak in.

Gibson: They will make the playoffs and due to the instability outside of the top three — Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers — I don’t think the 5th seed is out of reach. Unless one of the teams can separate from the back, I think we’ll see Indiana bounce between the 4th and the 8th seed, but I think they’ll settled in around the middle.

What is one bold prediction you have for the rest of the season?

Eggers: I figure my negative predictions about the team’s record is bold enough for everyone, but to throw in an additional one: Sabonis will be starting in some capacity by playoff time. My guess and hope is that he’ll be thrown in alongside Turner, but who knows what will happen with Turner’s current injury.

His production is solid, and I figure once the Pacers start slipping in the standings, Nate McMillan is going to start looking for answers. Sabonis is likely going to be one of them.

Furr: Domantas Sabonis starts more games than Myles Turner the rest of the year. Turner has seemed to be a slow healer at times, and the brace he had on his elbow didn’t look minor. I don’t think Sabonis starts while Turner is healthy, but I think that Turner misses half of the remaining games (or comes back through the 2nd unit while shaking off the rust), and Sabonis starts at least 19 in the last 37.

Thaddeus Young silences the doubt about him being replaced as a starter. — Tony East

Renz: Dipo scored a career-high 47 points last month, but I’m gonna predict he gets a 55-point game before the season is over. He takes enough shots, and one of these nights, the Pacers are gonna need him to take more shots, and he’s gonna step up.

As a squad, the Pacers are shooting 38% from deep this year – good for second in the league – and sure, I’ll boldly predict that they keep that up. I’m far less confident in this prediction, but ya know, whatever.

East: Thaddeus Young silences the doubt about him being replaced as a starter. Eventually, it may make sense to start Sabonis alongside Turner, but Thad Young is a damn good player. Once his thigh is fully healed and he is more comfortable playing again, he could have a few nice games that make you forget about any idea of changing the starters. His impressive performance against the Jazz could be a start of a nice run of games for Thad.

Gibson: The Pacers trade Bojan Bogdanovic. I like him, but I could see the Pacers trying to package him with someone else — maybe even Darren Collison — to try to get a pick or some younger talent.

Kevin Pritchard wisely signed both to two-year contracts. If they keep them, their salaries are off the books in the summer of 2019. And that’s why other teams might target them in trades. For a contender or any team looking to improve, they offer them something in the short-term while allowing them to dump their salaries if things don’t work out.

Bonus question: Would this season’s pacers (23-20 after 43 games) beat last year’s Pacers (22-21)?

Eggers: Probably not. I think people are looking at Paul George with garbage-tinted glasses, but he’s still an elite player and defender. Turner is also a little worse this year than last year. And last year’s Jeff Teague probably tops Darren Collison. The X-factor though? C.J. Miles. Overall, I think that team was better than its record showed and would beat this year’s team more times than it wouldn’t.

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• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
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Furr: I don’t think so. Oladipo’s numbers (and gravitas in the clutch) have been fantastic, but PG contained him pretty well when they played earlier this year. PG probably wins that matchup, last year’s Myles Turner probably beats this year’s, Teague/DC is a relative wash, and Bojan wins out of Ellis. I think it’d be close, and maybe Oladipo’s late game panache carries this year’s squad, but I don’t think so.

Bonus question: Would this season’s pacers (23-20 after 43 games) beat last year’s Pacers (22-21)? *

Renz: Of course they would! This team has heart. This team doesn’t talk out of the side of its neck. This team has Victor Oladipo!

Look, Paul George did some invaluable things for this franchise, etc etc. But he has proven, at 27, he is NOT a leader. Dipo looks to be that leader for this Pacers squad. I’ll take the team with the leader over the team without one, any day.

East: Nope. Last year’s team could defend pretty well on the wing between GR3 and Paul George, so I would guess they have enough defense to overcome this years team. Though that would be an excellent game to watch.

Next: The depths of Pacers 3-Point shooting

Gibson: In a game? Yes. In a series? No. The current teams volitile nature allows them to beat almost any team on a given night, but in a series it’s harder to beat superior talent.

There was a reason why the Pacers put up more of a fight than any other team in the East than the Cavaliers. They had talent. It wasn’t gelling, but we’ve seen enough Playoff Paul George to know they ultimately would overpower this year’s team.

Maybe when Sabonis, Myles, and some of the others are a little older and a little more polished, but the current roster wouldn’t hold up in a best of seven series.