Hey, that Domas Sabonis kid is pretty good: 3 things it means for the Indiana Pacers

Two weeks into the 2017-18 season, Domantas Sabonis has done nothing but soar past expectations, dispel doubters, and play like one of the best players on the team. So, now what?

Back in the sweltering days of summer, back before Victor Oladipo was averaging 25 a game and almost everyone bemoaned how Indiana got swindled by Oklahoma City, Domantas Sabonis was a mystery.

Not anymore.

Now Sabonis is (excluding Myles Turner’s numbers, since he’s only played one game) second on the team in scoring (12.9 ppg), first in rebounding (11 rpg), seventh in the NBA in field goal percentage (minimum 4 games played), the second most used pick-in-roll mate in the league (41.2), and has looked every bit the starting center that the Pacers have been playing him as.

It looks like Sabonis didn’t accept the notion that the Pacers should pack it in this year and try again next year. Which isn’t bad, there are at least seven teams that are off to horrendous starts (Lakers, Heat, Suns, Bulls, Kings, Hawks and Mavericks) and all but Miami intentionally lack the firepower to recover. So what does Doma’s emergence mean for the Pacers going forward?

We can name at least three.

Domantas Sabonis can rebound

For two seasons Indiana saw a lot of their missed shots wind up in the hands of someone wearing the wrong color uniform. The Pacers were out-rebounded five times during the first seven games in each of the previous two seasons. It also looks bad when you add up the net rebounding, Indiana posted a deficiency both years (-17 in 2016-17 and -37 in ’15-’16.)

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That’s not the case this year. Indiana is a net positive (+6) on the glass. They’ve out-rebounded Brooklyn, Minnesota, and Sacramento drew even with Miami and San Antonio, and were out-rebounded twice by Portland and Oklahoma City.

The main culprit for this turnaround Domantas Sabonis.

While Turner grabbed 14 rebounds in the season opener, Sabonis is the one who has an actual average in double-figures. A shockingly rare accomplishment for the Pacers, who haven’t had a player finish with over ten rebounds-per-game since Troy Murphy (10.2) did it in 2009-10.

And Sabonis’ average doesn’t give him the credit he’s due. Over the last five games he hasn’t snagged less than 11 rebounds in any game. He posted a season high, 16, against the Kings. What’s better for the Pacers is that those 62 rebounds of Sabonis, while a lot, is only 28 percent of the Pacers total. He’s not the only one attacking the glass. No doubt spurned forward by Sabonis, the team is rebounding better, or at least with more consistency.

Over the previous two seasons, Indiana’s could have a great rebounding night, but they could also have a dreadful one. Again, just looking at the first seven games here: Last year Indy collectively grabbed 52 rebounds twice, but grabbed under 36 three times. It was similar the year before when the Pacers swiped 53 against Boston, but also posted a 38 game and a 34 game.

Indiana just posted their first 50+ rebound game against Sacramento, and they also haven’t really bombed one either. They only once barely dipped below 40 with 39 against Portland.

The Pacers can count on not getting crushed on the glass and, generally speaking, the more competitive you are rebounding, the more competitive you are in games overall. Furthermore, it’s easier to be competitive on the glass when you have a player you can pencil in for grabbing nearly a dozen boards every night.

This should be a trend that will continue when Turner returns from his concussion. The difference is that Indiana will then have an improving rebounder as a starter (Turner) and in the second unit (Sabonis), and sometimes both. It should be rare for Indy to have a five-man unit on the floor without somebody who can clear the glass. Not every team can say that.

Project? What Project?

Back when Domas Sabonis was seen as a throw-in (and not a particularly good throw in) during the Paul George trade, Sabonis was a 6/4 player, while barely shooting 40-percent with a slightly less than average defensive rating (108) and an atrocious offensive rating (93). To put it lightly, he was a project.

This isn’t groundbreaking research or anything, but most Centers who are going to be worth anything will show some improvement during their Sophomore seasons. I took six centers, Indiana’s last two (Turner and Roy Hibbert) and four other promising youngsters (Steven Adams, Karl Anthony-Towns, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic) and compared how they improved from their rookie to sophomore seasons.

So, if that’s the average developmental curve, then Sabonis is incinerating said developmental curve.

The transformation of Sabonis is the embodiment of something we also talked about in July when you need to reboot the franchise you don’t have to bottom out, you can also find young players that have potential and only need a chance. In other words: Oladipo and Sabonis.

The exuberance that those two have taken to their opportunity in Indy significantly speeds up the franchise’s reboot.

Indiana does still have its share of projects.

There’s the obviously promising project in T.J. Leaf who will only get better with age (the guy’s 20) and strength. And there’s the mystery prospect in Ike Anigbogu, who needs to play himself onto the court. He’s played 12 whole minutes.

Good news, Indiana can afford to not force the two Bruins into uncomfortable roles. Leaf can learn the game as the team’s last rotation piece, and Anigbogu (who’s the youngest player in the league) can learn behind a pair of stellar 21 year-olds (Turner and Sabonis) and a grizzled vet in Al Jefferson.

The Pacers will be better in the long run for it. And it’s all possible because

Sabonis is far, far, far away from being a project. He’s in the top third in the NBA (among center’s) in both offense and defense. In other words, he looks more like a building block than a block in need of construction.

So start him and trade Thad Young, right?

Wrong.

Domas Sabonis’ emergence puts the Pacers in a great spot, but making overzealous roster changes because of it — like trading away Thaddeus Young — would be a mistake. The biggest reason has nothing to do with Sabonis.

Any decision on moving Young should be based on Leaf and Glenn Robinson III’s development, not Domas’. It’s nothing against Sabonis the NBA has just moved against lineups with two primary post players.

Look at New Orleans, an argument can be made that they have the two of the best post players in the league on their team, and they’ve lost 18 of 32 with them. Now you need one post player and a bigger pseudo-wing who can rebound. In the ’90s we called them small forwards, but whatever, c’est la vie.

So while having the option of playing Sabonis and Turner together is excellent and flexible, having to do so out of necessity is not.

Which is where Leaf and Robinson come in.

Leaf is the natural replacement for Young. He’s got range, size and he knows what he’s doing with the basketball. Seeing how Leaf progresses this season will be key to figure out what to do with Young if he opts out. It would probably be smarter to keep Young around for a while and not rush Leaf, but Leaf’s play will determine that.

Another variable is Robinson. Playing Leaf at the four and Bojan Bogdanovic at the three would be disastrous defensively. To be most successful, Leaf — and Bogdanovic — need partnered with a quicker defender allowing them to rotate off onto the slower forward.

If Robinson can recover and build on last year’s success (he posted career highs in basically everything that matters) then Indy will not only be deeper than their currently shallowest position but also have more latitude in trusting Leaf with more minutes.

In any event, Young is too valuable to move.

Next: Indiana Pacers moving out of the back of the pack

Sabonis’ emergence both makes the Pacers present and future look really bright. And with each successive wonderful performance, Pacers fans, you can sit back like Homer Simpson does after the giant Lard Lad monster destroys the entire street and ask the previous Sabonis doubters, “Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?”