There's only one basketball in an NBA game or any level of hoops, really. This is beyond obvious, of course, but it's a huge determining factor in who gets playing time in the NBA and who doesn't. It's something that players either adapt to or don't. If they don't, they can find themselves discarded after their rookie deal or sooner.
I attend a lot of high school camps as well as tournaments, and the one basketball always stands out to me. It especially stands out on the AAU circuits when there are many top-level amateurs on one team. Some players can adapt, whether it's an innate feel, intentional practicing, great guidance, or a mix of all of these.
Some players don't adapt and when they don't, it can lead to some awful play. Having great skill or phenomenal talent isn't enough alone to get playing time in the NBA. The way the game is covered, having to connect to such a gargantuan number of fans, can make it seem like that, though.
Players who get playing time learn how to help their team win possessions without being in the way. They can make a positive impact without touching the ball. This can allow for teams to develop a rhythm, and the more rhythm that is developed, the more likely it is for a team to find an identity.
For this Pacers team, these qualities could be more essential than most other teams. This is because of the cosmic force that their leader has become on the ball. This is because of Tyrese Haliburton.
The fourth-year pro from Oshkosh has evolved into one of the league's best offensive generators. He's scoring from everywhere on the court. He's not just getting teammates easier looks. He's getting them looks that otherwise wouldn't exist without his feel for tempo and rhythm. Some of these looks wouldn't exist without him on the floor, period.
Haliburton has exploded into that rare player who has an insane usage rate paired with insane efficiency. He's becoming the kind of player who makes All-NBA year in and year out. He's becoming a player that an organization genuinely believes in to build around. He's doing this almost exclusively with the one ball on the court in his hands.
This makes it all the more important for the Pacers to have high-level impact guys who don't need the ball. Enter a player who has excelled at making contributions this season without the ball. Enter a lottery pick whose marksmanship was raved about at the amateur level. Enter Aaron Nesmith.
Nesmith averaged over 20 points a game as a senior in high school and 23 points a game in his last season at Vanderbilt. It's unbelievably difficult to do that at the D1 level. It's rare that a player does it on 50/50/80 splits. Yes, 52% from distance, to be exact, and that was on eight attempts a game, too.
Some players can be a winning team's leading scorer at every level. Some can be the primary scorer in any and all situations. For Nesmith, that’s not the case but it hasn’t stopped him from developing his game.
1. Aaron Nesmith's defensive presence
Let’s start with the side of the ball that the Pacers have struggled with the most this year: Defense. Rick Carlisle recently placed Nesmith in the starting lineup because he’s looking for any defensive help he can find. Nesmith has provided that help when he’s on the court.
Other than being a tad small for the modern-day wing, Nesmith brings everything a team wants on defense. He has enough length and physicality to guard bigger players on the block, but the fluidity and quickness make it difficult for guards. His length here makes an even greater impact if he’s switched onto a backcourt player.
The on-ball skill is at such a high level in today’s NBA that, a lot of times, a defense’s best option is to switch. Teams can still be hurt if the switch is a mismatch for them, but it’s not as bad as giving a shooter space, especially with today's level of jump shooting. It’s also not as detrimental as letting a great dribble-drive player build momentum downhill.
His length can bother guards and help him recover if he’s beaten. He does a consistent job of not letting that happen. He’s guarded players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard, and Trae Young as well as you can ask a player to guard those types of guys.
This is why defensive players like Nesmith have become so valuable. He can switch in any situation & more than hold his own.
He has become very skilled in off-ball situations as well. His positioning & timing have led to being a weapon in getting blocks coming from the weak side.
This clip from the PacersTalk YouTube channel has great footage of Nesmith’s defensive versatility.
2. Aaron Nesmith's three-point shooting
As a prep player and college player, Nesmith was known as a sniper of a shooter. There are players who can shoot, then there are actual shooters, and then there are players who are snipers.
Snipers are players that are off-the-charts effective from deep. They hit at such a high clip from distance that they’re in a tier by themselves.
Nesmith shot 52% from distance on eight attempts per game during his last season at Vanderbilt. Yes, that qualifies as a sniper. It was half of the season for him, but 14 games on that many attempts proved to be real.
After being a lottery pick for the Celtics, Nesmith’s sniper level took a real dip. In his two seasons with Boston, he shot 34.6% from deep. I would say that’s a level of a player who can shoot not a shooter and certainly not a sniper.
Whatever the variables were that impacted this, it led to Nesmith’s worst shooting, probably since early high school.
Since being in a Pacers uniform, he’s shooting 39.6% from distance. If you want to go more recently, he’s shooting 47.5% this season. He’s doing that on just under 4.5 attempts a game. This is the sniper-level ability that Nesmith provided before his NBA career.
Now, with Nesmith in the starting lineup, we hope to see him get up even more attempts. I don’t expect his efficiency to dip much. I believe Nesmith is a legitimate 40% shooter from deep on high volume. There’s just too much proof for me to think otherwise.
3. Aaron Nesmith passes the eye test
The eye test also proves this to me. Yes, the eye test is still the most important scouting method!
His rhythm and release have always been there. Playing with a passer the level of Haliburton should only enhance these skills. You can see how natural his shooting is in this video from Mills Productions YouTube channel during the 2020 NBA Draft
A trait that Nesmith has really shown off in an Indiana jersey is his movement off the ball. Nesmith has shown consistency in cutting, getting to a shooting spot, or creating space on the strong side.
In today’s game, players like Nesmith are needed if a team wants to win. I think they become even more important when a team has an offensive generator like Haliburton. The Pacers need to surround Haliburton with players who can have high-impact possessions without interfering with Haliburton’s play.
As we’ve mentioned here, Nesmith is a player who fulfills these needs. If his shooting continues to improve, then it will reach a level beyond fulfillment and could make the pair unguardable most nights.
I think he’s becoming a perfect fit for Haliburton in the backcourt. He’s had to play a bigger role physically with the Pacers' lack of size. If the Pacers can get bigger, then it will benefit Nesmith as well & he could be a jumbo two-guard.
Look for the Pacers to go after bigger at the wing or in the front court at some point during Haliburton's ascension.
Then look for Aaron Nesmith to continue to blossom.