Few could have predicted the Indiana Pacers' season a year ago. Sure, the end to their four-year playoff drought happened and Indiana surprisingly returned to the Eastern Conference Finals while being a sixth-seed.
This year is different. Expectations are higher than ever. The Eastern Conference has been competitive over the last several years. Three juggernauts in the Atlantic Division and two others that had a better record than the Pacers within their own Central Division.
Here are three bold predictions on how this season could go for Rick Carlisle's troops.
1. Tyrese Haliburton will not qualify for any awards
The All-Star point guard has raised his profile with his performance on the court. Last season, he averaged 20 points and 11 assists a game. In the past two years, Haliburton has averaged a double-double
He shoots about 47% from the field and has become a major leader in the locker room. The issue is not his stats when on the court. It is whether or not Haliburton can stay on the court.
Since breaking into the NBA in 2020, the former Iowa State Cyclone has only played in 70 games or more in a season just once. A lingering hamstring injury kept Haliburton on the sideline for 13 games last season.
As part of a new rule implemented in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, players must play in at least 65 games in the season to qualify for any awards. Furthermore, players must also average at least 20 minutes per game.
The Indiana Pacers are deep enough to withstand a similar blow of Haliburton missing a dozen games or so. Backup T.J. McConnell proved that.
However, if Haliburton misses more than that, he may not be eligible for honors such as Most Valuable Player regardless of his numbers on the stat sheet.
2. The Pacers starting lineup gets shaken up a bit
To be more direct, one or two of the players for Indiana will be traded. Myles Turner, who is in the final year of his current contract, could net a favorable return if moved. Turner is making just under $20 million and could command a hefty new deal.
His name has circulated in the rumor mill for years. The same went for Buddy Hield, who eventually was shipped out.
Indiana's front office has shown they are not afraid to pull the trigger on a mid-season deal. They collected Pascal Siakam this way back in February. The Pacers also received Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis in the same way, too.
This is also the last year that Andrew Nembhard is making just $2 million. His contract extension has him making $18.1, $19.5, and nearly $21 million in the next three seasons after this one, respectively.
With options being picked up on Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, and Bennedict Mathurin, the Pacers may need to move a part or two.
A return for another big man, a center, would be ideal. Turner, Nembhard, or anyone else from last year's second unit could be added in a potential swap.
3. The Pacers exit in the first round of the playoffs this season
Indiana is still one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. They now have some competition as we mentioned before.
It's possible that the Pacers are poised for another deep playoff run. However, their defensive woes have been covered up by their high-octane offense.
In the past three seasons under Carlisle, Indiana's offensive scoring has improved. That would be hard to do so a fourth year in a row.
Playoffs tend to offer a slower-paced game. The uptempo is hindered when better teams' defenses have a seven-game series to make adjustments and exploit weaknesses.
Defense wins championships and the Pacers do not have a championship-level defense. They have been in the bottom seven for the past four years in points allowed per game.
If the team can't commit to limiting their opponent's production on the court, it doesn't matter how many wins or points the Pacers put up. Without stops, they could find themselves with four losses in the first round like the Milwaukee Bucks did last season and be sent home early.