The Indiana Pacers are eager to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, but their ambitions are higher. They have not won a postseason series since reaching the conference finals in 2014. Tyrese Haliburton made his first All-Star team in 2023, but the 23-year-old is just getting started. The Pacers have a young roster and improvements are key to leaping up the standings.
ESPN had Indiana finishing ninth in the Eastern Conference (subscription required) and making the Play-In Tournament, but their aim is to finish in the top six and grab an automatic playoff berth.
It will take a few surprising performances from their young talent, but multiple players could make a jump. Rick Carlisle is a proven-winner, who helped the Pacers make a ten-win improvement last season. Haliburton plans on riding his Team USA stint into a massive year, and Indiana is hoping to see multiple breakout seasons from their roster.
Indiana Pacers that could shock the world this season
5. Obi Toppin
Toppin was the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft by the Knicks, but he struggled to get minutes in New York. Toppin was behind Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett, and head coach Tom Thibodeau is known for playing his starters massive minutes. Still, the 25-year-old showed flashes and requested a trade to get more burn.
The 6’9 forward is an elite athlete who showcased an improved jumper last season. If his shooting can take another step forward, Toppin could have a massive campaign. The Pacers gave up two second-round draft picks to acquire the 25-year-old as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, but he could be a hot commodity in restricted free agency next summer if he breaks out.
Expectations are low for Obi Toppin after his disappointments in New York, but he will shock the world this season by becoming a starter and key contributor for the Indiana Pacers as they return to the playoffs.
4. Bruce Brown
Brown broke out last season as the 6’4 guard helped the Nuggets win the championship. His versatile skill set creates options. Brown can set screens, handle the ball, make plays, and defend multiple positions. The 27-year-old struggled with his jumper coming out of the University of Miami, but it is steadily improving.
The Pacers signed him to a two-year $45 million contract in free agency, which many viewed as an overpay. Brown made $15.1 million in his first five years in the NBA combined after being a second-round pick in 2018. The 6’4 guard is set to earn $22 million this season with a $23 million team option for the 2024-25 campaign.
Brown will shock the world by playing over 30 minutes per game for the first time in his career while showing off his improving playmaking and shooting. His 3-point attempts and percentage will improve as he demonstrates a versatile all-around skill set that helps the Pacers win.
His defense will be massive in Indiana. The Pacers finished 26th in defensive rating last season, despite having an elite rim-protector in Myles Turner. They needed a boost on the perimeter, and Bruce Brown will provide it. His versatility helps the Indiana Pacers be a surprise playoff team in 2024.
3. Jarace Walker
The Pacers traded back from seventh to eighth in the 2023 draft to add two second-round picks. They took Walker, who appeared to be their target at seven. The 6’8 forward fills a need at the four and offers a versatile skill set.
Despite being a top-ten pick, there is not much hype for Walker. The 19-year-old played just one college season and struggled to make shots during his four summer league games. Walker was doing too much and trying too hard to impress in Vegas.
The 6’8 forward can defend multiple positions, rebound, and make shots. There will be hiccups as with any rookie. Walker will be on the fringes of the rotation in the early going, but expect him to come on in the second half.
The 19-year-old is competing with Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, and Isaiah Jackson for minutes. There will be plenty of open opportunities, and the Pacers will need more from Walker if they plan on making the playoffs.
It is often unwise to rely on a teenage rookie for meaningful production, but Jarace Walker has an NBA-ready body and versatile skill set to speed up his learning curve. Walker will be a key rotation piece after the All-Star break and could play a meaningful role in the playoffs in year one.
2. Bennedict Mathurin
Mathurin was the sixth overall pick in the 2022 draft and immediately proved to be a force. The 20-year-old averaged 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 28.5 minutes per game. He played mostly as the Pacers’ sixth man but did see his scoring and efficiency improve significantly over the final 11 games when he moved into the starting lineup.
Indiana fans are excited about Mathurin, but can he make a gigantic leap in year two? His efficiency and playmaking are instant areas where the 6’6 wing can improve. He shot just 43.4 percent from the field and 32.3 percent from 3-point range as a rookie. Getting closer to the league averages of 47.5 percent and 36.1 percent would be massive boosts that could push Mathurin near 20 points per game.
The 6’6 wing must improve on the defensive end of the floor. He rated 210th of 250 qualified players in FiveThirtyEight’s defensive RAPTOR and had a negative defensive box score plus-minus. Mathurin has the size and athletic ability to be a plus defender, but he must lock in and hold his own to shock the world.
Can Bennedict Mathurin average 22 points per game on efficient shooting and take over as the Indiana Pacers starting shooting guard? A second year improvement won’t be surprising, but a massive leap would certainly turn heads.
1. Tyrese Haliburton
Haliburton has been outstanding since joining the Pacers in a shocking trade deadline deal in 2022. He averaged over 20 points per game while shooting 49.0 percent from the field, 40.0 percent on his threes, and 87.1 percent from the foul line. The 6’5 guard would have finished second in the NBA in assists per game, but his 56 played were not enough to qualify.
Haliburton can only shock the world by going from All-Star to superstar. The 23-year-old keeps climbing. Can he average 25 points and ten dimes per game as he pushes the Pacers to the playoffs? Does the 6’5 guard become the 12th player in NBA history with a 50-40-90 season? Those are the shocking things that Haliburton can do sooner rather than later.
Pushing the Indiana Pacers into the top six with another increase in his production will have Tyrese Haliburton in the running for All-NBA and superstar status. He is on that trajectory, but few expect him to get there this season. Being an All-NBA guard is difficult because of the competition, which will make Haliburton’s inclusion much sweeter.
Will the Indiana Pacers shock the world this season? They have a ton of young talent with room to grow. It won’t be easy but do not be surprised to see them make a massive leap.
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