NBA Draft Lottery: We ran four simulations, here’s how the Pacers did

It’s not often that a draft as talented as the current one comes around and the Pacers are in the lottery at just the right time. The Pacers find themselves with the 7th best odds in the NBA draft lottery, but many of the top talents in the draft will be gone by then. Many fans are hopeful that the Pacers can do what the Pelicans did a few years ago and jump the odds to claim the number one pick, landing them Zion Williamson.

At the very top of the draft is likely a future all-time talent in Victor Wembanyama, a prospect the likes of which the league has never seen before.

https://twitter.com/PBAinsider/status/1642590647185203200

He has a chance to be a game-breaking revolutionary player and any team that wins the lottery will absolutely draft him. No debates, end of discussion. However, there are a host of other top talents in the draft such as Brandon Miller from Alabama and Scoot Henderson from the G League. Both have the chance to be All-Star level players in the NBA if they end up in the right situation. And many with knowledge of the NBA say that Scoot is good enough to be a first overall selection in the draft most years.

Heartbreaking disappointment as the Pacers slide back to the 9th pick in the draft.

Here’s the situation nobody wants. It puts us in a position to probably not get an All-Star level player this year in the draft. While there is a chance that somebody falls (somebody always does), the chances of getting a franchise player this late in the lottery is low.

In our projections, if the Pacers were to fall back to the 9th pick overall, they would probably have to pick Gradey Dick out of Kansas. Is he a good player? Sure. Is he going to chance the trajectory of an NBA franchise? Definitely not.

He’s a long power forward that is an absolute sniper from deep, but probably not a player that you would want to lose during the season for. He’s likely to be a good rotation player in the NBA and at pick nine that’s probably all that you can hope for.

He would solve some of the Pacers problems but would really still leave a glaring hole at the power forward spot on defense, something the Pacers desperately need to fix.

In simulation number two, the Pacers clearly do the best they possibly could by being able to draft a generational talent.

I mean, this would be the absolute best outcome for the Pacers right? They could draft power forward/center Victor Wembanyama who could revolutionize the game of basketball. Of course, the Pacers only have between a six and seven percent chance of winning the lottery, meaning this outcome is VERY unlikely. But at least it’s possible right?

If you haven’t seen enough of this prospect over the course of the year, first, get out from under the rock you have been under, and then watch this highlight reel:

https://twitter.com/ActionNetworkHQ/status/1655634973561438210

He moves better with the ball than any player you’ve ever seen at his height. The only possible downside to Wembanyama could be injury concerns, but that doesn’t seem to be scary away very many NBA scouts and analysts who are talking him to be the best player in the draft since LeBron James. That’s high praise.

In simulation number three the Pacers again have a franchise changing pull as they move all the way up to number two in the NBA draft.

The Pacers are due for some good luck, especially given all of the injuries we have had over the last decade? It’s our time right? Well if our simulation have anything to say about it, the answer is definitely yes.

In the third simulation the Pacers move to two, which is a debatable pick. Some have Scoot Henderson and some have Brandon Miller. In either case, you probably aren’t really going to lose. My instinct would be the Pacers would take Brandon Miller given that he plays the position of greatest need for the Pacers right now. And his highlights from this past season are nothing to sneeze at either.

He would fit in nearly seamlessly next to the likes of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, who would be able to run the pick and roll effortlessly alongside of Brandon Miller who could stretch the floor. While unlikely to happen, this would be a major win for the Pacers if we moved up to two.

In our final simulation, the Pacers end up staying exactly where they are, which may be a blessing after all.

This would certainly be better than falling to nine, but probably not nearly as good as the previous two simulations where the Pacers jumped to one and two respectively. At seven there is a likely still some elite talent on the board, and my instinct would tell me that if this is where we fall, Cam Whitmore is probably the best on the board available.

Whitmore plays the position the Pacers need (power forward), plays solid defense, and still has a decent outside shot. He has a big build and would be able to defend the types of forwards the Pacers typically struggle with (LeBron, OG Anunoby, etc.).

Here are some Cam Whitmore highlights from this current season:

He probably doesn’t change the franchise overnight, but between either him or Jarace Walker the Pacers probably can identify the power forward of their future. Pacers fans would likely be thrilled to end up with Whitmore, even though that wouldn’t be moving up in the lottery at all.

But who knows? That’s why we draw the ping pong balls.

What more information on the draft? Or how to watch it? Here are more stories below:

• Indiana Pacers: How and when to watch the NBA Draft lottery
• NBA Draft Spotlight: If the Indiana Pacers win the NBA draft lottery
• NBA Draft: What if the Pacers move up in the lottery?
• NBA Draft: What if the Pacers drop in the lottery?

Want to run your own simulation? Try it out at tankathon.com