What Next For Indiana? Three Possible Scenarios for the Pacers’ Off-Season

Ladies and gentlemen, another season of Indiana Pacers basketball is in the books, and what a season it has been! I’m not going to lie, I was very excited for the 2022-23 season to start, and I stated multiple times on Twitter that this is my first time being excited about Indiana Pacers basketball in a long while, and I admittedly had a lot of fun watching the Pacers this year.

From old guards like Myles Turner finally breaking out to the first full season of Tyrese Haliburton running the show to spectacular rookies like Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard lighting Gainbridge Fieldhouse on fire, this season was full of ups, downs, and some downright insane moments, both on and off the court. Speaking of downs, we experienced a pretty big down yesterday when the Pacers won a meaningless game against the Knicks to move down quite a bit in the draft lottery.

While this was some pretty bad news, and reminded everyone of the old, stuck-in-their-ways Indiana Pacers that they are used to, they would be lying if they said the future was not bright in Indianapolis. For the first time in what seems like a decade, the Indiana Pacers are a fun, young team to watch in the east, and depending on how this off-season goes, their future could either set the NBA on fire, or they could continue being the familiar, middling, lukewarm at best Pacers that are seen as nothing more than a “tough out” for whatever top-seeded Eastern Conference team they match up with in the first round of the Playoffs.

Now, I’d be a lying man if I said I know what the future holds, but just like anyone that’s paid to do this stuff, I can think of a few venues the Indiana Pacers try to go through in their near future. I’ve looked a bit at the possibilities, and I’ve come up with three scenarios. These three scenarios are The Dream Scenario, The Realistic Scenario, and the Nightmare Scenario.

Please keep in mind that I am not guaranteeing that any of these scenarios will happen. For all I know, the Pacers could fold as an organization tomorrow and we’ll all be back to Square 1. It’s just fun to look at hypotheticals.

Anyways, with that introduction out of the way, let’s get to predicting!

Scenario 1: The Dream Scenario for the Indiana Pacers

This is the part where I ask everyone viewing this to please not get their hopes up, as the Indiana Pacers currently have only the 8th best lottery odds in the 2023 NBA Draft, with them being tied with the Washington Wizards. As a result, they only have a 6.7% chance of getting the number 1 pick and only a 7% chance of getting the number 2 pick. However, I would be lying if I said that more improbably things have not happened. For example, the Chicago Bulls only had a 1.7% chance of getting the top pick in the 2008 NBA Draft and landing hometown hero Derrick Rose.

With that being said if the Pacers somehow do the impossible and jump 6 or 7 spots in the lottery and land the superhuman known as Victor Wembanyama or perhaps Scoot Henderson with the first or second pick in the draft, we can probably just call it quits right there, as any team that lands Victor or Scoot is almost guaranteed to be a contending team in the near future, barring setback due to injury, and even though Victor has had problems with his knees in the past, you simply cannot excuse passing up on a talent like his, especially when you are a lottery team and you need all the talent you can get.

If Victor Wembanyama somehow lands on Indiana’s lap, this would be one of the greatest moments in Pacers history, assuming he pans out, as his skill set is not something you add as a complimentary piece to your team, but rather as someone you build your team’s skill set around. It is 100% NOT hyperbole to say he is one of the most unique and intriguing prospects of all time, and he is most certainly worth the hype. If you are on social media or even just a casual basketball watcher, there is a more likely than not chance that you have seen one of Wembanyama’s highlight reel-worthy plays. From dribbling down the court in about 3 steps to draining stepback threes as if they were layups, this guy is all worth the hype and if he stays healthy, he will not disappoint.

Scoot Henderson on the other hand, while he may not have gotten as much media coverage as Wembanyama, is certainly another amazing prospect coming out of the G League Ignite team. As has been said before, this is the first time we have gotten 2 generational prospects in the same draft class, which ultimately makes Indiana’s pointless win over New York sting a bit more in hindsight. That being said, more insane things have happened before, and we all just need to hope and pray that the ping-pong balls somehow fall in our favor.

Also keep in mind that I have not even mentioned guys like Brandon Miller, the Thompson Twins, Jarace Walker, and then some because if I did mention everyone, we would be here all day and I still have 2 more scenarios to talk about.

Scenario 2: The Realistic Scenario for the Pacers

This is the part where we climb back down to earth a bit. Apologies for getting your hopes up initially, but we all have to be optimistic.

With yesterday’s game against the Knicks in the books, the Pacers currently sit with the 8th best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery, and according to Tankathon, have a 32.9% chance at getting the 8th pick in the draft and a 31.1% chance at getting the 9th pick in the draft. This is a surprising step down from the previous year’s lottery, where Indiana was looking at around the 7th pick but moved up a bit to the 5th pick to select Bennedict Mathurin (Note that the coin flip to decide who has better odds between the Pacers and the Spurs has not happened yet).

I am expecting something similar to happen this year, as the talent around the 8th pick is still pretty intriguing, as you have guys like Cam Whitmore (pictured), Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, and maybe even Jarace Walker. Now while none of these guys possess the insane measurables of Victor Wembanyama or the raw talent of Scoot Henderson, it would be a crime to completely negate these players and write them off as just consolation prizes. After all, a lot of people did that for Bennedict Mathurin and he turned out alright, didn’t he?

Keep in mind that the 2023 NBA draft is one of the deepest drafts in a while, and any one of these players would be a great addition to the current Pacers roster. While they might not be guys you could build your team around, they will certainly add to the core and boost a future playoff run and get Indiana some attention for the first time in a while.

Cam Whitmore is probably the most interesting guy among these players to me, which is why he is pictured above. Standing at 6’7″ and weighing about 230 pounds with a 7’0″ wingspan, Whitmore would be perfect to slide right next to Myles Turner at the 4, with his explosiveness and energy fitting very nicely with Myles’ skill set in the frontcourt. Whitmore will also still be 18 years old on Draft Day 2023, which would make him an uncharacteristic young pick for the Pacers and a fresh face in an already very young core.

Whitmore however, is not the be-all and end-all for the Pacers, as guys like Hendricks, Black, and Walker would also be fine picks. Combine these picks with the Pacers making smart moves to keep their roster young and fresh in the off-season and throughout the 2023-24 season, and you might just have a future contender in the works!

Scenario 3: The Nightmare Scenario for Indiana

And this is the part where I take you, the reader’s heart out of your chest and stomp it into a million pieces. I apologize in advance for what I’m about to make you read.

Firstly, I have to preface this by saying that I don’t hate Gradey Dick at all. As a matter of fact, I think he’s a fine player and he’ll be a great addition to any NBA team. What I do have a problem with, is Indiana taking him with the potential 8th pick of the draft and passing up on some potentially better prospects. Do I think Gradey Dick is a good player? Absolutely. Do I think he’s lottery worthy? Probably, yeah. But 8th pick worthy with guys like Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, and Taylor Hendricks potentially left on the board? Absolutely not. If we somehow fall to around the 11th or 12th pick in the draft, then I’d be fine with us taking Dick, as he’d probably be the best player available at that point, but not with the 8th or 9th pick, which is the pick we are expected to land.

Another thing that would make this a nightmare scenario is Indiana trying to spend big on okay-ish free agents, a la Torrey Craig in 2021. I think Craig is a fine player and was kind of excited when we picked him up, but I soon realized he didn’t fit with our team at all, and I was very glad when we traded him back to Phoenix for Jalen Smith, who I will potentially talk about in a future piece. Indiana as it stands, has a lot of cap space and used some of that to re-sign Myles Turner to an extension. The Pacers know that Indiana is not a tantalizing free-agent destination like New York or Miami and they would end up having to offer worse players more money to get a chance at signing them, although hopefully, Tyrese Haliburton can change those fortunes soon.

I’m going to keep this part short because there really isn’t a whole lot that Indiana can do to mess up what they currently have going with their team, and with 4 picks in the top 31 of the draft, they are pretty well set for the future, barring the Pacers injury bug striking again.

What To Expect for the Indiana Pacers?

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t optimistic about this team’s future. I try to be optimistic about a lot of things, for example, I thought Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis were good additions to the team back in 2014 and 2015. However, It’s hard to not be happy about what the Pacers have done with their roster in the past year or so.

At the end of the 2020-21 season, the Pacers were fully into their spot as a somewhat reliable Eastern Conference team that just missed the playoffs but were probably going to be a 6-8th seed going forward. Fast forward 2 years later and they not only have 2 young stars to lead them into the future, but a good young core and 4 top-31 picks in one of the deepest draft classes in recent memory. I don’t want to be too optimistic here, but I think Pacers fans should keep their heads up and watch out for what’s to come because you might just be surprised.

Or, the Pacers could prove me completely wrong and be a perennial 6-9th seed for the next 20 or so years. Either one works!