Bennedict Mathurin is having an excellent rookie season for the Indiana Pacers. While the expectations for his debut year as a pro baller certainly weren’t low- he was taken 6th overall by the Pacers in last year’s NBA draft- Mathurin’s early season performances have shattered even the most optimistic predictions a Pacers fan could’ve made. Mathurin came into the league confident that his abilities stack up to even the best players in the game, and through 29 games, it’s easy to see that his confidence is well-founded.
Even though Mathurin, as a rookie, has been playing like a bonafide star and is among the favorites to win 6th man of the year, he currently isn’t the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (ROY). Three major sportsbooks still have last year’s 1st overall pick, Paulo Banchero as the favorite to win the award.
Both rookies are playing excellently through the first part of the NBA season. Each player has a specific role their team asks them to play, and both players are executing that role well. Although Banchero looks headed toward an accolade-filled first season, there’s reason to believe that in the race for ROY, Bennedict Mathurin isn’t far behind the Magic forward, and he may just be leading it after all.
The case for Banchero
Through 22 games play this season, Paulo Banchero’s per-game stats are impressive. In just south of 35 minutes per game, he’s scoring 21.7 points, grabbing 6.9 rebounds, and dishing 3.9 assists. That per-game points total ranks first among rookies in the league and is a big reason why he currently has the best odds for ROY. Banchero does have more opportunities to go get those points. He has 6 more minutes per game to score the 4 points more than Mathurin currently is, but more importantly, Banchero leads his team, the Magic, in usage% (usg%)- An estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor. His role as the offensive lead dog on a Magic team that’s currently 9-20, the third-worst record in the East.
Banchero’s not only using his abundance of opportunities to put up gaudy scoring numbers, but he also does excellent work for his team. He pulls down the third most rebounds on his team and throws the fourth most assists. Compared to all other rookies, he’s third in rebounds per game and assists per game. That’s not a typo. Banchero is a 6′-10″ power forward who’s running the show in Orlando and delivering stats that are better than most rookies in multiple categories.
Compared directly to Mathurin, Banchero is averaging more blocks, steals, free throw attempts, and made field goals. He’s also shooting a slightly better percentage from the field. Banchero’s 1.3 win shares are second in the league, behind only Walker Kessler’s 2.0. All-in-all, Banchero’s case for winning ROY is very strong.
Is it as strong as Bennedict Mathurin’s?
The case for Mathurin
Through 29 games played this season, Bennedict Mathurin is averaging 17.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in just 29 minutes per game. Those numbers fall just slightly behind Banchero’s season averages, but they come from a much more restricted role. While he also leads his team in usg%., Mathurin’s 25.5 usg% is almost 3 percentage points lower than Banchero’s 28.1.
If we take a look at the two players on a per 36-minute basis, their statistical profiles smooth out closer to even. Both players average about 22 points per 36, and while Banchero still averages more assists and rebounds per 36 than Mathurin, he also turns the ball over more and only grabs the same number of offensive rebounds. Still, Banchero’s advanced numbers outshine Mathurin’s. His rebound percentage, assist percentage, and free throw attempt rate all surpass Bennedict’s.
The one area that really stands out in the case for Mathurin over Banchero is efficiency. Mathurin’s efficient field goal % (.492), free throw % (.806), and true shooting % (.559) are all higher than Banchero’s, despite having already taken 42 more shots on the season.
The verdict
Paulo Banchero and Bennedict Mathurin both have incredibly impressive statistical profiles for rookies. They both play important roles for their teams, and they both still have room to improve. We should expect to see these players dominating the Eastern Conference for years to come, and we should enjoy every moment of that. That being said, who’s better? Who will win this year’s ROY award?
The answer, of course, is Bennedict Mathurin! Not because he’s statistically dominant, or because he’ll grow into even more impressive numbers with more playing time, and not even because he’s a more efficient player. The reason he’s better, and will win the ROY award, in my eyes, is because he’s an Indiana Pacer, and as Pacers fans, we emulate our collective Hoosier grandmothers in believing that our grandchild, or in this case, a 20-year-old professional athlete, is perfect and so much better than any other on the face of the planet.
After all, what’s more natural in NBA fandom than passionate, unreasonable, unchangeable player arguments?