Jalen Smith was one of many new faces for the Indiana Pacers after the 2021-22 trade deadline, and he made quite the first impression. Despite being the 10th overall pick in 2020, the Suns made it clear that Smith was not a part of their future. After becoming just the sixth player ever to have his third-year rookie option declined, Smith played just 13.0 minutes in only half of the Phoneix Suns games before being traded to Indiana.
The Pacers were more than happy to send out Torrey Craig and take on Smith’s expiring contract, but Smith came in and proved to be far more than a salary filler. He played in all but four of the Pacers last 27 games, and averaged 13.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.4 three pointers and a block with shooting splits of 53/37/76 in just 24.7 minutes per game. Those are pretty darn good numbers for a guy that was given up on before his second year even started!
Jalen Smith’s contract situation does not favor the Indiana Pacers brass
Unfortunately for the Indiana Pacers, the question of whether to keep him or not doesn’t really fall in their hands. The excerpt from the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) is Section 6(m)(4), which you’ll find below, or you can skip the legal-ese and I’ll explain what it’s saying after:
"If a player is a Veteran Free Agent following the second or third Season of his Rookie Scale Contract (where the first Option Year or second Option Year (as applicable) to extend such Contract was not exercised), then any new Player Contract between the player and the Team that signed him to his Rookie Scale Contract (and/or, if such Contract was subsequently assigned, any such assignee Team) may provide for Regular Salary, Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses in the first Salary Cap Year of up to the Regular Salary, Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses, respectively, that the player would have received for such Salary Cap Year had his first or second Option Year (as applicable) been exercised."
If you read all that, you can take a second to uncross your eyes and relax your brain like I had to.
All good? Let’s continue.
Basically what this means is that if a team declines a player’s Rookie Contract Option, then any new contract from the team that he’s on when free agency arrives can only sign him for what he would have gotten had his option been picked up.
Even though the Suns were the team that declined the option, the Pacers are now the team only being able to offer the unrestricted free agent a contract worth $4.67million in the first year and $5.95million in his second. Compared to other free agents that have signed recently that are around Smith’s age and production level, that could prove to be quite a bit below market value.
Jalen Smith could be worth almost double what the Indiana Pacers can offer
Let’s look at some recent contracts that might set the bar for Smith’s negotiations.
Last year, the San Antonio Spurs signed 24-year-old PF/C Zach Collins to a contract that totaled 3 years and $22.1million. Because Collins played only 11 games in 2019-20 and missed the entire 2020-21 season with an ankle injury, the second and third years weren’t fully guaranteed, but the first year was guaranteed at $7million.
The 11 games leading up to his injury and subsequent free agency were the best of Collins’ career, and he averaged 7.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 0.6 threes and 0.5 blocks with shooting splits of 47/37/75 in 26.4 minutes. That’s less points, rebounds, blocks and three pointers on worse shooting from the field than what Smith did despite playing slightly more minutes. Not to mention Collins did that for half as many games before getting injured and not playing for almost two years leading up to signing that contract.
Dario Saric is another example of a similar player with worse production but a much bigger sample of playing than either Collins or Smith, and the 26-year-old got a three-year deal worth $27million in 2020. One or two examples don’t make a case, and past deals don’t always drive future ones, so let’s look at a different example of what sort of production Smith was putting out.
After the All-Star break there were only 18 players in the NBA that were averaging 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 35% from three on three attempts in over 22.0 minutes per game. Some of the PF/C’s on that list were Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, Christian Wood, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis and Kevin Love. (Shoutout Oshae Brissett for also making the list!)
Expand that criteria over an entire season brings John Collins into the mix. That set of stats may sound like nitpicking, and maybe it is, but it shows just how valuable Smith’s skillset is in the NBA. Every single one of the players listed besides Brissett makes more than $10 million a year, and Smith is the youngest of the group.
Jalen Smith’s small sample size may be the deciding factor that favors the Indiana Pacers
Smith having only 22 games of this level of production may be what allows him to stay with the Indiana Pacers, but there are plenty of examples that show teams aren’t always scared off. Betting on that small sample size is all about balancing whether the production was a fluke versus getting the player under contract before he has a larger sample size to negotiate with. There’s a lot of reason to take a $5-7million gamble on what we saw to close the year from a 23-year-old that’s played only 78 games through two years, and that would be enough to outbid the Pacers.
There’s a chance that Smith values what the Pacers did for him by playing him as much as they did, and maybe he wants to return to the team to continue showcasing what he can do. The only way that happens is if the lack of cap space and small sample size keeps Smith at the bottom of the free agent priority list across the league and the Pacers make room in the rotation for him. With Myles Turner, Isaiah Jackson, Goga Bitadze and Oshae Brissett, the frountcourt can be quite crowded without even knowing what might come of the Pacer’s draft night.
In a way, it’s nice that Smith has the chance to go where he wants to go after being tossed aside so early in his career. It may be frustrating for the Pacers to potentially be helpless in retaining a player they traded for, but there may still be a chance. It all comes down to what the 23-year-old values, and how the NBA values him.