The Indiana Pacers are guaranteed to select a prospect with a single-digit pick in the upcoming NBA Draft for the first time since 1989 when the team nabbed George McCloud with the seventh overall pick. Touting the fifth-best odds at the top prize, the Pacers could be the ones jumping for joy in the Draft lottery two weeks later.
However, the lottery is still an aleatory thing. While Indiana has a 42.1 percent chance to bag a top-four pick, it could fall to as low as ninth after the ping-pong balls dictate the order of the draft. In fact, the Pacers have a 19.6 percent chance to pick sixth, 26.7 percent chance to pick seventh, 8.7 percent chance to pick eighth, and a slim 0.6 percent chance to end up with the ninth pick.
Much of the discussion around here about the NBA Draft has been tackled under the premise of the Pacers bagging a good pick. Should the worst-case scenario happen though, how should the team maneuver in the draft?
1. The Indiana Pacers could look to trade up to get a slightly higher pick
The top five in most mock drafts and big boards have largely remained the same. Thus, it could be assumed that teams which secure a top-five selection would be very content keeping their respective selections.
However, should the Pacers land, say, the eighth or ninth pick, they could look into trading up, at least on the margins, using their own pick and some sweetener, like a dispensable piece, to move up a pick or two and acquire a player who presents a better fit, allowing them to kill two birds with one stone.
Fortunately, Indiana has some valuable assets that they could attach to entice teams to trade down for them, such as veterans like TJ McConnell, Buddy Hield, and Malcolm Brogdon, though parting with the latter two in a move-up package should only come if the other team offers an immediate contributor as well in return, in addition to the pick.
2. The Indiana Pacers could retain their pick and emphasize fit over upside
The Indiana Pacers can also decide that they are satisfied with a lower pick than anticipated and simply stand pat. While the 2022 NBA Draft is a bit top-heavy, with prospects wavering in forecasts outside the top five, the talent pool left for other lottery teams is as wide as it is varied.
In this case, however, the Pacers should emphasize fit over upside. This strategy is usually frowned upon by most in the draft, as going for upside is the normal thing to do for re-pivoting teams, but this is Indiana. A hard rebuild is already out of the woods. With a clear intent to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible, the Pacers should double down on this part and select someone who can immediately contribute and fill the need.
The frontcourt positions are all points of concern for the Pacers heading to the offseason. Thus, should their draft order fall flat, Indiana could select a frontcourt piece instead of a guard, even if the upside is a tad higher. Think of AJ Griffin or Tari Eason, two prospects who could instantly impact the team.
3. The Indiana Pacers could play the good guy role and trade down instead
Conversely, if the Indiana Pacers get an inferior pick, they could choose to be the sellers and be receptive to teams aiming to trade up. While they should not go all-in on this route, it could very viable and practical maneuver to take if teams are willing to part with multiple assets to move a spot or two.
One particular team that they could zoom in as a partner in this case is the San Antonio Spurs, which own three first-round selections in the draft. If the Spurs end up with the ninth pick, their projected spot, they could already be out of the running for a frontcourt piece, which is easily their biggest need. Moving up to seventh, however, could give them a chance at Griffin or Eason.
The reason why the Pacers could consider doing this is because there is little differentiation on the level of talent in the remaining crop of prospects in the lottery zone. Thus, Indiana can afford to move down a bit if that means that they can still get a valuable pick (or two) and/or a young player who can contribute next season.