Safe to say, the 2021 calendar year has not been particularly good for the Indiana Pacers. While the same can be said for all 30 teams—or really, the entire…planet—the Blue and Gold has arguably trekked a rockier road than most as they navigated through injuries, off-court mishaps, coaching changes, and non-successes.
As the calendar flips over to the following year, the Pacers should be chalked in to undergo some changes, perhaps philosophy-wise and basketball-wise. As they once again fail to gain much traction in the league, standing idle will get them nowhere, and will undoubtedly continue to irk the already-frustrated fanbase.
With all these into account, here are five bold predictions for 2022.
1. The Indiana Pacers retool after missing the playoffs; axe Domantas Sabonis AND Caris LeVert
Okay, listen. There are layers as to why Indiana can still viably make the playoffs in the tight-knit East despite their current record, but that would equate to hoping that the other teams trip themselves harder than the Pacers have. Frankly, I don’t see it coming. Unless they can pull off a double-digit win streak—a near-impossible task for a club maxed out at three consecutive wins so far—I’d bet my money on the team missing the playoffs for the second season in a row.
As a follow-up, I predict that the front office trades both Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert, kicking off a substantial retooling for a franchise in urgent need of some semblance of clarity. Both players are arguably the Pacers’ best trade assets in terms of netting great value in return (alongside Myles Turner), but they get the nod here because doing the relatively expected (e.g. trading Myles, everyone’s favorite person to blame) is not as bold of a prediction, right?
2. TJ Warren re-signs with the Indiana Pacers… in an ugly overpay
TJ Warren, who failed to play a game in the entire 2021 calendar year, including all contests this season so far, remains one of the biggest mysteries for the Indiana Pacers, if only because it’s difficult to gauge his value for the franchise as he enters free agency.
However, with both sides seemingly committed to each other, I expect the verdict on Warren to arrive more seamlessly than expected. It wouldn’t even surprise me if the Pacers immediately mount a lofty offer to shrug off interested clubs right from the start, though it would surely prompt them to overpay for the forward’s services.
The threshold for an overpay, in Warren’s case, is hard to project in quantifiable terms, but given Indiana’s misgivings on either a youth movement or a retooling, it will be hard to blame them for trying to keep an asset like Warren, who should easily attract suitors prospectively, even if it means paying him above his market value.
3. Chris Duarte becomes a 20-point per game scorer in Year 2
Indiana Pacers rookie Chris Duarte has been one of the few bright spots for the team this season. Even in a streamlined role on offense, the 24-year-old has not failed to turn heads, showing flashes of flashy shot creation, secondary playmaking, and good perimeter defense that should easily make him a shoo-in for the franchise’s long-term plans.
With LeVert and Sabonis out of the frame (as predicted here), Duarte will have all the room in the world to go full throttle as a scorer. As the team starts handing him the keys to spearhead the scoring attack, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up leading the team in scoring for the bulk of 2022.
Heck, this may not even be that bold of a prediction. Duarte already has the tools to be a nightly scoring leader if he was a featured option. Giving him more leeway to showcase what he can do with the rock will only push that agenda further. If Duarte ends up being a 20-point scorer next season and vetoes the proverbial sophomore slump, pencil him in as my favorite to nab the Most Improved Player award in the following campaign.
4. Malcolm Brogdon remains with the Indiana Pacers, but not TJ McConnell
Malcolm Brogdon has already reiterated his preference to stay in Indianapolis even if the franchise opts to rebuild. While his tenure with the Indiana Pacers is ensured this season on the heels of his recent extension, I do not expect him to end up elsewhere next year, especially being the team’s de facto leader on and off the court.
On the other hand, I can see TJ McConnell being traded to a team that has a more viable competitive window than the Pacers. While his current injury, which could sideline him for the rest of the season, could throw some buyers off, his game is predicated on his cerebral bits and on-court awareness, not on sheer physique.
TJM is widely known as one of the best backup point guards in basketball. While his contract situation is not as appetizing as his sizzling play as a playmaker and disruptor, the Pacers should have no shortage of suitors for the sneaky floor general.
5. The Indiana Pacers make a front office reset to save the ownership’s face
Ask any Pacers fan about the franchise’s biggest problem and I assure you—even if I’m writing this from a different continent—that the ownership will take the top spot.
Simply put, the franchise is stifled by a stranglehold of their own doing. One word that I’ve often used to describe the team is that it is fangless across the board. They do not want to rebuild, yet they fail to acknowledge the glaring roster problems that simply make up the bulk of the team’s limited ceiling and high floor.
If you’re an iconoclast seeking to break up the time-revered, however, I have bad news for you—Herb Simon and company are not going anywhere. They’ve held down the mantle since the 1980s as the longest tenured ownership in the association. That’s why to save face, I expect a front office reset to come sooner than later.
That could mean axing president Kevin Pritchard, or showing general manager Chad Buchanan the way out, but one thing’s for sure—the door to a philosophy change for the franchise will first lead to the realm of a front office shakeup instead of the more encompassing ownership variant.