With the Indiana Pacers missing the postseason for the first time since the 2014-15 season, the upcoming offseason is sure to bring a plethora of changes, though no one seems to know what changes are coming.
While most of the major pieces of the roster are under contract next season, there are a few expiring contracts that will be leaving Indiana’s books and they will have a decision to make with each one.
What will the Indiana Pacers do with their free agents?
Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell, Edmond Sumner, JaKarr Sampson, Amida Brimah, and Cassius Stanley all are potential free agents this offseason, but not all are likely to become unrestricted.
For this exercise, we’ll assume Sumner’s team option is picked up by the team, Brimah isn’t retained and Stanley is brought back on another two-way deal. That leaves Doug McDermott, T.J. McConnell, and JaKarr Sampson as the pieces that will have the most uncertainty.
Indiana Pacers impending free agent: Doug McDermott
McDermott will be expensive and for a team that’s already over the salary cap, retaining him would put a dent in Indiana’s wiggle room outside of the Mid-Level Exception (MLE). The Pacers were roughly $3 million under the luxury tax in 2020-21 and historically have been a team that avoids the luxury tax. While the cap and luxury tax threshold are projected to rise up a bit in the 2021-22 season, re-signing McDermott in a vacuum will likely push Indiana over the tax threshold.
For a team that missed the playoffs and has major question-marks surrounding both their coaching and roster right now, that would be a difficult pill to swallow.
McDermott had a strong season in 2020-21 and has proven he’s a strong force for a bench unit and can start in a pinch. His ability to shoot a strong percentage from distance while also being one of the deadliest cutters in the NBA should allow him to be extremely malleable across systems, which means he’ll have suitors.
Next year will be McDermott’s age 30 season. I’d anticipate the low-side of his offers to be in the non-taxpayer MLE range (a little less than $10M) for 2-3 years, while the high-side could reach the $15M a year over 3 seasons.
I think the Indiana Pacers will worry about losing the asset and clears enough space to sign him. How they clear that space? That’s another question. Letting a solid rotational wing walk for a team that is already wing-deficient would spell major change incoming.
Indiana Pacers impending free agent: T.J. McConnell
McConnell, much like McDermott, was a vital member of the Indiana Pacers’ bench this season and cobbled together some impressive underlying metrics, including the highest win shares-mark of his career and strong on/off numbers. The team was 4.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
However, the most important statistics were his three-point numbers. While not shooting them in a high quantity (0.7 per game) or at a high percentage (31.3%) McConnell added a bit of a corner three-pointer to his game as the season finished. After taking only seven three-pointers in the first two months of the season, he took a combined 41 over the final four months. Not a big number, but a number that is essentially one attempt per game.
The fear around McConnell is his hesitance to shoot perimeter jumpers. It’s what allowed him to sign for relatively cheap with Indiana in the first place. The rest of this game is nearly ideal for a sixth man. He’s an energetic point-of-attack defender that is adept at creating opportunities for both himself and others, as well as pushing the tempo. The fear with him is that when he’s not dominating the ball, he gets ignored by the opposing defense.
While this is still mostly true, the semblance of a developing corner three-point shot and the value that McConnell brought to the Pacers this year means more teams will be willing to look past his issues.
Indiana may be enticed to bring him back, but they’re strong at guard and will have an even more difficult time fitting McConnell into their cap sheet if McDermott re-signs. Running back the same team in its entirety and taking minutes from younger, developing guards like Sumner doesn’t feel like the smartest decision.
My prediction is that McConnell signs a two-year deal worth upwards of $20 million over the span of the contract with another team.
Indiana Pacers impending free agent: JaKarr Sampson
The 28-year-old Sampson has spent his last two seasons with the Indiana Pacers after bouncing around the league his first six years. He’s been a decent 11th or 12th man for Indy, providing size and energy off the bench, even filling minutes at center a few different times due to injuries.
While Sampson has been a solid contributor when given minutes in Indiana, without a consistent jump shot it’s hard to warrant playing time for him over other options. I was a bit surprised when Indiana decided to bring him back for this season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets late in the 2021 offseason and Sampson is brought back again on a minimum contract.
However, I’d be willing to bet that Sampson does not play next season in a Pacers’ uniform. The addition of Oshae Brisset, who should play most of his minutes as a backup 4 next season, as well as the solid and somewhat encouraging play of Goga Bitadze this season means that Sampson likely doesn’t have a place on the roster. Though if it gets to the end of the offseason and Indiana has yet to pick up a fifth “big” or even a sixth, it could open the door for a return.
My prediction is that he signs a minimum contract somewhere else. Sampson would likely be suitable in a more consistent role and it just takes one team to open that up for him.