Expectations were high for the Indiana Pacers following last season’s impressive 45-28 finish, which was good for fourth in the Eastern Conference. Despite missing key players to injuries, the Blue and Gold made waves in the regular season and were considered as the dark horse in the East.
With a healthy squad entering the campaign, the Pacers got off to a fast 6-2 start. However, a season-ending injury to TJ Warren, alongside elongated absences from Caris LeVert and Myles Turner, have pushed the team beneath the East pecking order. From a postseason lock, Indiana is currently just a play-in contender at 9th in the conference standings.
Be that as it may, Nate Bjorkgren’s squad is certainly better than what their record suggests. With a young All-Star in Domantas Sabonis, defensive phenom Myles Turner, fringe All-Stars in Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and TJ Warren, alongside a deep bench and a modern offense and defense, the Indiana Pacers have what it takes to crash the competition and pose a threat against the likes of the Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks in theory. Health has simply been elusive for this franchise for far too long.
In the NBA however, health often needs a waiting game and a dash of luck. If the Indiana Pacers miss the postseason this year, the front office may not settle anymore on waiting for the stars to finally align. As a result, here are 3 possible fallouts if the team does not qualify for the playoffs in the much-improved East.
Significant Roster Retooling may come for the Indiana Pacers
The five-man core of the Pacers is a potent one in theory. Problem is, all of them have their own history of exhaustive injury records. If the Blue and Gold misses the postseason for only the second time in eleven years, the front office may try to hold a fire sale, not labeling anyone as untouchable and giving in to the best offer possible. We have seen that this season with the Orlando Magic who have traded away Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Fournier.
However, history tells us that Indiana is not a franchise that will opt to tank and completely rebuild. Remember the Paul George exit that did not yield a franchise reset? The most realistic expectation for the front office here is that they will attempt to retool, instead of a massive overhaul.
If they indeed project to liquidate their key players, there will be league-wide interest. The most frequent name mentioned in trading blocks is shot blocking artist Myles Turner, who would have been a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year if the Pacers have a better record and he is not sidelined indefinitely because of another injury. However, Indiana would be wise to demand a hefty return for the defensive menace.
Though quite iffy, trading Domantas Sabonis should remain an option for the team if they want to break up their one-two punch in the frontcourt. Though the two-time All-Star is recording an extraordinary 20/11/6 line, the numbers with Myles Turner on the court have been far better than with him on the hardwood, primarily due to his defensive limitations. It is not ideal to deal a 24-year-old who still has tremendous upside but putting him on the block will easily yield the maximum return, especially with his contract being one of the league’s best bargains.
The same can be said for Brogdon, LeVert and Warren, who should not be considered as untouchables. Each of them has All-Star skills and will similarly demand a great return in the market. Brogdon is an efficient 1-2 guard who avoids mistakes, facilitate, score in bunches, and defend. LeVert is an athletic volume scorer who thrives in pace and space. The same goes for Warren who raised eyebrows in last year’s bubble and is capable of erupting for 30 at any given night.
The Indiana Pacers Will Get Aggressive in the Draft
If the Indiana Pacers fail to net quality returns for the players whom they are willing to deal in the trading block, the front office may try to get creative and leverage their present to build for the future while remaining competitive by being aggressive on draft day.
It is no secret that the upcoming 2021 NBA Draft figures to be one of the deepest ones in recent years. From the likes of Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga, the talent in the looming draft will prompt teams to deal more actively than before.
There are no guarantees in the NBA draft, but given the Indiana Pacers’ failure to get over the hump in the past six years, they may be better off taking a bet on one of these prized prospects, even if it means giving up multiple key cogs in return.
However, even if the Pacers fail to qualify for the playoffs, they will only be picking in the late lottery. If they are gunning for a better draft acquisition, they would have to part with a key player and their own selection in order to trade up. But even that may not suffice. In reality, Indiana does not have a player who can easily move the needle to get a top three pick in return, especially with the loads of promise shown by the draft prospects.
One team to monitor however, is the Minnesota Timberwolves, though the lottery needs to be good to them and end up in the top three for them to keep their pick and avoid losing it to Golden State (via the D’Angelo Russell trade last season). While still a bottom-dweller in the league, the T-Wolves figure to be buyers in the summer, since they may be desperate to finally build a competitive core around Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and Russell. One or two of the Pacers’ big guns may be enough for them to bag their high draft pick, as well as another quality player, though salary-matching may be tough.
Ultimately, if the Pacers commit to a competitive rebuild in the draft, a boisterous deal is necessary. It may be a gamble, but in the grand scheme of things, parting with a combination of Sabonis, Turner or Brogdon to get Mobley or Suggs to gear up for the future may benefit a franchise that has been too conservative on the rebuild front.
An Early Exit for the New Nate
The Pacers front office made a huge gamble in the offseason by firing head coach Nate McMillan after getting swept in the first-round last year. After a long search, the Blue and Gold tabbed former Toronto Raptors assistant Nate Bjorkgren to take over and modernize an approach that while successful, was often deemed outdated. The new Nate’s creative mind under Nick Nurse’s coaching tree was hoped to catapult Indiana out of its first-round funk.
Unfortunately, his creative juices have gone largely for naught this season. This is mostly due to the undermanned lineups and regular shuffles in the rotation that has resulted in a lack of stability and consistency for the squad. He has shown coaching flexibility in the campaign, especially with his possession-by-possession approach to both offensive and defensive schemes, but he has not been able to maximize the team’s ceiling and a bulk of that is out of his control.
In their impressive run in the early going of the season, he was considered as a potential Coach of the Year. However, all those talks have vanished as Indiana slowly faltered. Nate Bjorkgren is a bright mind with a keen eye for detail, but he is not flawless.
His sometimes-questionable rotations, refusal to rest Brogdon and Sabonis more, and his overreliance on the bench in 4th quarters are just some of the factors that have arguably resulted in a lot of blown leads and even injuries in the season. As a result, the Pacers brass may cut its ties with the young coach earlier than anticipated.
However, a more likely prompt for an early exit is his reported falling-out with the players, especially the locker room issues that have exacerbated the team’s disappointing campaign so far. While the credibility of recent barbed articles about his tendencies may be overblown, or even false, the fact that it’s on the surface speaks volumes about a lack of control within the team.
One-and-done coaching runs in the NBA are very rare, but it has already happened recently. Igor Kokoskov was notably fired by the Phoenix Suns only a season in after the team tallied a putrid 19-63 record in 2018-19. Monty Williams then came in and the franchise is now thriving.
In all honesty, Nate Bjorkgren has done a fine job considering the myriad of injuries and instability. Fans simply throw him off in comparison to his predecessor who managed to overcome injuries and yield better records.
However, it must be noted that while the Pacers have crumbled, the other teams in the East have simply gotten better. Hence, firing Bjorkgren and his creative mind is not desirable, but it is certainly a possibility that will float around if Indiana misses the postseason, for better or for worse.