Australian prospect Josh Giddey is a 6-foot-8 point guard with skills to run an NBA offense and enough upside for the Indiana Pacers to consider him in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Welcome to Pacer Prospects, the series where we will take a look at prospects in the 2021 NBA Draft that I think would be a great fit for the Indiana Pacers not only now, but for the foreseeable future.
Today’s piece is all about Melbourne’s very own Josh Giddey, a 6-foot-8 lead guard who has, to put it frankly, absolutely elite vision and defense manipulation potential that is hard to find anywhere else in this draft, nonetheless at this size. Although the Adelaide 36er (NBL) shows most of his promise offensively, he still has the feel and knowledge to one day be a valuable defender.
Disclaimer: Not every installation of this series will be strictly predicated on the most popular prospects, rather I’ll aim to cover players I believe would help the Pacers from a plug-and-play perspective and/or project to help the Pacers as they develop.
As always, let’s start off with Josh Giddey’s strengths on the court.
What skills would Josh Giddey bring to the Indiana Pacers?
Passing and Initiating: “You’re a wizard [Josh]!”
If you’re searching for the best passers in this year’s draft, there aren’t many that compete with Giddey. Good luck finding passes this kid can’t make, and at 18 it’s simply otherworldly that his feel for the game on this end is already at this level. This extraterrestrial dime-dropping is exactly how Josh’s value is felt on the floor, and he should be able to abduct defenses from his NBA debut.
He can hit diving bigs routinely off pick and rolls, sling passes to open shooters off penetrations ambidextrously, and the threat to toss a lob is always there if he desires. Giddey just displays basketball wizardry with the ball in his hands every time he’s on the floor.
He can use any and every angle on entry, kick out, or swing passes, and he just seems like one of those rare players with “eyes on the back of his head.” Giddey also manipulates by his ability to “change pace” and although he may not be a super-athlete by any stretch of the imagination, he makes up in craft where he lacks in athleticism. He’s also a real threat in “grab and go” situations, where he frequently snagged defensive rebounds and heaved full-court touchdowns.
He’s got a great handle for his size, and he rarely coughs up the ball. He knows how to remain composed against a plethora of defensive aggression, and he will always enforce his decided pace on the game.
Finishing: Real promise, already at least average
Although Giddey may be limited in some regards by a less than ideal 6-foot-7 wingspan (less than his height), his ability to finish already shows lots of polish and consistency. As we all know, you can’t teach being 6-foot-8, and his size combined with his ability to finish ambidextrously make him a true dual-threat out of his mastered pick and roll decision making.
Josh doesn’t just utilize layups, and his floater could be a real issue for teams to deal with as he gets even more and more comfortable with it. We are seeing more high usage rate guards using their elite alley-oop passing and floater ability to keep big men guessing.
James Harden does this beautifully, as any time he’s headed to the hoop it’s 50/50 whether he’ll take the floater himself or lob it up to his rim runner because they look exactly the same leaving his hand. This could help players like Goga Bitadze and Myles Turner really unlock their screen-rolling value.
Defense: Quick hands and solid feel.
Giddey is far from a finished project on defense, and we’ll get to that later, but his high IQ and quick hands make him a solid off-ball pass interceptor and on-ball pest. He will also always have that size to depend on, and as he puts on some gains in the weight room we should be able to see some switch-ability.
For now, he’s a somewhat smart defender with chops to get a solid amount of steals. In the NBL this year he averaged 1.2 steals a game.
With these clear strengths, especially as a playmaker, what caveats come with the Australian Wizard’s game?
What could scare the Indiana Pacers away from Josh Giddey?
Shooting: Improving, but a real limiter
There are some real issues with Josh Giddey’s jumper and said issues create a notable steel gate that is keeping Josh from the Land of the Top-10. He unquestionably has games where the shot is on, but the kinematic functions in his form really limit his energy from properly flowing throughout his jump shot.
His knees predominantly bend in on catch and shoots and off dribbles alike and this is the first issue as it’s hard to create necessary energy when your legs are at this angle. His elbow also starts off bent out, and the readjustment we see before the ball is released is another energy killer.
He also has smaller issues like a bit of a slow release and “thumbing” the ball, which will be worked out in time, but the aforementioned issues regarding his knees and elbow have to be properly addressed.
Again there are games when Giddey looks like a competent, reliable shooter, but too many games showed us the reason why he was just a 30% shooter from deep this season. I think Indy’s training staff could be huge for Giddey, as we’ve seen Victor Oladipo take meaningful strides working within Indiana’s program that I think we could also see taken by the Aussie prospect.
Defense: We need some real work here folks.
Sure, he has the predictionary hands I mentioned earlier, but he doesn’t yet have the fundamental capabilities of locking up initiators full time. He shows flashes of driving smaller guards bonkers with his height, but his lateral quickness can really kill him on this end.
Off the ball he doesn’t reliably recognize needed positioning for meaningful help, he needs to improve his ability to “get skinny” when maneuvering through screens, and he has an excruciatingly frustrating habit of turning his head from the ball for extended periods of time.
I don’t think Giddey should be expected to guard lead scoring wings probably ever, but it’s vital for him to iron out his off-ball deficiencies and show more effort on this end consistently.
Strength: Common problem for tall guards, should be fixed in NBA
I think Josh coming to the league this early is an immensely intelligent decision for his career path. Getting into an NBA system will always be more beneficial than staying overseas or in college because of the advanced training and competition.
One of the awards Giddey is reaping is the best in the world weight training programs that the NBA can offer. Giddey’s 206-pound frame is obviously holding him back in some aspects of his game, from not being able to finish through contact, to being bullied off the ball via screen gauntlets.
Adding 10-15 pounds early is certainly possible and it’d help Josh’s issues tenfold.
With his strengths and weaknesses analyzed, how would he fit with Indiana?
Josh Giddey as a Pacers lead guard
Offense: Could help run either bench or starting unit early.
In a world where Malcolm Brogdon is still on the Pacers next season, and I hope he is, Giddey would most likely come off the bench. Even if he does become a starter, I don’t see Malcolm and Josh getting into each other’s way too much. If Malcolm Brogdon can work with T.J. McConnell, it’s reasonable to assume that he’d play just fine off of the upgrade in Josh Giddey.
I tend to hope the Pacers trade Sabonis for assets this offseason, and this would be influential in Josh’s development via the spacing Myles Turner and three other shooters would create for him to murder defenses with.
Players like the aforementioned T.J. McConnell and Malcolm Brogdon could also bode well in leadership roles, as both are great leaders and floor generals alike. His passing would aid the developmental progressions of youngsters on the roster like Edmond Sumner, Oshae Brissett, Goga Bitadze, Myles Turner, Aaron Holiday, and rookie Cassius Stanley.
His pace and overall control of the game while simultaneously being able to confidently make decisions on the fly could make the Navy and Gold a very efficient and fluid offense in the long term, especially if his streaky off-the-dribble pull-up can become more consistent.
His drive and launches to the team’s hired snipers Justin Holiday, Dougie McBuckets, and eventually T.J. Warren would possibly allow more touches, and in turn production, for these efficiently productive bucket getters.
I said it earlier, but this selection would be huge for Goga, as he’d have a player that knows how to beautifully utilize players of his mold. It’d be commonplace to see Josh floating lobs for Goga slams, or utilizing some stupidly brilliant entry pass into the 6-foot-11 behemoth.
Defense: Solid lane thievery, maybe some communication
I don’t expect Josh to be a day one defensive stalwart by any stretch of the imagination, but his quick hands and tendency to call out needed defensive rotations in action will absolutely carry over.
He could end possessions when ball handlers get walled off by the big men down low via the aforementioned ability to intercept passes. He wouldn’t be a lead initiator defender, and that’s ok! His value is obviously on the offensive end, but I don’t see him being one of the worst defenders in the NBA because his size and IQ alone should allow him to add value.
Would the Pacers be able to pick him?
Where would Josh Giddey be available, and would selecting him be a value-conscious decision for the Indiana Pacers?
If the Indiana Pacers don’t embrace the tank (as they should!), picking from the 10-15 range is likely in the books, and I honestly don’t have an issue with the Pacers picking a 6-foot-8 hoop wizard there.
Players of this unique mold don’t really come around often, and you might as well pick a guy whose skill set would also compliment the existing veterans on the team, and also benefit the other developing guys on the roster.
His fit might not be perfect, but his upside may be too high for the Pacers to pass up on a tall point guard with elite-level passing at just 18 years old. If Indy makes a move for a later pick (15-18, where Giddey is often projected), via a roster move, I think he would be a perfect selection in that range.
At the end of the day, Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell are both nearing 30, and although their games will likely age well, drafting a point guard for the future is a void that lots of rosters around the league would like to fill, and you might as well do it with the Aussie, Josh Giddey.