How has the Turbonis duo performed for the Indiana Pacers?
As everyone reading this knows, the Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis frontcourt is the source of plenty of division among NBA and Indiana Pacers fans. Most assumed they would, at one point, be broken up. Many picked a side, while others pulled for the “Turbonis” frontcourt to make it through the debate unscathed.
It’s now year two of the duo starting together, and similar uncertainties remain. The experiment did seem mostly successful last season, but it was unfortunate that the two couldn’t play together in a playoff setting. In their time on the floor together in 2019-20, Sabonis and Turner produced a positive net rating and while there were offensive issues at times, the idea that they could close games together and play heavy minutes together was becoming generally more accepted within the NBA community.
That hasn’t changed this year, at least it shouldn’t through 27 games. While their net rating is -1.5, it’s a small sample that has been heavily influenced by a drastic drop in the Pacers’ defensive performance when the two are on the floor together and Indiana’s scoring differential being lower than last season. If those numbers remain through a full season, then a discussion about their pairing could be worthwhile, but for now, the focus should be on the difference in the Turner-only minutes vs. the Sabonis-only minutes.
In past years, the Pacers’ best lineups typically came when Sabonis occupied the floor without Turner. Last year’s bench unit of T.J. McConnell, Aaron and Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott, and Sabonis carried a net rating of 7.2.
That lineup has been a negative this season in 42 minutes. The same lineup, with Turner inserted over Sabonis, has a net rating of +22.4 (only 28 minutes). Those are small samples, so let’s use two-man lineups instead.
Of the Pacers’ two-man lineups with at least 150 minutes played this season, here’s the nine with a negative net rating: Lamb/Turner (-7.0 points per 100 possessions), Sabonis/A. Holiday (-6.9), Brogdon/A. Holiday (-3.5), Lamb/Sabonis (-3.2), Sabonis/Brogdon (-3.1), Lamb/Brogdon (-2.9), Sabonis/Turner (-1.5), J. Holiday/Sabonis (-1.3), and McDermott/Sabonis (-0.9).
To paint a picture of the on/off number differential between Sabonis and Turner, here are the numbers if you replace the negative Sabonis two-man lineups with Turner: Lamb/Turner (-7.0), Turner/A.Holiday (4.0), Brogdon/Turner (3.2), J. Holiday/Turner (2.8), and McDermott/Turner (7.6)
Every player, besides Jeremy Lamb, that produces a negative net rating with Sabonis on the floor produces a positive net rating with Turner on the floor (150+ minutes).
When Turner is on the floor without Sabonis, Indiana scores 116.33 points per 100 possessions and allows 99.55 points per 100 possessions. When Sabonis is on the floor without Turner, Indiana scores 111.35 points per 100 possessions and allows 114.81 points per 100 possessions.
The defensive numbers being significantly better in Turner-only minutes isn’t a shock. The offensive numbers being better, however, is both surprising and potentially a cause for concern. Indiana being more efficient without Sabonis on the floor is a complete reversal from past seasons and warrants a deeper dive into the reasons.
Sabonis-Only Minutes
Here’s a look at the Pacers shot chart when only Sabonis is on the floor. The Pacers are among the league-leaders in shots at the rim, and this shot chart only furthers that. Outside of a few spots above-the-break, the majority of the shots in these lineups come from around the rim.
What about the opponent shot chart? That’s a lot of orange and red in the most important spots, around the rim and at the three-point line.
Saturday night against Atlanta, the Pacers went to a Sabonis-only lineup for a big chunk of the second period. It performed well offensively but gave up 24 points in a little over eight minutes. Indiana played some zone during this stretch, but not until the Hawks began putting the undersized and slower defensive unit in space.
To be fair, this was a rough defensive lineup, especially when considering Nate Bjorkgren’s general defensive philosophies. Atlanta knew the Pacers were going to bring Sabonis to the screen to apply ball-pressure and help for Aaron Holiday and took advantage of Holiday’s pressure. With this lineup on the floor, there was no rim protection below the screen and Sabonis couldn’t recover in time.
Indiana’s defensive struggles of late aren’t all Sabonis’ fault. Bjorkgren has made a few questionable defensive decisions (a story for another time), but it’s clear the Sabonis-only minutes are being compromised in the two most efficient places, and especially at the rim.
The more surprising aspect is the offense. Sabonis minutes have still been good offensively, but lag behind the Turner minutes. The reason is likely simpler than one would think: Sabonis is being asked to do too much.
Bench lineups from last season, and the days of sixth-man-Sabonis, were effective because of the way he elevated the players around him and his selectivity in the shots he took. That’s likely a major reason why his true shooting percentage peaked in 2018-19 at 63%.
Sabonis has shot the ball 20+ times in four different games this season. All were losses, and outside of Jan. 11’s game against Sacramento, none were particularly close. In the one game where he shot 19 times, Indiana lost as well.
The fifth-year standout ranks No. 2 in the entire NBA for touches, meaning he has the ball in his hands more than almost anyone else in the league.
None of this is to say Indiana is better without Sabonis or that Pacers fans should panic, but the on/off numbers are getting too drastic to ignore at this point. A similar thing is happening with Malcolm Brogdon as well (when Turner is on and Brogdon/Sabonis sit, the Pacers are putting up a lofty 127.92 points per 100 possessions).
Turner-only minutes
The offensive shot charts when Turner is on the floor without Sabonis are fairly similar. While efficiency around the rim drops a tad, there are more orange and red hexes elsewhere, making up for the lack of makes at the rim.
On the other hand, the opponent shot chart looks much better. Gone are the orange and red hexes around the rim when Turner is the only center.
Against Atlanta, the Pacers closed without Domas and turned a 91-98 deficit into a double-digit victory in a little under nine minutes. Indiana was able to score effectively, but their defense was what stood out in those minutes.
Here, Danilo Gallinari creates an advantage after attacking Brogdon’s aggressive closeout. Even though the Hawks have numbers, Gallo dishes out to Kevin Huerter instead of challenging Turner or throwing it to someone who can challenge Turner. Atlanta still manages to get a decent look from the perimeter, but Turner’s ability to deter the driver gave the rest of the defense time to recover and keep Huerter from getting a lane to the basket.
One potential reason for why the Turner-only units have found more success this season is that he’s a better fit with Indiana’s undersized wings and guards when considering Bjorkgren’s defense. In a defensive system where ball pressure and aggressive closeouts are commonplace, the length Turner provides is vital.
Bjorkgren’s Toronto Raptors’ teams typically rolled out lineups with long wingspans and high IQ defenders that could still disrupt plays even when operating at a numbers disadvantage. The lineup that was on the floor for the above play isn’t exactly chock-full of that, but Turner can fill a large part of that role.
The two-man combination of Turner and T.J. McConnell has produced a 94.3 defensive rating, the lowest of any significant two-man lineup. McConnell’s pressure and a knack for steals pairs perfectly with an elite rim-protector and weakside defender like Turner.
Rebounding has oftentimes been the downfall of solo-Turner minutes, but that hasn’t been the case this season. Turner-only minutes have produced a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.45%, while Sabonis-only minutes have produced a defensive rebounding percentage of 72.47%. Meaning, Indiana actually grabs more of the available defensive rebounds when Turner is the sole big than when Sabonis is.
In regards to the offensive numbers, the shot profile looks roughly the same as the Sabonis-only minutes, but the difference lies in Indiana’s proficiency at getting to the free-throw line when Turner is the only center. They average six more points per 100 possessions at the free-throw line in the Turner minutes.
Like I noted earlier, a big part of the Pacers’ offense this season has been attacking the interior. While the efficiency around the rim drops a bit in the Turner minutes, his floor spacing gives more driving lanes for guards, and in turn, more free-throw attempts and kicks to open three-point shooters.
Again, this isn’t to say Turner is better than Sabonis or that the Pacers are better off with him, but to this point in the season, Indiana has performed really well in his minutes as the lone-center.
What it means for the Indiana Pacers
For one, the Pacers’ prowess with Turner on the floor and Sabonis off, should provide Nate Bjorkgren with more lineup versatility and the ability to dial back the Lithuanian All-Star’s minutes. While a heavy minute load may not be the reason for the above numbers, it certainly would be in the team’s best interest to keep Sabonis fresher as the season wears on.
The numbers should also force Bjorkgren to re-evaluate the way he organizes his defense in the Sabonis-at-center minutes. Either providing Sabonis with more able defenders around him or dialing back the pressure, could help bring the defensive numbers back towards respectability.
It also provides a reason to keep the “Turbonis” duo around. The solo-Sabonis minutes have been dynamic in the past, and the solo-Turner minutes have been dynamic this season. Finding a way to unlock both of those lineups at the same time is one of the keys for the rest of the season. If it can be done, it allows the Pacers to stagger their minutes more and keep one of the two on the floor at all times in pivotal Playoff games.