In an NBA landscape where everyone seems to be chasing a similar formula, the Indiana Pacers are doing their own thing.
I’d like to start this discussion off by looking at some key contracts from the last 3 years not signed by your Indiana Pacers. These all fall after the cap explosion and resulting contract disaster many teams faced after signing ill advised long term deals, meaning these were all signed after half of the NBA compromised their cap flexibility and asset pool.
2019:
Tobias Harris: 5 years, $180 million
Harrison Barnes: 4 years, $85 million
Bojan Bogdanovic: 4 years, $73 million
Rudy Gay: 2 years, $32 million
Trevor Ariza: 2 years, $25 million
Marcus Morris: 1 year, $15 million
2018:
Trevor Ariza: 1 year, $15 million
Rudy Gay: 1 year, $10.1 million
Kyle Anderson: 4 years, $37.2 million
Nemanja Bjelica: 3 years, $20.5 million
2017:
Otto Porter Jr: 4 years, $106.5 million
Danilo Gallinari: 3 years, $64.8 million
James Johnson: 3 years, $43.4 million
Joe Ingles: 4 years, $52 million
Since the rise of the Golden State dynasty – spearheaded by the “Death Lineup” – the rest of the NBA has obsessed over going with small ball power forwards. Many of the players listed above are good players in a vacuum, but all of them are overpaid. Some are simply too many years for their age, some are way too much money yearly, and some just aren’t very good.
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They all share one common trait, though: they all can play small ball power forward. Teams are desperate, and they’re paying like it. This has a ripple effect on teams and on the league as a whole. If a majority of teams are overpaying for inferior players at a specific position, there’s a market inefficiency at others.
The Pacers don’t have the cache (or the cash) to bid for these players. That’s exactly what we just saw play out with the 30-year-old Bojan Bogdanovic. Bogey was coming off a career year with the Pacers. Indiana gave him his first opportunity to start, and helped turn him from a 10 million dollar a year backup for a highly compensated starter, but they still lost him to an overwhelming contract offer.
The Pacers offered good money for the 30-year-old forward, but were trumped in dollars and years both by the Utah Jazz. The Jazz will be paying Bogdanovic over 18 million bucks when he’s 34. Bojan will almost certainly be on the downside of his career at that point. His game should age well, but that’s heavy money for a guy with limited athleticism at that age. That theme repeats itself over and over in the above list. Rather than bid for the privilege to pay out bad contracts, the Pacers have gone another direction.
What’s the big idea?
In committing to starting Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner together while drafting Goga Bitadze, the Pacers have cast their lot into the bully ball ring. While teams around the NBA have prioritized going small to challenge the (now defunct) death lineup Golden State terrorized teams with, Indiana is looking to brutalize those teams with size and strength.
There are two big parts to making this whole thing work.
Component 1: Domantas Sabonis, power forward
The Pacers will be starting Sabonis at the 4 spot next to Myles Turner, and Kevin Pritchard has commented that re-signing Sabonis will be a top priority this season. Sabonis played the 4 in Oklahoma City his rookie year and struggled mightily. While many teams and fans remember that with a sour look, it’s important to note some differences.
Sabonis played power forward next to Steven Adams, a punishing physical center with no range as a jump shooter. He also played with Russell Westbrook. While Westbrook is a physical marvel and perennial MVP candidate, he is the worst high volume 3 point shooter in NBA history.
Sabonis was forced into a role he didn’t fit as a stretch 4 standing in the corner and waiting for kickouts. He played on a team with zero spacing, and zero room available in the paint. While Sabonis is a reasonable enough shooter, standing in the corner and waiting is not his strength at all. He was criminally misused in OKC. That will not the case in Indiana.
The Pacers have paired Sabonis with a stretch big in Myles Turner. Turner shot 39% from 3 last year and is on his way to becoming an elite stretch option. Turner’s efficient floor spacing allows Sabonis to do what he does best. Sabonis is best utilized in the center role on offense, screening, running dribble hand offs, and punishing any team that dares switch or match him up with a smaller player.
This also leaves Sabonis in line for one of his best skills – offensive rebounding. With guards and wings who can shoot dotting the lineup (Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, Doug McDermott, Aaron Holiday) mixed in with some adept penetrators, Sabonis should have space and opportunity to take advantage of all the things that make him great on offense.
Component 2: Go-go gadget Goga
The Georgian center the Pacers snapped up with the 18th pick may not have a familiar name, but many scouts and draft experts were drooling over his potential and value that late in the 1st. Bitadze was mocked as high as 6th by a few, and he wasn’t widely expected to be available when Indiana drafted.
Kevin Pritchard called Goga his “easiest draft decision ever,” and his potential makes it easy to see why. Bitadze was an elite shot blocker overseas, is adept in the pick and roll, and has shown flashes of a burgeoning pick and pop game that could stretch out to the 3 point line.
What’s the result?
By drafting value (while others focused on finding wings that could match up with a lineup in Golden State that no longer exists), the Pacers fortified their position in the long game. While the rest of the NBA is going small, the Pacers are picking value in going counter-culture. There’s no telling if the strategy will work. This is betting big on Sabonis being able to reasonably guard smaller 4’s, something that’s only been moderately successful so far.
It’s betting on Goga Bitadze to come in as a rookie and be an impact player. It’s betting on Myles Turner to remain an elite shot blocker and shooter while holding up against the behemoths of the NBA. None of these things are guarantees by any means, but in an NBA obsessed to the point of danger with going small, the Pacers have a puncher’s chance of succeeding by socking teams in the mouth.
As we continue to inch closer towards pre-season basketball, the big men of the Indiana Pacers will definitely be something to keep an eye on. Can all of these guys co-exist on one roster, or will the Pacers be left in the dust of the modern NBA?