In the wake of Bojan Bogdanovic’s departure, how can T.J. Warren contribute in his new uniform for the Indiana Pacers?
Minutes prior to the 2019 NBA Draft, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Indiana Pacers would acquire Phoenix Suns forward T.J. Warren, along with the 32nd overall pick, in exchange for cash considerations. The move is still somewhat puzzling, as the Pacers gave up no trade assets and simply absorbed his contract – with 3 years left at just over $35 million collectively – leaving them with a young player and assets that helped attain Malcolm Brogdon.
Despite an ankle injury limiting him to just 43 games last season, Warren posted respectable averages and had the most efficient shooting season of his career. The 25-year-old averaged 18.0 points and 4.0 rebounds on 58% true-shooting from the floor. Starting for a team that has been in a perennial rebuild, it’s a little perplexing Phoenix was so willing to move on from the fourteenth pick in the 2014 draft.
Considering the team’s front office was willing to take on his three-year guaranteed contract, clearly they see potential in Warren and think he can positively impact Indy’s young core. With Victor Oladipo likely sitting out until January, and Bojan Bogdanovic signing with the Utah Jazz, the Pacers’ new addition will have an increased opportunity as he takes over the starting small forward role.
I want to look at a few of the ways Warren can contribute for his new team, starting with what he can do on the perimeter:
Three-point shooting
The Pacers have stated a desire to increase the volume of their attempts from deep, and Warren fit the mold they were looking for. Last year, their roster finished the season ranked fifth overall in three-point percentage, but they were next to last in attempts from long-range.
While he hasn’t held the reputation as a dead-eye from deep, Warren’s three-point shooting last season was pretty impressive. Entering the year as a career 28.3 percent shooter from three, he converted on 42.8% of his attempts in 2018-19. Had he played in enough games for inclusion in overall statistic standings, the forward would have ranked seventh in the league in three-point shooting.
To find the emergence of his hot-hand, Warren had to put three-point shooting into practice. Attempting just 279 threes over the first four seasons of his career, Phoenix’s starting forward took 180 shots from deep in barely over half a season last year.
In fact, nearly thirty percent of his total attempts came from beyond the arc – quite the increase from the previous season when he took just 8.5% of his shots from long-range. On a nightly basis, he increased his three-point attempts to an average of 4.2; a significant improvement over a previous career-high of 1.5 attempts per game.
Most of the forward’s three-point shots last season came off of passes, and he was able to efficiently score on 43.5% of his catch-and-shoot threes. He tends to prefer shooting from above the break, but he drained fifty percent of his attempts from the left corner. Warren hasn’t shown the ability to consistently knock down pull-up threes, although if he can emulate these same shooting percentages, he’s certain to aid the Pacers’ spacing and scoring volume, especially while Oladipo is sidelined.
Lineup Versatility
As we previously touched on, Warren provides the Pacers with additional lineup flexibility. In each of his first four seasons, he played no less than 63 percent of his minutes at the small forward spot. Last season, the forward was shifted to the four and spent 99% of his time there.
In the scenario where he’s playing at the three, the 25-year-old has shown he can get to the rim; thirty percent of his two-point attempts came within three feet of the basket last year, and he scored on 67.2% of those shots. On the other hand, his position in Phoenix’s lineup and three-point shooting certainly helped him showcase his versatility as a stretch-four. That should be amplified alongside the Pacers’ roster.
If Coach Nate McMillan opted to start Jeremy Lamb at the three upon Oladipo’s return, Warren could immediately relieve either Sabonis or Turner and play alongside the other. When the other big man is sent to the bench, the 6-foot-8 forward could remain at the four or shift over to small forward.
His size and length allow him to guard multiple positions and he can space the floor offensively regardless of his placement in the rotation. As noted earlier in the article, he was able to notch his best season from deep in the first season he played as a power forward.
As the Pacers begin without their leader, Warren will start at the three next to a Sabonis/Turner front-court. He spent a majority of his time at the three prior to last season, and his athleticism allows him a smooth transition between the two lineup spots. In a lineup with good passers in Brogdon, Sabonis, and eventually their starting shooting guard, the former Phoenix Sun should benefit from his ability to cut past his man to the basket.
Even when Oladipo is back in action, McMillan could opt to utilize the 6-foot-8 forward at the three in a length-focused rotation. Younger and more athletic than Bogdanovic, the Pacers’ new addition will fit in well with Indiana’s defensive juggernaut of a squad.
Shooting off the dribble
Warren is exceptional at creating his own shots. Not many of his opportunities from three are found on his own, but his shooting ability inside the perimeter allows him to score in a plethora of ways. Whether he’s coming off a screen, or taking his defender one-on-one, the forward can find openings for an attempt around the basket. A career 43.5% shooter from 10-to-16 feet, he’s shown he can get buckets from outside of the paint, as well.
As a
, opponents always have to worry that Warren is going to explode toward the basket like a bullet. Even if he can’t find a high-percentage layup, or an attempt to throw down an emphatic dunk, the forward can get a little crafty at creating additional space for himself:
Given he’s likely to have earned more respect from defenders when he’s behind the arc, Warren should find himself in more pick-and-roll scenarios from around the perimeter. Seeing as Sabonis and Turner are both solid screeners, it’s not outlandish to think the Pacers’ new forward will find himself with more opportunities at a clean look – either from behind the arc or at the rim.
When the regular season rolls around, the Pacers are going to need scoring. Teams with a handful of new members often have a trial period of getting comfortable and building chemistry on the court, but it’s relieving when you have a starter who can be relied on to find good looks and knock down shots off a pass.
Now that T.J. Warren is out of a dysfunctional franchise and playing under a regime with organizational alignment in the Indiana Pacers, maybe he can continue his positive trajectory and become a reliable 20+ PPG scorer in an evolving league focused more on three-point shooting more than ever.