Well, that was an eventful draft evening. The Indiana Pacers began Thursday, NBA Draft day, with two picks and wheeled and dealed their way into frontcourt help and a bevy of future draft picks. Here’s how it went down.
It was a long day, an eventful day, and the Indiana Pacers concluded the day with two new players. That number wasn’t a surprise, Indiana entered draft day with two selections, but things were not simple.
A big trade, a big fella was selected, and second rounders were exchanged gleefully. Plenty of Hoosiers were in the draft, Indiana left with none of them.
But it’s fair to say that Indiana came out ahead from the 2019 NBA Draft. It began early.
5:26 PM – Phoenix trades T.J. Warren and the 32nd pick to Indiana for, basically, cap space
There’s a lot to like about T.J. Warren. The soon to be 26-year old forward is on a team-friendly contract (including this season: 3 years, $35.3M left) and is coming off back-to-back seasons where he scored 19.6 and 18 ppg, respectively. He’s a heady player on offense, where he moves well off the ball (which you’re going to like), lulling his defenders to sleep before slicing to the basket.
Warren is at his best when he is tossed the ball, transforms into a rolling boulder then barrels downhill toward the basket. He doesn’t do this mindlessly, he’s like Indianapolis Colts great, Dwight Freeney, in that way, he has a bull-rush, a spin, he can stop and pop. Warren’s got several tools in his chest which helps him do something the Pacers need: create his own shot.
The flip side is he can become a blackhole. The ball goes to Warren and doesn’t come back out. He can pass and be a team player, but when he makes up his mind to score it’s not changing. But he’s also not afraid to work on aspects of his game.
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This past season, he dusted off an improved three-point shot. Warren was 42.8% from deep, taking 4 threes a game. Both numbers were gigantic improvements over what he had previously done in his career. That has been a trend for Warren, improvement, he’s largely gotten better each season of his career, a trend that bodes well.
Now all that said, the smart bet is the under on continuing his 18+ ppg streak, Phoenix was and is terrible and plays in a style that encourages space, speed and isolations. The Pacers are structured and like ball-movement. Will he score, yes, will his ability to create his own shot be valuable, yes, but he will have to adjust.
Fortunately, he’s shown that he can dabble in everything. Excluding scoring, his numbers are in the ballpark of what Thaddeus Young did this year in Indiana. And that’s an important point to how he will likely be used.
Assuming neither Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner are traded, Warren will fill the role that Young filled so well here in Indiana. He is listed as a small forward but he is similarly sized to Young (Warren: 6’8″, 215 lbs; Young: 6’8″, 221 lbs), and the Suns frequently deployed him as a nominal four.
Acquiring Warren will allow Indiana to play Sabonis and Turner together more while using Warren as a balance that can play with either Sabonis or Turner. In practice, start the two bigs, Warren then replaces one, stays in while the centers replace each other, then subs out to let them close.
Warren would offer a dynamic that the two bigs don’t bring. While Sabonis is more post savvy and a brilliant passer, and Turner slashes well and is a strong shooter, Warren will bull rush defenses.
Does this mean that Thad Young’s time in Indiana is over? Not necessarily, Indiana still has his Bird rights and could retain him.
But, adding a player like Warren smells like a change. It’s probably a change needed for the Pacers to keep progressing as a team (Sabonis needs more minutes). Exchanging Warren for Young makes that transition much easier. A bittersweet after-taste to a clever trade to open draft night.
9:29 PM – Indiana Pacers select Goga Bitadze, C, Georgia (the country) with 18th pick
Goga Bitadze is a strong pick, it would have been regardless of the T.J. Warren trade, but especially after. Bitadze represents further renovation of the Indiana Pacers’ front court. Here’s the theory: if you are going to commit to playing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner together, you’re need a reliable backup Center who can protect the rim. That was an issue for the Pacers even last season, take Turner out of the equation and the middle was opened up.
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Enter the 6-11 Georgian with his 7-2 wingspan. Though not the same, he swatted 2.3 blocks per game last year in Euroleague play. While he’ll have to keep developing his game and tune it up to the NBA level, the aptitude is there and he plays defense with ferocity.
On offense he plays more like an American center than a European one. He’s comfortable in the post and will enjoy the battles inside. He also compliments his post game with a decent enough jumper and he has a good handle, especially for someone of his size.
Whether TJ Leaf remains on the team or not, the Pacers have a much younger more dynamic front court. Sabonis and Turner are well known and will both be 23 next season. Warren, who can play both forward spots, is the old man at 26. Bitadze who brings a post acumen on both ends of the floor, will be 20.
And Leaf, who on his good days can shoot and stretch, is 22. The road for playing time for Leaf did just get much tougher, which is a good thing for the team as a whole. A strong and competitive front court is not a bad thing.
11:08 PM – Indiana Pacers select KZ Okpala with 32nd pick
Psych! Actually, the Pacers traded Okpala to Miami for three second round picks. In summary, the Pacers found a way to trade some stacks of money for T.J. Warren and three future second round picks. Miami spectacularly only has four more of their own picks under their control, all second rounders (2022, 2024, 2025, 2026). Indiana will now control three of those four. All that is neat, but we’ll move along now.
12:09 AM – The 50th pick didn’t happen, dealt to Utah
His name is Jerrell Brantley, he was a power forward from the College of Charleston. That’s actually the alma mater for former Pacer point guard Anthony Johnson. And Brantley is now a Utah Jazz. Indiana received a future second, the pick was not disclosed when this story was written.
Now what?
While the frontcourt has been effectively filled out, there is still a lot of work to do. A starting point guard and small forward need to be signed. Further point guard depth needs to be added, as does a reserve two-guard, which will be a very important spot if Victor Oladipo is not healthy to play at the very beginning of the season.
Currently, excluding Bojan Bogdanovic’s cap hold, Indiana has $32.5M in cap space after Warren’s trade. If you include Bogdanovic’s $13.6M cap hold, then the Pacers have $18.9M in space, with obviously less the more cap holds you cling on to.
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Now, $32.5M is more than enough to offer someone like D’Angelo Russell a Max contract (Russell could get paid approximately $117.2M over four seasons, starting with $27.3M next season).
If you want to sign Russell, that’s the space you need to secure to put yourself in the best position to sign him. Obviously, keeping Bogdanovic’s hold on the books is over $8M short of that maximum space.
Where could that $8M come from while keeping Bogdanovic’s hold on the books? The contracts of Edmond Sumner and Alize Johnson are both non-guaranteed, but even if you released both that’s not enough (combined $3M, $5M+ short).
A quicker solution would be trying to flip Doug McDermott and his $7.3M salary to a team that has cap space and could use a shooter, say Sacramento, or New Orleans or Orlando.
Offer McDermott plus one of the plethora of future seconds and now you’ve freed up nearly enough space to afford Bogdanovic’s cap hold and have enough space for a max contract. Making that trade plus waiving Sumner or Johnson puts you over the top.
Or you don’t want to open up max space, or really like McDermott, $18.9M is still not something to shake a stick at. It’s for sure more than enough room to sign Utah exile Ricky Rubio, which ESPN’s Adrain Wojnarowski wouldn’t shut up about in the lead-up and through the NBA Draft.
As @BobbyMarks42 says, Pacers will still have $31M in cap space after absorbing Warren into the roster. One significant Indiana target in free agent, per sources: point guard Ricky Rubio.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 20, 2019
Say you offered half of that $18.9M to Rubio, you’d still have near mid-level exception money to lure more wing help. In that case, you could fill out your roster with Rubio at the point, Bogdanovic on the wing and that’s certainly not a bad team.
Another option, instead of going the free agent route to fill out the wing rotation, you could work with the likely newly displaced Thaddeus Young via a sign-and-trade. This would allow Young to, in all likelihood, make more money because he can sign a bigger deal with Indiana and get to pick his new destination.
Young’s from New Orleans and there are two teams very close to the Big Easy: the Pelicans and the Houston Rockets, which is 340 miles down the coast from New Orleans. New Orleans could use another veteran stabilizing presence, Houston could be interested in a shake-up. Signing and trade Young plus some assortment of those bonus picks could net Indiana Eric Gordon (Houston) or E’Twaun Moore (New Orleans), or someone of their ilk.
A positive from the draft is that Indiana should feel pretty good about their frontcourt. The work is cut out now. Keeping Bogdanovic (a sensible solution) would solve one piece of the puzzle, the Pacers still need a point guard and a second guard who can create his own shot. Indiana doesn’t exactly have max cap space but can create it. However, if they elect not clear out spots, they can still net two guards for the price of one expensive guard. One thing is for certain this offseason is far from over, actually, it’s just begun. Get ready for July.