I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Darren Collison is on a roll. Collison’s demonstrating the type of production that the Indiana Pacers will need in playoff time. So, why is Indiana supposed to be trading him again?
I want to say this before I say anything else: this article is not an attack piece to Will Furr’s recent article arguing for trading Darren Collison. There are several compelling factors that back the Indiana Pacers trading Collison; one being that Collison is on an expiring contract and that it’s hard to imagine the Pacers keeping each member from their expiring contract gang (Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Tyreke Evans, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, and Kyle O’Quinn). Another salient point was that the Indiana Pacers have ball-handling depth, so moving Collison for forward help would not be a significant loss. All fair points.
The third leg of his argument was that Collison was playing terribly and that moving him for almost anyone is an improvement because Collison’s play was hindering the team. And his play was for over a month.
It isn’t now.
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The first quarter of Collison’s season was historically bad for Collison. Careers lows in nearly every statistically important offensive category sans assists, which was his second worst behind his 2013-14 performance for the Los Angeles Clippers.
Then the Indiana Pacers played the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City on the Monday after Thanksgiving, and something changed for Collison. It wasn’t just that it was the fourth time all year that he didn’t turn the ball over once, or that he finally began to shoot the three well (he didn’t, Collison missed his only attempt). It was how he played. He was more selective on his shot attempts and didn’t appear pressing. He also was more accurate in setting up teammates: his 11 assists was the most he’d dished since the 16 he dealt 398 days prior in a 23-point win, in Minnesota, during the fourth game of last season.
In other words, Collison looked more like the player he was a year ago than the ghost he appeared to be for the majority of 2018-19. In the eight games since Utah, Collison has posted career-best numbers in free-throw percentage, rebounds, assists, and steals. He’s shooting the three at the third best pace of his career. He’s turning the ball over at a rate better than his remarkable career average. Actually, his Assist to Turnover ratio is the fourth best in the league since November 26, and his 72 assists are tied with the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jrue Holiday for the most in the entire NBA.
I can anticipate one of your reactions: eight games is a small sample size blah blah blah. And yes it is, but that’s missing the forest for a singular cedar.
The difference between a slump and a regression
Darren Collison has played in 659 games since he began his professional career. Over the course of those hundreds of games, Collison has established a general pattern for how he plays, as all players do.
In the early stages of his career, he was more combustible. Good game here, dud there. Eventually, his skills will recede as age robs him the edge that has kept him effective in the Association as long as he has been. But what we know from the totality of his work is this: Darren Collison is a talented point guard who thrives directing an offense, setting up teammates and spacing the floor with an accurate three-point shot. He provides leadership, and while not a brick wall defensively, he’s adept at pouncing on passing lanes. That’s his pattern, that’s his mean.
The great numbers he put up last year exceeded those baselines, but not by as much as you would think. Collison was incrementally improving his numbers each season before his career year in 2017-18. Compare that to what he did to begin this year, there was no gradual descent that players generally see when they age. There was no recent precedent for his mediocre production. Collison’s numbers plummeted to entirely unprecedented levels. That’s not a regression, it’s something else entirely.
If Collison regressed to his mean, he would have been shooting around 40% from three, while scoring about a dozen points, and dishing five assists for every two turnovers he committed. Instead, he began 2018-19 shooting 33% from three, while scoring barely nine points per game, and dishing two assists per every turnover. His mean was significantly better than his production.
This leads to three possibilities. The first possibility is that he was injured or sick. If he was – he gave no indication. The second one is that the monstars from Space Jam slipped into an Indiana Pacers practice, while Homer Simpson watched on, and stole Collison’s talent. Or third, he was in a slump.
Slumps are unpredictable, a consistent string of underachievement for an athlete (or whatever). They defy historical precedents. Mike Trout just can’t seem to time up a fastball. Sarah the real estate closer just can’t seem to close a deal. Lionel Messi can’t find the back of the net. Daniel Day-Lewis has a string of weak movies. Darren Collison is a below average basketball player. The good news about slumps is that they do end, and when they do the slumper’s production typically progresses back to their mean.
Exactly like Collison’s production has over the last three weeks. Why this eight-game stretch matters more than “just a small sample size” is because all his recent numbers fit with who he is as a basketball player. While he’s likely not going to be slinging 17 assists every given night, Collison protecting the ball and setting up teammates fits his billing. While 4.5 rebounds a game is high, that also points to how he’s been more aggressive attacking missed shots. All of his shooting percentages have risen to the ballpark of reasonable expectations, except his general field goal percentage, which one could likely conclude will soon rise in time. It took 20 games, but it looks like Darren Collison has returned to his typical form.
What this means going forward
A player exiting a slump is like exchanging a bad player for his much better doppelganger. And this is why you should second-guess trading him away. If/when Victor Oladipo returns (and assuming he plays at or near his all-star level) he will resume his mantle of being the unquestioned number one option for the Indiana Pacers. The secondary options are also becoming clearly defined. Bojan Bogdanovic has shown no indications that his career year is slowing down. Myles Turner (14.4 ppg and 9.6 reg since Nov. 26) has begun to play like fans have long hoped. Those are where the bulk of the Indiana Pacers’ shots will come from (at least from the starters).
That’s not going to leave too many shots for the other two players sharing the floor with Oladipo, Bogdanovic, and Turner. So, the remaining ones need to fit roles that the leading trio do not occupy. Like Thad Young, taking the tough defensive assignment, converting mop up baskets, and doing all the little things that lazy fans blissfully miss. For Darren Collison, this role is safely setting up his teammates, spacing the floor, and jumping passing lanes.
Oladipo doesn’t really need a point guard setting up his shots. It doesn’t hurt but it’s not a pressing necessity. But Bogdanovic (even with his vastly improved driving game) could use a setup pass every now and again, and Turner definitely needs to be assisted. And then there are moments like on Monday night against Washington were a savvy veteran needs to step up to change the tide of the game. Cory Joseph and Aaron Holiday, God bless them, are not at that point in their careers. Collison is.
Both Joseph and Holiday are younger (duh). Both add a ton to the Indiana Pacers. Joseph just fits every facet of the Indiana offensive and defensive schemes. Holiday provides instant offense. But there’s a reason Joseph has come off the bench in 82% of the games he’s played in his career, and likewise, Holiday’s not going to gain a decade of NBA experience in a month.
Joseph’s recent numbers have begun to regress to his mean. Holiday’s boom or bust offensive performances scream rookie; a good rookie, but a rookie nevertheless. In their accustomed roles, both Joseph and Holiday will continue to be valuable additions to the Pacers and thrive: Joseph as the third guard, Holiday as the spark plug. But if you removed Collison from the equation and just elevated Joseph and Holiday the team would be worse.
And that’s the point, what we all have before us is this 2018-19 Indiana Pacers team. As recent NBA history has shown us the future is nearly impossible to read. It could be effervescently bright, or this could be all there is. The best thing the Pacers could do is put forth the best Indiana Pacers team possible, and take on whatever may come. Without Collison, the Pacers will be without the key facilitator and veteran presence they need, especially now that it looks like his slump is finally over.