Reports have suggested that Markelle Fultz could be available in a trade. It would be very risky, should the Indiana Pacers go for it?
The Markelle Fultz saga has been one of the most interesting of the season. Fultz dropped 7 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists against the Indiana Pacers earlier this season, and had been playing adequately for someone of his experience so far this year. But a combination of odd injuries and some other weird stuff has made the Philadelphia 76ers organization sour on the idea of having Fultz on their team long term.
Reports now say that Fultz could be available for trade. Apparently, he is no longer in the Sixers long-term plans, and some believe he will be on a different team by the trade deadline. Who knows what his value is, but the Sixers will have to take the best offer they get if they want to move him.
This is where the Pacers come in. Despite the emergence of Aaron Holiday, the future of the Pacers point guard rotation isn’t clear as Darren Collison and Cory Joseph both have expiring contracts. Could Fultz + Holiday be the answer?
Nobody knows what the Pacers are thinking. It’s important to decide before this trade happen’s if it is even worth it. That is what we are here to debate. Our own Will Furr will handle the “in favor of trading for Fultz” team, and Tony East will handle the “not in favor” squad.
Let’s hash this out.
The case in favor of the Pacers trading for Markelle Fultz
In a word, talent. Fultz is certainly broken right now, maybe injured, but definitely in his own head (to put it lightly). There’s a better than 50% chance that Fultz winds up as a bust at this point, as sad as that is to say. That being said, there’s still a chance he’s NOT a bust. Point guards routinely take 3-4 years in the NBA to “figure it out”. Fultz wasn’t a consensus number 1 pick, but he wasn’t far off.
There are 3 ways for a team to acquire elite talent: Draft, Free Agency, or Trade. Enter the Pacers. The Indiana Pacers are never bad; in fact, they’ve never had the first overall pick in the draft. It’s been 30 years since the Pacers drafted in the top 5 (s/o #2 overall pick Dunkin’ Dutchman Rik Smits!). That’s great as a competitive fan, but not so great for acquiring championship talent.
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Somehow, the Pacers have had even worse luck in free agency. Their best free agent signing of the past 30 years was probably a slightly post prime David West. West was awesome and was an effective 2nd option on a really good team. He was probably overmatched in this capacity, but he was a great Pacer. Beyond West, the best signings quickly turn to guys like C.J. Miles (awesome guy, short-term mildly-effective Pacer). The Indy Star did an utterly depressing piece on it here.
With the draft and free agency ruled out, that leaves trades. The Pacers managed to snag Victor Oladipo when another star forced his way out of town, but they got Oladipo as a distressed asset on a troublesome contract. Dipo’s talent was unquestioned, but he’d had trouble putting it all together. Fultz is younger and has shown *far* less than Oladipo had (it can’t get less than 0), but he’ll also likely cost far less. Philly has announced he’s no longer in the future plans, and that they’re looking for a first for him. I don’t think they’ll get it.
The Sixers are desperately seeking cap space next summer, and Fultz will count 10+ million against that. The Pacers have expiring assets that fit Philly’s need of cap space and reasonable vets and could bring in Fultz and either let him heal physically or toss him in the G-League and tell him to just play through it. Middle-of-the-pack teams have to take risks to move into the upper echelon. Darren Collison isn’t going to be a Pacer next year, and he’s not putting them over the top in a playoff series this year. Offer him for Fultz. At least call the Sixers, and ask ‘em. The worst they say is no.
The case against the Pacers trading for Markelle Fultz
The risk is too high.
The reward could potentially be there. Fultz could become a great player someday like he was in college. But he would have to develop to get there. Development takes time. And the chance the greatness actually happens is becoming more and more minuscule by the day.
The Pacers don’t have time, and they don’t have assets to waste on Fultz.
In the case of time, developing players takes a lot of it, especially for point guards. Fultz is effectively in his first season right now, and it usually takes young point guards a long time to figure it out anyway. In the meantime, he would almost certainly have a sizeable negative impact on the team.
That means the team would be worse during the prime years of Victor Oladipo. Lowering the ceiling of the team during a promising era is not interesting to me, especially when it could never work out at all. Fultz shoulder could never heal, or he could never get over the yips. The development could be fruitless.
Additionally, Fultz would cost assets. The Pacers would probably have to give up a quality veteran and a pick to get him. The veteran hurts the team this year. Does a worse version of the current Indiana Pacers team win a playoff series?
Who knows. But winning a playoff series will be important in luring 2019 free agents who are interested in competing for a title. If the Pacers acquire Fultz and flame out in the first round of the playoffs, it will make it harder to pull some guys who are on the fence about joining the team.
The asset(s) sent for Fultz would be gone. They could no longer be traded for anything else. Is it worth dropping an asset on a project that may or may not pan out when you could instead save that asset for the big move that nets you a star? I say it is not. The Sixers themselves kept their assets home for a long time and they were eventually able to trade for Jimmy Butler.
The final thing to consider: Fultz’s 2019 team option has already been picked up, meaning he is on the books for $9,745,200 in 2019-20. That would eat a fair amount into the Pacers cap space, which would impact their summer spending. Is it worth having Fultz, who has yet to show he can be an impactful basketball player, on the ledger as the teams third-highest player? I think not.
The Indiana Pacers could view the reward as higher than the risk. Should they make the move? Who knows, it has some serious pros and cons. Reports suggest that Fultz will be off of the Sixers by the trade deadline, so we may find out in the next few months.