3 key stats for the Indiana Pacers after 2 weeks

It’s been two weeks of the NBA season and we are starting to get a feel for what teams really are. What have we learned about the Indiana Pacers?

The Indiana Pacers have concluded their first 14 days of the season. At 4-3 they are basically meeting expectations so far. They haven’t been great, and they haven’t been bad. Instead of over or underwhelming, I would say they have been whelming compared to expectations.

But they still have been growing on the things that they did last season. They are still winning games despite experimenting with two center lineups and using an antiquated shot profile. The way they are winning is the McMillan way, which we have seen over the last few seasons.

As this team grows familiar with each other (they are integrating two key players into the rotation this season) they will improve, too. A 4-3 baseline is a good start, but this team should really start to grind out the wins come December when they have accumulated some chemistry.

At this point, though, we have seen enough of the 2018-19 Indiana Pacers to know what to expect from them in terms of strategy and scheme. Let’s look at some stats that will define this team going forward.

The Indiana Pacers won’t take many threes

…but they will make the ones they do take.

Before the Pacers game against the Trail Blazers on Monday, Blazers head coach Terry Stotts said something pregame to the effect of “the Pacers don’t take threes unless they are very open. But when they take them they make them”.

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He’s spot on. The Pacers are currently third to last in three-point attempt rate, shooting just 26.1 percent of their shots from long range. The flip side of that is that they lead the league in 3pt%, knocking down 43 percent of shots from long-range.

If you’re on twitter, you’ve probably seen a Pacers fan frustrated by this phenomenon. But it isn’t new. John Schumann of NBA.com wrote about how the Pacers did something similar in 2016-17. In fact, if the current percentages hold (still a ton of basketball to be played) this would be the third consecutive season in which the Indiana Pacers finish top-10 in three-point percentage and bottom-10 in three-point attempt rate.

I don’t think this is as bad as most people do. The Pacers shot selection is actually a part of what makes them so good. When they settle for midrange shots, they look putrid on offense. But when they swing the ball and attack the rim and don’t take the first shot that becomes available to them, they generate good looks from all over the court – some at the basket, some from deep, and some in between. Those are the games they are at their best.

Not taking bad shots is good. The Pacers only take good threes. Yes, running the sets necessary to take a few more shots from the outside wouldn’t hurt. It would probably help. But the Pacers offense is fine despite the fact that they will shoot fewer threes than just about any team this season. They just can’t settle for shots.

The Turner/Sabonis experiment is ongoing… and it’s going better

Before the season, Nate McMillan talked about how he believed two big man lineups would rule the Eastern Conference in a post-LeBron James world.

But then just a few days before opening night, McMillan pivoted and said we won’t see that as much as he previously said. He claimed he would only play them together if the matchup allowed it to happen, similar to what happened last season:

Conflicting narratives made it hard to predict just how much we might see Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner together. Through seven games, we have a decent feel for the number of minutes they are going to play simultaneously.

So far, the duo has touched the court together for 25 minutes, roughly 3 minutes per game. However, they haven’t played together in every game – they have only done so in five games so far. So in the games they do suit up together, it happens for about five minutes per game.

In those 25 minutes, the Pacers are a -6, which is… fine. They have an 81 offensive rating, dropping in 38 points on 47 possessions. That is bad. Their defensive rating is just a hair under 98. That is good.

You can tell the team has two centers on the floor. The spacing is a little tight and the Pacers struggle to get open shots. They are shooting 41.67 percent on two-point shots with the duo on the floor and 23.08 percent on three-pointers. Those numbers are bad, but they are also going to regress upward, somewhat.

As the offensive improves, hopefully, the defense can stay about as good as it has been. These groups aren’t allowing anything inside the arc (opponents are shooting just 43.33 percent on twos) but they can’t defend the perimeter well and are conceding 41.67 percent on three-pointers. That isn’t like to change, so optimistically an offensive improvement can keep this group buoyant in the minimal time they have together.

Five minutes per game doesn’t sound like much, but it took less than that time for the Blazers and Timberwolves benches to sink the Pacers. If this duo can succeed when the bench is struggling, that is important for the team. Both for the now and for the future.

The Indiana Pacers have a top-10 defense

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pacers finish the season with a top-5 defense, but as it stands now, I think we can say for sure they are and will be, a top-10 defensive team.

They are currently 10th in defensive rating at 105.7, and they have the personnel to make that number rise (the ranking, not the rating). Victor Oladipo is obviously one of the best defensive guards in the league. Turner’s defense looks even better than it did last year thanks to all that yoga he did in the summer. He is nimble and quick while he roams the paint.

Tyreke Evans has proven to be a solid-enough perimeter defender. Cory Joseph is always a pest. Domantas Sabonis is keeping up with the game better, and thus protecting the rim a bit better. Thaddeus Young is a master on the defensive end.

All of that put together is yielding an excellent product. The Pacers are swarming teams and stopping everyone, sans a Bucks team hyped up by a new arena opening. The Pacers defense will carry them this season, and it will create some easy opportunities for their offense.

These figures all are things to keep an eye on for the Indiana Pacers as the season goes along. There is still a lot of basketball left to be played, but the Pacers are starting to reveal who they are.