Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers agreed on a 4-year deal to keep him in Indiana. We gather the 8 Points, 9 Seconds roundtable to break it down.
The Indiana Pacers just signed Myles Turner to a 4-year, $72 million extension. What’s your initial reaction to the news?
Will Furr: I like it even more now that I know it’s $72 million base compensation, rather than 80 as Shams initially reported. I’m fine with the deal. I think it lands in the sweet spot of “feels a little high based on current production but could be much higher if they wait”. Turner by all appearances likes it here in Indy, and we know how hurt the fanbase was when PG wanted to leave.
Pritchard seems to have made it at least a minor priority to obtain and retain guys who wanna be here, and that’s Myles.
Aaron Eamer: The initial $80m wasn’t a deal I was shocked at. Someone was gonna pay Myles and he’s still a project the Pacers like. We’re a team that needs to develop through the draft and Turner has shown he wants to take the sort of steps Oladipo has done. OKC was shot down for giving him $21 million a year and look where he got.
The initial $80m wasn’t a deal I was shocked at. Someone was gonna pay Myles and he’s still a project the Pacers like. — Aaron Eamer
Now, I see it’s $72 million instead, makes me look at Myles in a more positive light too. He isn’t just in it for him, he wants to see this team get there.
Ryan Eggers: Deals like these are always going to be a bit speculative – but this has the potential to be one of the most important moves in this new Pacers era. Let’s say in our reasonable best case scenario that Turner becomes the All-Star he’s been hyped up to be.
That means the two cornerstones of this team are locked in at a combined $41 million over the next few years. That gives the Pacers a ton of flexibility to attract a third star through free agency over the next 2 summers, and by that point, well, we may see a legit Finals contender.
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If Turner doesn’t pan out, and just gives the amount of production we’ve seen the past 2 seasons, it’s a bit of an overpay, but not by that much — a young big who’s a top 5 shot blocker and can shoot the 3 on the other end will always be valuable. Maybe not $18-$20 million a year valuable, but not to the point where you’re losing sleep over his contract.
Furr: Even if Myles had the exact same numbers (for a third straight year) someone would’ve offered him more than 4/72 during next year’s cap space extravaganza. The Pacers paid a reasonable price to retain a good player, and 18 million a year is totally reasonable for an above average starter.
It’s a good deal as long as he improves even incrementally throughout the life of it, and he’ll only be 27(?) when it ends. If it doesn’t work or the Pacers want to go a different direction, I’d imagine there to be plenty of bidders for a 20-something-year-old 3 point shooting, shot blocking center. I don’t advocate trading him, to be clear – but I think the market would be there unless he totally fell apart
Ben Gibson: For perspective, Evan Fournier, Tristan Thompson, Draymond Green, Kent Bazemore, and Evan Turner are getting paid roughly $17 million this season. Outside of Green, you could question if the others are worth that much to their team.
What does this mean for Domantas Sabonis?
Furr: So, the question that seems to be on every Pacers fan’s mind right now: What does this mean for Sabonis and his future with the blue and gold?
Tony East: I think the answer is nothing.
Eggers: I think everyone sort of knew that Turner was going to be a part of the equation, regardless of whether Sabonis will be or not. It was doubtful that Turner was going to be completely thrown away in the free agent market or via trade, so this more confirms that than changes the dynamic of the situation.
Assuming Sabonis stays on his current path, the Pacers will have to sink a lot of money into one position to retain both guys long-term. We haven’t really seen the two be able to play significant, effective minutes together on the court, but that could change. I’d say that the extension mostly means nothing, but if Sabonis and Turner can’t fit together in the starting lineup by May, I don’t see Sabonis as a Pacer long-term. But that’s an issue that was present with or without this extension.
Furr: I’d agree with Tony; the answer (at least right now) is nothing. Big picture, I actually think it’s a good thing for Sabonis. Showing some commitment to youth is a welcome sign. While Ryan is right, we haven’t seen these guys play together effectively, it’s only been a year.
The jury is still very out on their pairing, and I’m very in on it. I think it can work beautifully. — Will Furr
Not only that, but Sabonis proved to be a *very* different player than the one the Pacers looked to be acquiring. This was their first real summer together, and definitely the first with full knowledge of who Domas Sabonis was as an NBA player.
The jury is still very out on their pairing, and I’m very in on it. I think it can work beautifully
Tony East: I see no issue with Sabonis and Turner co-existing. At the worst one starts and one doesn’t. They seem like they both have the personality to not care. They know Nate runs lineups matchup dependant down the stretch.
Eggers: How much would you be comfortable paying Sabonis if his future with the Pacers is at the backup 5, though? And is that number anywhere close to what he could fetch from another team in 2020?
East: I’m going to pay him for his production, not his role. ill give him a season to determine what that value would be.
Furr: Marcus Smart just got $13 million a year. This market was terribly depressed, but no one knows how the market will be in 2020 after teams make fools of themselves again next year. I think 13-15 is totally reasonable for a 6th man, and I’d be fine with Sabonis getting that (assuming he progresses anywhere near like he did last year).
However, I don’t think he needs to be a backup 5. That’s my point of contention. I think there’s a real future where he plays 5 on offense and 4 on defense while Myles does the opposite. Their skill sets can be dynamite together if the Pacers give them the space and opportunity to work.
Gibson: I’m a bit more bearish on them playing together. What about the past has you believing that the Pacers can get them to work together?
Furr: Nothing about the past. They came into last year with no familiarity whatsoever. Sabonis was coming off a very bad year of being misused in OKC. While we all wanted to see more of the pairing last year, they just didn’t have a ton of time to spend together before the Pacers were in the thick of it. Turner missed some time throughout and never looked comfortable himself, and Sabonis carved out a role with the 2nd unit (it was unclear if he’d even earn playing time prior to the year).
Hoops Habit
My point being, there’s only so much you can do in season. Now that Nate knows who both of these guys are (and they both know who they are and who each other is), it’s a whole different ballgame, so to speak.
These guys are talented, young, they appear to like each other and actively want to make it work playing together, and most importantly — their skill sets complement each other. With a major exception of lateral quickness (no argument that that will be an issue that requires working around), they cover for a lot of each other’s weaknesses. Add in the fact that they both shot 35% from deep last year, and it only gets better.
It’s often missed that Sabonis was a better 3 point shooter than Thad Young last year. If anything, the Pacers spacing would improve with him being out there with Turner.
The defensive questions certainly linger, but I think we saw Nate isn’t afraid of letting Sabonis swing out of his league a bit — he spent enough time on LeBron in the playoffs that I have faith Nate will let him try.
How does this affect the Pacers future plans?
Gibson: Looking towards the future, if Turner gets to an All-Star level, can the Pacers still sign Sabonis and a free agent that could truly turn them into a contender?*
Furr: Can the Pacers sign a difference-making free agent? Sure. That doesn’t happen all that often. Maybe Victor Oladipo and his love of Indiana can act as a recruiting agent that Paul George never could. If Myles Turner becomes a borderline All-Star and Sabonis continues to develop, this team becomes mighty attractive to a lot of free agents. With Bird rights on Sabonis, the Pacers can afford to sign someone next year, then sign Sabonis after.
That all depends on someone wanting to come to Indiana, though. Snagging high tier free agents is not exactly a Pacers tradition, which is why the Sabonis/Turner fit is even more important. If the Pacers are going to win, it’s probably going to have to be with the talent they develop.
Gibson: A lot of that depends on what they do this season. If Indiana is going to snag a top or second-tier free agent, they have to make a run in the playoffs. With LeBron James out of the Eastern Conference and the West loaded, the Pacers might strike gold if they look like their a player away from making the Finals.
I wouldn’t rule out Kevin Pritchard making a move with some of the veteran expiring contracts. Contenders might want a solid starter like Darren Collison and non-contenders might value Collison’s expiring $10M deal.
This signing, unfortunately, makes me question what Thaddeus Young’ future is with the Pacers.
Ethan Krieger: I definitely think there’s still room for the Pacers to build around Oladipo and Turner, keep Sabonis, and add a guy that’s able to get the team to the next level. It’s Indiana, so it’s not going to be a super splashy acquisition, but I’m still holding out that a player like Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton will catch wind of what the Pacers have going on in Indiana and will want to join in.
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Say you snag one of those guys to add to the core, then one of your young guards, Sumner or Holiday, step up to fill the potentially vacant spot at point guard if there’s no cap space left to retain Collison or Joseph. Dipo/Turner/Sabonis combined with the possibility of a Harris/Middleton-type and a rising young guard sounds pretty exciting to me. And as mentioned above, Sabonis doesn’t even necessarily need to be a starter in this scenario if we learn he and Turner really can’t co-exist.
I’m fine paying him a decent chunk of money to anchor the bench and get a double-double every night. He’d still be on the floor plenty to warrant a decent contract, in my opinion.
Gibson: Not to get too far in the weeds on this, but a lot of what the Warriors and other superteams are doing now is a combination of luck and good timing as far as contracts, cap smoothing, etc. Would Indiana be able to build a 2005 Detriot Pistons-like title team once the market gets closer to normalizing in a few years? Is a team like that the template? Is this what Kevin Pritchard is thinking?
Krieger: Hmm, that’s an interesting thought. I mean, I doubt Pritchard specifically has the 2005 Pistons in mind (but who knows), but I like the comparison. Obviously, the team Indiana would wind up with in this scenario isn’t a direct mirror of that Pistons team, but it would be similar in the sense that it’s a team that’s built on hard workers that are all accepting of their roles and do what they need to do to win, bottom line.
Like, clearly Myles Turner is a way bigger outside threat than what Ben Wallace ever even believed was possible for a starting center, but I can see what you’re saying here. It might not necessarily be a team of superstars that ultimately dethrone Golden State, but maybe a team of great players that execute their roles to a T.
I like those comparisons, specifically Victor being a leveled-up Hamilton. If we can get TJ Leaf to bleach his hair, we might be able to pass him off as Darko, though I sure hope his career turns out better. — Ethan Krieger
Gibson: Sabonis and Turner can be the evolved Wallace ‘Brothers’. Oladipo is a leveled-up Rip Hamilton. I don’t know who ends up being Darko, though.
Krieger: I like those comparisons, specifically Victor being a leveled-up Hamilton. If we can get TJ Leaf to bleach his hair, we might be able to pass him off as Darko, though I sure hope his career turns out better.
Gibson: Darko owns a commercial farm in Serbia now. Indiana has plenty of corn fields. We can make this all work.
Furr: That Pistons team is definitely what every team lacking a top 5 guy looks at the end of the day, hoping and crossing fingers that they can replicate that lightning strike. I think — assuming that both Turner and Sabonis develop, and guys like T.J. Leaf/Edmond Sumner/Aaron Holiday are useful players — the Pacers would still be 1 upper echelon signing away.
The team will need a Chauncey Billups. They’ll need some kind of grizzled vet/leader, who also happens to be around an all-star level. I’m not sure what Tobias Harris is/isn’t as far as leadership goes, but the Pacers could absolutely use a player like him, and getting someone with his high-level swiss army like skills could put the team over the hump (if almost everything else goes right along the way)
Betting on Myles Turner’s Future
Gibson: Shifting back to Turner, where do you see his career going? I don’t think anyone sees him flaming out, but if you had to bet on where he’s going as a player in the next few years, what do you picture?
Eggers: I don’t know. I think last season was supposed to be “the year” for him and while he was slightly derailed by injuries, he’s pretty definitively below the fellow star big men of his draft class at this point (KAT, Porzingis). I certainly haven’t lost hope yet, but I think I need a season of improved footwork and an elite big man three point shot for me to be fully back on the hype train.
Krieger: For me, it’s so hard to predict. Honestly, I just don’t know. His ceiling is very high, as we all know, but he’s not getting there as quickly as a lot of people expected. Still, he’s VERY young, and in no way do I think it’s too late for him to make a big, impactful jump. If any fan base should believe this, it’s Pacers fans.
Victor Oladipo seemed to kind of plateau before he absolutely exploded last season. Myles has seemingly put in the work this offseason to do the same. This upcoming year will be incredibly interesting to watch what he’s bringing to the table now. He’s got the tools to be an all-star, all-defense type guy. Might not ever happen, but I won’t be surprised if it does.
Furr: I think Myles has a leap coming, and soon. I’m not sure he’s going to be an All-Star, but I think he can be a top 10ish center. My expectations are starting to lower, which means this will be the year I’m proven wildly wrong. I’m not mad about it though
Krieger: Even if there’s never a MASSIVE leap, he’ll likely steadily improve just based solely on experience and aging closer to his prime years. He’s already a good player, and even if he’s never an all-star, his skill set is one that will keep him relevant for his entire contract extension. He’s worth keeping around in my opinion for sure, because of the upside, sure, but also for what he already is right now and will continue to mature into.