Domantas Sabonis still has two years left on his current contract. What could his next deal look like for the Indiana Pacers?
After the Paul George trade last summer, Indiana Pacers fans were asking mostly one question about Domantas Sabonis “is he good”?
The tables have turned. Just over a year later, that question has pivoted to “How good can Domas be?” He has posted a double-double in all three of the Pacers preseason games so far. He gels with every player on the roster. He has tons of high-level skills as a post player. And he is only entering his third season, meaning he could still improve.
With increased on-court production comes an increased salary. Sabonis is currently on his rookie deal, but eventually, that will end. Just how high can his next deal get? Let’s take a look at his financial situation.
Domantas Sabonis’ Current Contract
Sabonis is currently on his rookie contract, which had its value determined before he was even selected.
As the No. 11 pick in the 2016 draft by the Orlando Magic (technically), Sabonis earned a four-year, $11,179,555 contract to start off his career. That is the contract he is currently entering the third season of.
Because his contract is a rookie scale deal, it comes with some caveats, though most of them have passed. The third and fourth seasons of Sabonis’ deal were team options, meaning if he didn’t perform well early in the deal those options could have been declined before the contract ended, thus ending it early. The Pacers picked up the third year option last summer, and as we learned recently, they picked up his fourth year team option as well, meaning he will earn the full $11.2 million that was laid out earlier.
That move was clearly going to happen. The Pacers want to keep Sabonis around for a long time, and picking up that option gives them Sabonis for an extra season before he enters restricted free agency in the summer of 2020. Then, they have to pay him to keep him.
What contract comes next for Domantas Sabonis?
You know what makes this harder to determine? Myles Turner.
Say Turner makes a huge jump this season and pulls like $20 million per year on his next contract. That doesn’t prevent Indiana from paying Sabonis, you should always pay your good players. But it would make it harder to stomach paying Sabonis big money too, as the Pacers would be paying huge money to the center position.
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I still think the Pacers are willing to pay both, and will if needed. But the fact that they both play the same position makes it very challenging to see what deals could be headed their way.
Sabonis will be a restricted free agent in the summer of 2020, assuming that the Pacers offer him his $4,831,961 qualifying offer (spoiler: they will). A qualifying offer is a one year deal at that dollar amount. If Sabonis isn’t getting any deals he likes in restricted free agency, he could opt to take the qualifying offer, play on it for one season, and then go get more money the following summer (2021) when he is an unrestricted free agent.
Once a qualifying offer is offered to Sabonis, he would enter restricted free agency. He would be free to go pursue deals from whatever team he wants, but the Pacers would have match rights, meaning that they could match any deal that Sabonis signs with another team. If the Pacers want to keep Sabonis in 2020 and beyond, they will.
It is beneficial for the Pacers to negotiate with Sabonis on their own terms instead of matching a deal on another teams terms. They can make the deal more team friendly and still give Sabonis what he wants while also doing good by his agent, Jason Ranne. It’s the perfect situation.
If Sabonis continues to make bounds of improvement, perhaps a 5 year. $60-80 million deal makes sense (depending on how much he improves). I would say that is fair money for the insane production he offers in the post – both off the bench and occasionally as a starter.
What do I think comes next for Domantas Sabonis financially?
The Pacers love Sabonis, and I am very confident they will do whatever they can to keep him.
If he doesn’t improve at all from where he is right now, he is probably somewhere between an 8 million to 12 million dollar per year player. But assuming he won’t improve at all from season to season is foolish.
He could get that number up to 15 or even 20 million by 2020 if everything goes how he wants. That would make him eligible for a huge deal in restricted free agency. But being restricted usually suppresses a players value slightly. My official guess for Sabonis’ next deal is 4 years, $60 million.
Rookie scale contracts are the best, aren’t they? Sabonis is making a fraction of what he is worth as it stands. and that helps the Pacers add other free agents. Once its time to pay him, Sabonis has earned the right to be paid and the team will take care of him. He has a bright future.