Contracts can be confusing. To help make them easier, we will break down the monetary situation of every player on the Indiana Pacers roster and what to expect going forward. In this edition, we take a look at Doug McDermott.
When the Indiana Pacers jumped all over Doug McDermott in the first moments of free agency, most fans were perplexed.
With nearly every free agent still available, snagging McDermott early on seemed like a desperate move. But that is more due to the nature of McDermott’s career than anything else. Drafted 11th in 2014, McDermott’s expectations were that of a lottery pick. Unfortunately, he is not a game-changing talent, and not meeting expectations makes basketball fanatics think lowly of you no matter what the results you produce are.
But McDermott is a skilled basketball player, and the Pacers paid him as such. He doesn’t massively change the scope of the team, but he improves the roster in a meaningful way and adds a shooting element they have been lacking. Let’s get into the financial situation of McDermott, one of the best outside shooters in the world.
Doug McDermott’s current contract
If you’ll recall, McDermott inked a three-year, $22 million contract basically the first night of NBA free agency.
This deal seemed like an overpay to many (myself included) at first. But after some close analysis and critical thinking, we can see how the Pacers and McDermott agreed upon the value they did.
First of all, the salary cap is expected to vault up roughly $7 million next season. That is basically the amount McDermott is making next season. If you want to think of it this way, you could say that the cap jump is paying for McDermott, thus making his deal “free” next summer.
The other notable reason that McDermott got about $7 million per year was noted by Zach Lowe:
A way to look at deals like this: Unless Year 3 has a partial guarantee, Pacers are paying McD about $5M more than he could have gotten on taxpayer mid-level over 3 years. That is going to be the ceiling -- the deal teams w/ more to offer have to beat -- for lots of guys. https://t.co/1WfCdtY4Gs
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) July 1, 2018
Because of the way the free agency landscape was this summer, acquiring good players often meant paying slightly more than the taxpayer mid-level exception to snag them away from other teams. The Indiana Pacers did exactly that, and now they have one of the best outside shooters in the league.
What contract comes next for Doug McDermott?
This is harder to say since we have no idea how McD is going to perform over the next three seasons.
However, we can guesstimate. McDermott is 26 now, meaning he will be 29 when his current contract expires. 29 is usually around the age that players cash in on their last big contract, and McDermott could be in the same boat.
But McDermott is different in that his most marketable skill is one that doesn’t typically dimish with age. If you can shoot, you can shoot. Kyle Korver has been getting paid into his late 30s for this reason. Because of this, you can expect McDermott to get another decent contract when he turns 29.
If he can hone some other skills in his next trio of seasons, it isn’t unreasonable to think McDermott could pull in a three-year, $30-35 million deal in the summer of 2021. If he remains only effective as a shooter, he will still likely be able to get a longer deal, just with fewer dollars. Perhaps a three-year deal worth between $20-25 million could come next for him.
Again, it’s impossible to guess since it is three seasons away. But McD has an important skill, and he will be paid to do it for the entirety of his career.
What do I think comes next for McDermott financially?
Personally, I would guess that McDermott’s next contract is about the same as his current one.
From age 22 to 26, McDermott made the improvements you want youthful players to make (general positioning and keeping up with the game). But his improvements in key skill areas were lacking outside of his shooting, and I am skeptical he takes a major step forward in any important areas over the next three seasons.
His defense will probably only marginally improve, his cutting probably won’t substantially improve, and it is unlikely his ball handling and shot creation get much better. Because of this, 29-year-old McDermott seems like he will be approximately the same player as 26-year-old McDermott.
All that being said leads me to believe that 29-year-old McDermott receives another three-year deal around $25 million. Who knows if it will be with the Pacers or someone else.
With Doug McDermott, you know exactly what you are getting. He’s an awesome shooter and smart player, he’s just too ground bound to be a monumental difference maker. He is paid fairly for his skills and should help improve the bench offense for the Indiana Pacers this coming season.