Indiana Pacers Love/Hate Series: Doug McDermott

The Indiana Pacers made their first major move in free agency soon after the midnight opening on July 1, signing Doug McDermott to a 3-year, $22 million deal. While McDermott is famous for his 3-point marksmanship, he brings a lot more to love (and to hate) in this upcoming season.

While the rest of the NBA world refreshed their computers as they awaited the new (or not so new) destinations for superstars like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, the Indiana Pacers began their quietly solid offseason right at the stroke of midnight. Very soon after, Pacers fans had their first drop of real free agency news amidst the wave of rumors that had been crashing into Twitter for weeks. They had acquired Doug McDermott.

By the time the dust had settled, the reviews on McDermott were a bit mixed, with enthusiasm on one side and hesitation on the other. After being drafted by the Nuggets at No. 11 overall in 2014, McDermott hasn’t been able to settle in any particular city throughout his NBA career.

The Bulls immediately traded him on draft night (the Bulls traded up for him, giving away the No. 16 and 19 picks, which ended up being… Jusuf Nurkić and Gary Harris), and Douggie began bouncing around NBA teams during his third year in the league.

Which brings us to today. At 26 years old, the Pacers are McDermott’s fifth team (sixth if you count the Nuggets) in his soon-to-be five years in the NBA. On the cusp of being a perennial journeyman, the Pacers offered him a reasonable three-year deal worth a total of $22 million.

$22 million isn’t a light investment, especially considering that McDermott is on the books for the next three years. He’s currently the only player on the roster other than Victor Oladipo who is penciled in for the 2020 season.

If things don’t work out and McDermott isn’t a glove fit for the Pacers, they’ll be scrambling to pass that contract off to someone else.

But there may be a reason to believe this is the franchise a guy like McDermott has been waiting for. Here’s a reminder of the stops on Dougie’s journey so far: struggling Bulls, Russell Westbrooks (the 2016-17 season was not fun for anyone else on that team), the recently awful Knicks and the Mavericks. He hasn’t necessarily been on an offense that can cater to his strengths.

And his strength is a big one. McDermott finished his 2017-18 season out last year with the Mavericks, and he shot, wait for it, 49.4% from deep with a 61.1 TS% in 26 games. He’s one of the best deep threats in the league, and even his array of awkward team fits hasn’t stopped him from shooting over 40% from the arc for his career.

His shooting isn’t all there is to love, though. And on the other side of the coin, everything won’t be smooth sailing for McDermott and the Pacers either. He has strengths and weaknesses in his game, and the Pacers need to know how to best utilize him on the bench if they want their money to be well spent.

What we love about Doug McDermott

Everyone knows why McDermott is here. Despite the Indiana Pacers locking in a spot as a top 10 3-point shooting team last year, they were bottom five in 3-point shots attempted, largely because of the lack of options off the bench.

Some of their best raw shooters (T.J. Leaf, Joe Young) couldn’t get on the court because of defensive issues, Cory Joseph shot 35% and could still be expected to regress (he’s a 32.9% career shooter from deep) and Glenn Robinson III is no longer on the team.

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That bench needs more scoring, and Pritchard made it obvious that 3-point shooting was high on his list of priorities this offseason. His four most impactful moves make that clear: drafting Aaron Holiday (shot 42.9% from behind the arc in his final season at UCLA), signing Tyreke Evans (40% from deep with the Grizzlies), declining to pick up Lance Stephenson (shot 28.9% from deep on 2.8(!) shots a game) and of course, inking McDermott for a 3-year deal, who should have the greatest immediate impact on floor spacing.

It’s not just about McDermott’s pure numbers either, which are already fantastic. It’s about his presence and the way in which he can get those buckets.

McDermott will likely start most plays in the corner, automatically ensuring one guy doesn’t stray too far from him, leaving the Pacers a bit of room to work with on the baseline between the basket and Dougie’s defender.

His rotations around the perimeter will keep the defense honest, and for the first time in a very long time for this Indiana Pacers team, they might actually see some decent floor spacing from their bench unit.

He doesn’t just shoot threes, either. He takes advantage of the space he creates and can occasionally drive to the tin as well:

But McDermott’s abilities won’t just benefit himself — Domantas Sabonis is one player in particular who may be able to be even more assertive without the congestion in the paint that came from a lack of shooters last season.

And when Sabonis (or in this case, Kyle O’Quinn) does draw attention inside, all he has to do is this:

If McDermott plays as advertised, he’ll be the piece that this bench needs. Between the shooting, floor spacing and constant perimeter threat he brings to the court, he can liven up an offense that already had many beautiful moments last year.

What we hate about Doug McDermott

McDermott is a specialist and will very much likely fulfill his role in at least some satisfying capacity.

Still, though, there is a lot to be desired from the former lottery pick. Inconsistency has plagued his time as an NBA player – while he certainly hasn’t been on many competitive teams in his career, there’s something to be said that he’s been an expendable piece of every team he’s been on despite his excellent marksmanship.

His shooting hasn’t always been consistent either. While he’s always been able to maintain an elite percentage (except in his 2016-17 season when he dipped well below 40%), the areas in which he’s sinking shots has been spotty.

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For example, between the Mavericks and Knicks last year, McDermott shot an impressive 50.9% from the corner three spot. Glenn Robinson III, Damien Wilkins, and even Darren Collison occupied a corner three role at times last season, but McDermott’s numbers at his volume last season would be a major positive change for the Pacers.

During his Bulls days, though, that corner three figure was 40.2%. Sure, he was just getting his feet under him in the league, but he did play a full four years at Creighton.

Then during his short stint in Oklahoma City, that corner three number dropped to 35.3%. Neither of those numbers would make McDermott much of a threat at all from the corner, which is one of the key areas the Indiana Pacers need him to be dominant in.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Look at this table and try to find any sort of consistency over McDermott’s four years of professional play. He doesn’t always have it, even though when he is on he’s really on. It’s good when he hits high highs, but it won’t be pretty to see his low lows.

Again, it’s possible that much of this can be explained merely by the teams he played on and the offensive opportunity (or lack thereof) he was given, but with all of the volatility McDermott has experienced in his young NBA career, it’s impossible to predict just how well McDermott will mesh with the Indiana Pacers.

This distinction matters, too — the difference between McDermott as a good shooter and McDermott as an elite shooter is essentially the difference between him getting NBA minutes and him being shipped off to his next destination before February.

This distinction matters, too — the difference between McDermott as a good shooter and McDermott as an elite shooter is essentially the difference between him getting NBA minutes and him being shipped off to his next destination before February.

And although much of McDermott’s value and the reason he’s in Indiana is tied to his shooting, he still will have to be on the floor during defensive possessions, too. And he is not a good defender, by any metric. His career average in defensive box score plus/minus is a -2.3. That matches Joe Young’s score from last season and approaches T.J. Leaf’s. Yeah, that’s not good.

He just isn’t a comfortable defender. Take a quick look at what a simple screen does to McDermott’s composure and footwork. He’s out of position and chasing with no chance of stopping his opponent.

Players feast on McDermott in one-on-one situations – he just doesn’t have NBA level defensive instincts. Given his struggles on that end of the floor, it will take a lot of elite shooting on the other end to justify his contract. He has shown that ability and will have likely the best team fit in his career, but if he ever gets cold from deep, there’s going to be a lot to hate (see: Bojan Bogdanovic from last December).

Doug McDermott’s role for the upcoming season

McDermott has one of clearest roles on the team for 2018-19. Get out there for around 20-25 minutes a game, keep the defense anxious about the perimeter for every second you’re on offense, and drain some threes. If he does that an elite level, he’ll have an excellent season and will be a key factor in the Indiana Pacers’ playoff hopes.

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He may get cold at times, and will almost certainly make a few infuriating plays on defense this year. But if he stays sharp enough to space the floor when the bench unit is out, his contract will be more than worth it.

It’s a long time coming for McDermott to finally see a team that will embrace his talents. Fizzled hype and trades have been his claim to fame so far in his journey, but he possesses the most important skill in the modern NBA. If his defensive game could get a little bit of attention as well, McDermott could really shine in the blue and gold.

Don’t expect an Oladipo or Sabonis-esque leap – McDermott is older than both and went to college for four years, so there likely isn’t a significant improvement on the horizon for him. But he brings legit talent to the bench and will likely be young enough and good enough from deep to remain useful for the Pacers throughout his contract (cough cough, Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey).

Pritchard and Co. were obviously excited to get him as their first free agent haul of 2018. In a couple short months, everyone else will see if they made the right bet. Doug McDermott will be a fun guy to watch for the Indiana Pacers.