No NBA player is perfect, they all have their strengths and weaknesses. In this love/hate series, we will review those attributes for each player on the Indiana Pacers. In this installment, we will take a look at T.J Leaf.
This may be unfair to say of a second-year player, but the 2018-19 season might end up being one of T.J. Leaf’s most crucial. The 18th pick in the 2017 draft has shown flashes for the Indiana Pacers. After one highly productive year at UCLA, Leaf was looked at as a stretch big who was far from a finished product. Coming into last year it was understood he would need at least a year to work on his 225-pound frame and get used to the speed of the game.
His most likely ally and now most pressing enemy is time.
After an underwhelming summer league that saw the UCLA product slash .364/.200/.636 and scoring only 12.5 ppg while hauling in 5.5 rebounds per game, Leaf is falling behind. Kevin Pritchard’s savvy off-season has Indy in the driver’s seat to compete at the top of the East. With that being said, without any real improvement Leaf could fall out of the rotation once again.
Although the sped up timeline for T.J may work against him, he should have every chance to play a role in this upcoming season. Pritchard has long acknowledged Indy’s need for a true stretch four and Leaf fits that description to a T.
Yes, Leaf could struggle to find his footing again and get benched in lieu of a more ready Kyle O’Quinn. Yes, his summer league may have sent some into a panic. But I’m not worried and here’s why.
What we love about T.J. Leaf
Let’s start with what got him here. He’s a shooter. At 6’10 and mobile Leaf should have no problems finding shots. He’s both a spot-up weapon and a pick and pop machine. After shooting a healthy 42.9% from deep in his first season, Leaf can be the stretch big that is so important in today’s wide open game.
While he may never develop himself into a 1 on 1 threat, T.J won’t have to (I believe this is a big part of why he struggled to find himself during summer league). Being the 3rd-5th option on the court should allow Leaf to play to his strengths without having to do too much. Even though he’s still so young, Leaf will most likely never be able to create much for himself. But playing alongside the likes of Tyreke Evans and Domantas Sabonis should go a long way in helping him find his comfort zone.
His feel for the game and straight line athleticism is NBA ready as well. Although his decision-making process will need to speed up a bit, Leaf has shown he can make the right play. While he won’t break the defense down off the dribble, the thing that may excite me the most is his ability to attack hard closeouts.
He’s a shooter first, but his drives to the rim can open up his game even more. Not to mention at only 21 years old and a full year under his belt, I expect his improvements to be noticeable.
What We Hate About T.J Leaf
As good as Leaf’s shooting is, his defense is equally as bad. It’s no secret Leaf has to improve on that end and he now needs to do it in a hurry. Generally, the youth card would be a good one to play, but with Kyle O’Quinn and now Alize Johnson here to push for minutes his defensive awareness has to improve.
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Once again, his physical profile will most likely never get to the standard of a good defender. He’s not very long and his lateral quickness is suspect on it’s best day. This leaves Leaf with a very slim margin for error on that end of the floor. The one area outside of conditioning that he could really make up for his lack of physical gifts is his awareness. T.J was laughably lost at times last season, but somewhat understandably so. Rookies often struggle to adapt to the speed of the game in their first year, but that won’t, better yet that can’t, be an excuse this year.
I still hold out hope that he can make major strides mainly because of how well Indy’s system allows sub-par defenders to look at least average (Bojan Bogdanovic). His internal clock needs to tick a bit faster and his understanding of rotations and pick and roll coverage needs improvement, but that just takes time and after a year to learn that should be enough to make a difference.
Although T.J is game ready offensively, for the most part, his playmaking and finishing still need to make significant strides. He actually surprised me with his ability to get to the rim and make tough layups, but he’ll need to finish with more dunks and trips to the free throw line to truly blossom as an offensive weapon.
Another underdeveloped part of Leaf’s offensive game is his playmaking. Of the 509 players that registered an assist last year, T.J finished 502nd with only 0.7 assists per-36 minutes. In short, that is bad.
T.J Leaf’s role for the upcoming season
I fully expect the young power forward to start the season as Thad Youngs back-up. Yes, I hear the “T.J Leaf is not a good player crowd”. But, he’s going to get another shot at meaningful minutes just as he did last year. The Pacers need volume shooting and while they look to have improved that issue with the Doug McDermott/Tyreke Evans signings, Leaf would only further improve their lack of 3-point volume.
Of the three possible backup bigs to play beside Domas off the bench, T.J fits the best on paper. He gives the Pacers two high-level shooters in the second unit to give Sabonis and Tyreke the space they need to create for themselves and others. I expect Leaf to play between 10-15 behind Thad to start the year. But, if he shows a lack of awareness on defense and limited playmaking again on offense, his minutes may fade fast.
Next: Indiana Pacers Love/Hate Series: Darren Collison
That being said I have a feeling T.J Leaf may surprise a few people this year and maybe even himself. Hopefully, he can, for the Indiana Pacers sake.