Amidst a year of interesting and complex narratives for the Pacers, Myles Turner didn’t churn out as many headlines as many hoped. How did his 2017-18 season come together, and what does it mean for the future?
Before the trade heard ’round the world set forth the path for the 2017-18 Pacers, with Victor Oladipo’s emergence as an All-Star and Domantas Sabonis as a bright young big, Myles Turner had a case for the greatest storyline of the year. The No. 11 pick in 2015 likely has the highest ceiling of any player on the team and was meant to take over as the team’s leader after the Paul George era.
Of course, Oladipo decided to take the team for himself. Turner was injury-stricken early on and never lived out his expected potential this season, dipping well below his averages last year in most counting stats. At no point did Turner seem like much of a leader this year, nor did he take many games over as “the guy” on offense.
It isn’t necessary for Turner to have those traits and abilities to be a key piece on this roster. In fact, with the emergence of Oladipo, it may be a good thing that Turner fits well in a secondary role. But Turner still has to prove he can do a few more things before he solidifies himself as a cornerstone piece of this rebuild. Unfortunately, he came up short more often than he proved himself this year.
That all could have been made moot if Turner showed himself to be a force in the playoffs, though. In what was his third playoff series, the big man was hoped by many to be ready to step up and be a major part of their quest to upset the Cleveland Cavaliers. Once again, results were mixed, as Turner scored decently enough and was efficient, yet was often outplayed by his counterpart Domantas Sabonis over the final half of the series.
Moving forward, Turner still has time to morph into the elite big man many thought he could become after his rookie year. Pacers fans saw a few glimpses of that in 2017-18, but they also saw many things he has to improve in before making it to the next level.
The Good
Expectations for Turner are (and should be) higher than anyone on the team not named Victor Oladipo. Still, though, he was a really impactful player despite not meeting/exceeding those expectations. 13 points and six rebounds aren’t half bad for a player on a rookie deal, and being good for two blocks a game helped the Pacers out immensely this year.
However, those stats aren’t new for Turner. What was new for Turner this year was his increase in 3-point shooting and 3-point draining. Most of the talk centered around his entry into stardom has been getting that shot nailed down. While he put up an okay 34.8% from deep last year, he was only taking 1.4 shots a game. To put it a different way, only 13% of his shots were from beyond the perimeter. For a stretch five, that’s not ideal.
This year, though, Turner made a sizable improvement – and it may have something to do with Oladipo. With the third team All-NBA selection’s explosive feet and eye for the rim, defenses have to stay honest on him on switches. This can cause confusion on pick and pops and leave screen-setters like Turner with open looks.
Take this clip for example:
Marc Gasol sees the incoming screen and backs up towards the paint, anticipating an Oladipo drive. He tries to alert Dillon Brooks to switch and stay on Turner, but the combination of his Turner’s screen and Oladipo’s dribble move scares him enough to trail Oladipo on the drive, leaving Turner wide open for three.
This pair worked well all season, as Oladipo finished ninth in PPG off of pick and rolls as the ball handler this year, and Turner finished 4th in PPG off of pick and rolls as the screen man. One thing should be noted, though: Sabonis was 3rd.
This all adds up to Turner shooting 35.7% from deep on 2.4 shots a game. He put up 24.6% of his shots from beyond the arc, which looks a lot more like stretch five numbers.
And while the playoffs were a small seven-game sample size, Turner impressed from deep: 6-13, hitting a few big shots along the way. His shooting inside the arc wasn’t bad either. Here’s the dumb small sample size stat of the day: Turner’s true shooting percentage in the playoffs this year was .698. 69.8 percent!
While Turner needs to develop a few different skills to become a star big man, shooting is arguably the most important one. If he can continue to improve the way he did this season, his shot could be deadly very soon.
The Bad
There isn’t necessarily anything bad about Turner’s season – he put up decent stats and maintained his role as a rim protector. But, for the expectations he’s been given, he hasn’t done a lot of improving since last year or even his rookie season. In fact, he went down in all major counting stats this year.
That can sort of be explained away by his slight decrease in minutes this year, but looking at per 36 numbers is a little worrisome:
Most of his counting stats are basically the same throughout all three seasons of his career. The only thing that has improved reasonably is his three-point percentage – a good place to improve, but not the only facet of Turner’s game that needs work.
And now, Turner isn’t just competing against himself to make the leap he needs to make. Now there’s another talented 22-year old big man on the Pacers roster. And his per 36 numbers put Turner to shame:
Turner isn’t a soft player, but he does still seem to be just a bit awkward and stocky in the paint. He just can’t pull down rebounds and score inside the way other bigs can. Take this clip for example:
Watch this clip four times. Once, watch it focusing on Turner’s upper body movements. Then watch Turner’s feet. Do the same with Sabonis. The differences are subtle, but say a lot about their presence inside. Sabonis looks a lot more comfortable at the rim, quickly setting his feet back into a strong position after his putback. Turner awkwardly gets past his man and then seems to wait for an opportunity rather than take one, all the while having unbalanced footwork. They both miss the shot, of course, but it’s a telling sequence.
Turner has the higher ceiling of the two centers, but there are some things that he can’t take shortcuts on. Sabonis is talented, skilled in the pick and roll, and excellent in the paint, and Turner won’t be able to rest on his 3-point shooting if he can’t get those skills sorted himself.
A gif to describe Myles Turner’s season
There are definitely moments where Turner’s paint presence can feel as clunky as three kids stacked on top of each other in a trench coat, a la Vincent Adultman.
But just like Vincent and his business transactions, Turner got things done when he needed to. But he still has a little bit of growing up to do.
What’s next for Myles Turner?
Turner’s future is certainly in question here in Indiana. He and Sabonis have both proven themselves to have star potential at the five spot, and both have also proven that they don’t play well when they share the floor: the Pacers were -0.9 per 100 possessions with them both on the floor, as opposed to +2.4 with just Turner and +1.1 with just Sabonis.
Not to mention, the Pacers probably can’t afford to keep them both. And they’re both going to get paid fairly soon, with Turner eligible for restricted free agency next summer.
They both played very well, and they both take on the center position differently. As far as “who’s better”, it’s fair to say that it’s probably a push, considering the regular season and playoffs combined. That’s a debate that will surely go on all summer, and likely until one of the players is traded.
Still, Turner’s potential can’t be ignored. If someone was keeping a physical list of 7-footers who can shoot from deep and protect the rim, they’d be wasting paper because it is a really short list. Turner has the skills that could bring the new era of blue and gold to new heights, but he has to do the little things as well. If he can develop a body in the post as well as improve on his 3-ball, he’ll be a threat for years to come.
Next: Thaddeus Young is more than just the glue for the Indiana Pacers
The question is, are the Pacers willing to wait, or will they invest in Sabonis, who’s already more battle-ready in the paint? Only time will tell, and it’s probably the biggest question with this Pacers roster for the foreseeable future.