TJ Leaf’s rookie season caused somewhat of a dichotomy amongst Pacers fans and faithful. Let us look back upon his inaugural season.
“With the 18th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, the Indiana Pacers select… TJ Leaf from the University of California, Los Angeles.”
Once Adam Silver dropped that quote, Pacers fans rushed online to do their research. Who is this Leaf guy? What is he good at? Can he be good someday? What is his ceiling?
One season into his NBA career, we find ourselves asking most of the same questions about TJ Leaf. He played under 500 minutes in total this past year and took only 136 shot attempts. He was axed from the rotation halfway through the season. In the teams first 41 games, Leaf touched the floor in 32 of them. Over the second half of the year, the rookie played in just 21 games.
He got his first big boy playoff minutes with 3:41 of action down the stretch of the Pacers blowout win in Game 6, but he didn’t put up any looks and didn’t actually contribute a single counting stat.
In short, he didn’t really do a lot over the course of the year. But he didn’t get a ton of opportunities to play, either. Let’s look back on Leaf’s inaugural season and see if we can get closer to the answers to the questions surrounding Leaf.
The Good
Leaf showed some flashes of being a good player. The problem is that they came in spurts of individual plays are rarely in a sequence or run of play. Regardless, he did some important things well.
Let’s start with the obvious one: Leaf was a sensational three-point shooter. He hit 42.9 percent of his deep looks, the second highest percentage by a rookie who took 25 or more attempts. He is better than most guys his age at the long ball.
Which is all fine and dandy. It’s promising. But take it with a grain of salt. Every single one of Leaf’s made threes was assisted. All of them. Most of his makes are the product of someone else doing the work and creating the shot for him, and him finishing the play. But that is the good part, Leaf showed that he is already a capable play finisher, especially when that finish is worth three points:
That clip demonstrates something else Leaf is solid at executing: slipping screens. He knows the right time to put on the jets and burst into space, and he gets quite a few open looks because of it.
Leaf also did a great job taking care of the ball. He never really got it, but when he did, he made sure to keep it in the hands of the Indiana Pacers. He had a turnover rate of just 6.5 percent and only gave it up 10 times the entire season.
Leaf does make some positive plays, which bodes well for his future. The things he does well happen to be skills that are emphasized in the modern game (screening, shooting, and taking care of the ball) and that is encouraging.
But there are some bad parts of Leaf, too.
The Bad
Calling TJ Leaf’s defense bad is an insult to the word bad. His defense was atrocious. It was dreadful. It was every synonym for those words.
This is what kept him off the court. He could hang with the Pacers when he was on offense, but he was completely lost on D far too often. Someone needs to get him a map because he needs to find his way on the less glamorous end of the floor.
Leaf just couldn’t keep up with the pro game in his first year. His rotations were often late on help-side defense, and his lack of lateral mobility made him useless on-ball. There weren’t a lot of situations where he made his impact felt.
He does not realize he needs to help on the Tarik Black roll here:
And here, on-ball, the result is… bad:
How do you fall for a fake from *checks notes* Paul Zipser?
A lot of it is that Leaf was a rookie. He will have to figure the game out as he grows and matures. But the early returns suggest he has a long way to go on that end of the floor.
Leaf was just okay on the glass. His rebound rate was 10.1 percent, around the rate of Denzel Valentine and Carmelo Anthony. This wasn’t really his role, but given his height, one would hope he could make his presence more felt on the glass. Maybe calling him bad here is a stretch. Let’s go with underwhelming.
The final weakness of Leaf’s game? Dribbling. His bounces don’t really feel like they are going anywhere. He couldn’t get by much of anyone, even though it looked like that was a skill he had at UCLA. Leaf isn’t particularly strong with the ball either:
Leaf clearly has a lot to work on. But he is a rookie. There is supposed to be more bad than good. Let’s give him two more years before we are too critical of his weaknesses.
A gif to describe TJ Leaf’s season
When people ask me to project out Leaf’s future, I pretty much say “I don’t know”. His future could go in so many directions.
What’s Next?
For TJ Leaf, this is a good question.
The answer probably starts with more minutes. Under 500 minutes is too small of a sample to truly digest what the Pacers have in TJ Leaf. But if Leaf does get more burn, the next steps are obvious.
Leaf has to be better on defense. Even if he never get’s better on the glass or handling the ball, his strong shooting can keep him on the floor offensively. But if he doesn’t take the steps forward on D, it will be impossible for TJ to get minutes and polish his game since he will be an overwhelming negative.
Next: The case against bringing Aaron Gordon to the Indiana Pacers
So after one year of Leaf, we still don’t really know enough about him. Can he be an NBA player someday? If so, is he more Ryan Anderson or is he more Patrick Patterson? His defensive improvements will dictate a lot of the answers to the questions surrounding him. His first season he showed he can play offense. The rest of his game? We just have to wait and see.