Just about everyone will write this series off as a Cleveland Cavalier victory over the Indiana Pacers. And maybe they’re right, Cleveland does have LeBron. But they are far from unbeatable. This is how the Pacers can do it.
On Sunday, the playoffs officially arrive. The Indiana Pacers and the Cleveland Cavaliers, Eastern Conference quarterfinals, game one.
Not exactly the easiest opponent for the Blue-and-Gold, is it? Cleveland is the thrice defending Conference champion. They have the greatest player in the world. And they have an offense, that when clicking, is a nightmare to defend. But, this series won’t be a cakewalk for the Cavs.
Indiana brings spunk talent and the onus to keep shocking the world. It should be a tough, tough series for both teams. Don’t tell that to the majority of everyone who has already be penciling Cleveland into the Eastern Semis. I get that. I do.
But…
What if another improbable twist is added to a season full of them? How many of you, our dear readers, in August, though you’re be reading this article in April? The Pacers have shocked so far, dazzled even, and if they indeed want to keep shocking the world, this is what they need to do.
Attack, attack, attack
The majority of the analysis that you’ll read on this series will focus on the things that Cleveland can do to the Pacers. Understandable, their five-out offense is among the league’s most lethal when it’s hitting. However, it also ignores half of the equation. The Cavaliers also have to figure out a way to stop the Pacers.
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If the Pacers can relentlessly pilfer the less-than-stellar Cavalier defense Indy will have more than a punchers chance in the series. To do this, Indiana will need two components to fire concurrently.
The first is unleashing Victor Oladipo. Vic has done well against the Cavs (25 ppg, 44/47/60 FG/3P/FT, 30.8 USG%, 4.8 REB, 5 AST, plus one steal per game in four games against Cleveland) and he’s entering the playoffs on fire (24.8 ppg, 61/52/69 FG/3P/FT over last eight games minus the Toronto debacle).
Ok, he’s not shooting well from the line, but he’s dialed in from everywhere else. That’s going to continue because Cleveland doesn’t have anyone who can stop him. If Vic can play up to the moment and match 80/85% (or better) of LeBron’s point production, Indiana will be in a great spot.
The second is Vic’s wingmen need to keep raining fire from three. Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison are both having career years, Collison is the most accurate three-point shooter in the league. Lately, both have been dialed in. Bogdanovic has been shooting the most three of the pair (51 to Collison’s 22) and is making 45.1% of them. Collison’s making a middling 63.6% of his attempts. Indy doesn’t have the volume of three-point shooters that Cleveland has, but when they take them, they’ve been hitting them.
Limit LeBron’s merry men
LeBron James is the Cavaliers. He leads them in just about every statistical category that matters. Over the last 21 games, he’s averaging: 30.5 points, 54/39/72 (FG/3P/FT), 9.6 rebounds and 9.8 assists. That’s staggering and necessary. Outside or James the Cavaliers lack players who can create their own shot a la what Kyrie Irving did the last three years. Kevin Love is good, but he’s posting similar numbers to the third-wheel numbers he had during the last three seasons.
Cleveland makes up for their lack of versatility by shooting the lights out from deep or slashing. In both events, their offense is either completed or initiated by James. You can’t stop James entirely, but if Indiana can limit half of his game, that would be a different story.
During the Pacers home win against the Warriors, Indy did as good a job not giving up uncontested shots. Here’s another example where Indy closed out on two open Klay Thompson threes in two seconds.Here’s another when Kevin Durant tried to iso a three and Thaddeus Young wouldn’t let him. Indy wouldn’t let the Warriors just pop-a-shot like they usually do, and it led to a 20-point Pacers win.
Cleveland averages 3 made threes less a game in their losses. Pestering the Cavs’ three-point shooters would lead to tougher attempts, fewer assists for James and a better chance for the Pacers to win.
Myles Turner needs to show up, and if not, Domantas Sabonis better
The series X-Factor is Myles Turner, who has been both brilliant and mediocre over the last two months. Unfortunately for everyone, Turner has been more mediocre than good recently, posting a single digit or negative GameScore in 10 of the last 13 games. But he can be brilliant too, like his 24 and 8 outing against the Clippers or the 25 and 6 against Philadelphia on March 13th. So, it’s not like there is no hope of him playing well, and if he doesn’t play well Indiana’s probably in trouble.
Unless…
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…Domantas Sabonis can cover for him. Sabonis have been averaging 11.5 points and 6.4 rebounds in the eight games since he came back from the ankle problem. Those aren’t absurd numbers, but they are steady. And, as he showed April 8 against Charlotte when he dropped 30, he can go big too. Now this isn’t an argument that Sabonis should start over Turner, it’s the opposite. Give Turner the start to see what he’s got going. If Turner’s off then you have Sabonis and Al Jefferson to turn to.
All and all, the Pacers should have the advantage in the post. Neither team has all that much of an advantage on the glass, but the Pacers will have the size advantage. Philandering aside, the Cavs have spent the last two weeks actively giving up on Tristian Thompson (he averaged 7.5 minutes a game in games 80 and 81, before playing 29 in a finale where the Cavs played no key rotation players more than 10 minutes). So, it’s probably safe to assume they aren’t viewing him as a key piece.
That leaves the recently-signed and physically-limited Kendrick Perkins and Larry Nance Jr. -who has also been relegated to the fringe of the second unit- as the only usable post players. If Cleveland sticks with James, Jeff Green and Kevin Love in their front court one of that trio will have to guard Sabonis and Turner. If Turner and/or Sabonis are on point, the advantage points to the Pacers on offense.
The miscellaneous
1. The Pacers are by far the better defensive team, but that’s not what this brief section is specifically about. It’s about thievery. Since the All-Star break, Indiana averages slightly over 10 steals a game, first in the NBA. The Cavs, on the other hand, are sixth in the league in turnover percentage (the Pacers are 12th), meaning there aren’t many teams more sure-handed than the Cavs. One of these has to give, it better not be the Pacers.
2. All year long, the Pacers have been great at playing in close games. Indiana has won 64% of their close games, fifth in the league. That’s nice, however, the Cavs are third winning 67% of theirs. If this series is full of close games, Indy will have to keep their heads because they don’t have an outright advantage, but that hasn’t stopped Indy against the Cavs in the past.
Next: Pacers need more spacing from Myles Turner
4. To close here’s a fun little tidbit. While the Indiana rotation is obvious (1: Collison, 2: Oladipo, 3: Bogdanovic, 4: Thad Young, 5: Turner, second unit: Joseph, Stephenson, Booker and Sabonis, tenth wheel: Robinson); the Cavs has been rather haphazard.
So, I combed through their recent boxscores and here’s their likely rotation: point guard: George Hill (27.4 average minutes played recently), shooting guard: Rodney Hood (27.3), small forward: LeBron James (38.1), power forward: Jeff Green (28.6), center: Kevin Love (30.4). Their two key reserves are: J.R. Smith (24.4) and Jordan Clarkson (22.8). Secondary reserves: Jose Calderon (19.3), Kyle Korver (17.8) and Larry Nance Jr. (17.5).