The NBA playoffs begin in just over two weeks. Let’s preview a series against every potential first-round opponent for the Pacers. For our final installment, let’s examine the Cleveland Cavaliers.
2012. 2013. 2014. 2017. These are all of the years LeBron James eliminated the Indiana Pacers from the playoffs. In four of Indiana’s last five postseason trips, Kings James has sent them home.
LeBron has been in the finals every year since he started playing basketball in Miami. The common notion is that it will happen again this coming June. An injury to Kyrie Irving makes his path somewhat easy again, sans the talented Toronto Raptors. It is unlikely any team could stop him in a seven-game series.
But hold on now common folk. The Pacers beat the Cavaliers three times this season in four tries, and that becomes four in five tries if you include the preseason. Even with Myles Turner out, the Pacers won by 17 in Cleveland back in November. They have found a way to get it done against a talented Cavaliers team all season long.
The caveat: The Cavaliers roster looks vastly different than any of the times the Pacers squared off with it. They acquired Rodney Hood, George Hill, Larry Nance, and Jordan Clarkson since Indiana last saw them, and they are a completely different force. The roster acquired locker room harmony when they shipped away Isaiah Thomas. The Pacers were 3-1 against the old Cavs. These are new Cavs.
Could the postseason be any different? Could the Pacers finally take down LeBron this year? Let’s break it down and find out.
Point guard matchup: Darren Collison v George Hill
Extreme bias alert. I love NBA players from Indianapolis. Ipso Facto, I love George Hill.
Hill may be a perfect fit next to LeBron James. Pacers fans know how great of a defender he can be, and he is completely wet from three-point range. Indiana fans clamored that he was more of a shooting guard than a point guard, and next to LeBron he can be that type of player. He guards the other teams best guard on D while being a spot-up sniper on offense. All the while, James handles the ball-handling duties.
Because of his excellent fit, he may be more impactful than Collison in this series. But this season, he has not been the better player. Even though Hill is a great shooter from downtown, he is four percent below Collison from long-range on the year. He turns it over more than DC. He is less crisp and smooth. Collison is just a more talented player.
So in actually this one is hard to say. Better talent or better fit? I can’t decide, and I can’t find anything to ding George Hill for. Let’s call it a wash.
Advantage: Nobody.
Shooting guard matchup: Victor Oladipo v Rodney Hood
JR Smith started over 60 games for the Cavs this year, but recently they have pivoted and let his shot-creation come off the bench. In his place, Rodney Hood gets the nod at the two guard, and he has done well in Cleveland.
Since the trade, Hood has been a stud driving to the basket. He’s finished 68 percent of his shots at the rim in Celevand thanks to all the new spacing he has to drive with force. Combine that with 50 percent shooting on long twos and it is obvious why he is excelling so much in his new uniform.
But I just wasted a bunch of time telling you all that. He is worse than Victor Oldipo. It isn’t close.
Advantage: Pacers.
Small Forward Matchup: Bojan Bogdanovic v LeBron James
Bojan is shooting 39.8 percent from deep. LeBron is shooting just 36.6 percent. Advantage, Indiana.
Obviously kidding. I love Bojan as much as the next guy, and he has been as important as anyone to the Pacers top-10 offense this season.
But LeBron is the best player of all time. He is the King. Next question, please.
Advantage: Cavaliers.
Power Forward Matchup: Thaddeus Young v Kevin Love
Kevin Love is criminally underrated. I think the phrase “criminally underrated” is overused, but it is applicable here. Kevin Love is really, really good. And if you don’t think so, you are a criminal. You should receive a small fine. Learn more about basketball.
But you know who else is really good at basketball? Thaddeus Young. Last season, in the Cavaliers-Pacers series, Young matched up with LeBron on defense. That might be the case again this year. Young becomes bounds more important if he is locked in on James, and he has shown that he can hang with the best recently. He has done well containing Giannis Antetokounmpo and other stars when called upon to do so. He’s up for the task.
However, that could (read: will) take away from Young’s energy on offense. And it will also matchup either Myles Turner or Bojan on Kevin Love, which opens up some options for Love on offense.
Thad is great and will be important in this series. But Kevin Love is just better.
Advantage: Cavaliers.
Center matchup: Myles Turner v Tristan Thompson/Larry Nance
My guess before writing this would have been that Larry Nance will get the starting nod for Cleveland. However, Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com reported just yesterday that Cavaliers Head Coach Ty Lue will have to decide between starting Nance or Tristan Thompson. Thus, we will look at both. Sorta.
For Turner specifically, Thompson is probably a more challenging matchup. Nance is a high effort guy who makes countless winning plays on both ends of the floor. Nance can defend in space better than TT, and while neither can shoot from deep, Nance is more useful around the perimeter on offense.
So why is TT a bigger challenge for Turner? Rebounding. He can grab every miss on both ends of the floor. The Cavs probably don’t win the 2016 finals without the extra possessions he gets them on the glass.
Turner has grown into one hell of a player. He can protect the rim and stretch the floor. That’s where he can take advantage of Thomspon, he can extend the floor and make TT defend him in space. But Thompson can kill him on the glass and give the Cavaliers high-powered offense more possessions. That is a recipe for disaster.
If Thompson starts, the rebounding battle becomes a key to the series. Turner is slightly better and can take advantage of both Thompson and Nance in many areas. But pulling down boards is important. In terms of talent, Turner wins. In terms of impact on this series… I’m not sure.
Advantage: Nobody.
Pacers Bench vs Cavaliers Bench
This one is weird. LeBron will probably play 45 minutes in every game of this series, and the LeBron James with four shooters unit off the bench is incredibly deadly (remember game three last year?). Jose Calderon, Kyle Korver, Jordan Clarkson, JR Smith, Cedi Osman, Jeff Green, and whoever doesn’t start between Nance and Thompson makes for a talented bench with tons of shooters.
The Pacers reserves have more versatility than Cleveland’s. Cory Joseph could be a difference maker in slowing the Cavs down. Sabonis’ and Booker’s rebounding could be massive in this series (see the “Centers” section). Lance vs LeBron is always something.
But the Cavaliers have the perfect, tailor-made bench to play with the King. They all look great alongside LeBron and every unit they throw out is potent on offense. Even the best possible defensive unit the Pacers have couldn’t stop the LBJ + shooters group, so they would have to outscore them.
The problem? No Pacers lineup, reserves or starters, could outscore that group.
Advantage: Cavaliers.
Coaches: Nate McMillan v Tyronn Lue
Get your “LeBron is the head coach” jokes out of the way now.
Truly, the hardest job to analyze is LeBron’s head coach. How much are they actually doing well versus how much is just “let James do his thing and get out of the way”. As a result, Lue is seen as a lesser head coach.
He shouldn’t be. But Lue runs some solid plays that are full of flare screens and Horns sets. He’s a good coach, and he crafts his sets to fit the personnel he has on the floor better than most coaches.
But McMillan has been awesome this year. He always knows the right players to have on the court in the clutch, and his defensive scheme is working exceptionally well now that the whole roster has bought in. It will be hard to stop LeBron regardless, but the scheme is great.
Lue is better than the common notion. But it doesn’t matter. McMillan wins the matchup.
Advantage: Pacers.
Full credit to the Pacers: Going 3-1 against the Cavs is an impressive feat. They way they were able to pick apart Cleveland in the regular season should give fans of LeBron some pause that this series may not be super easy should it happen.
Next: Post-Game Grades: Pacers hammer healthier Warriors
But his Cavs team has a new look. They are even more potent on offense and don’t suck any more on defense.
And they still have LeBron. He’s been to seven straight finals for a reason, and until someone finally dethrones him, he gets the benefit of the doubt. The Pacers should hope they can avoid him, and the Cavs, for as long as possible in the postseason.
Prediction: Clevland in six.